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Saturday was a fairly rubbish day in total. Yeah, Zanza won at drifted odds of 16/1 but the rest were very poor (wish I got on at 28/1).
Exeter 3:00 – Emmpressive Lady 25/1 (1pt win) only two places, so going for the straight win.
Once again I've found myself going for a Chase debutante on an outsider of the field with EMMPRESSIVE LADY.
This mare was a winner for us last season and though she does have a fair amount to do to beat the ones at the head of the market based on ratings, I don't think it's that simple to write her off. She is a horse who likes this track, winning on both occasions she has raced here, but the thing which is of major interest is that she has won on her second run after a break on two occasions (the only two times she has ran after a break without taking another) which reads well for her for this race considering this is her second run of this season, having run over hurdles last time out where she evidently needed the run.
She has jumped fences in public before when finishing 3rd in here sole PTP which came over 2m. She is a horse who is better over longer than 2m so that final position seems decent enough, and proves she can jump a fence. Her hurdles form from last season looks decent with the win over Coeur Serein who is a good operator and is currently rated 140 over fences.
She has recently had a wind-op, so that should help her finish off her races and though this ground might be questionable for her, her pedigree suggests she should be fine, with the Dam being effective on good ground and Jeremy has produced many good ground horses.
I think the odds-on favourite is ridiculously short for what we've seen from her. She's the unexposed one in the race but the form doesn't look great and the rating of 142 could flatter her. I'd have said Kapga De Lily is the one to watch out for, but 2/1 also looks skinny, so I've decided to take a chance on the newcomer who could spring a surprise if jumping well on chase debut.
Exeter 4:00 – Moka De Vassy (1pt)
It's about time that Walking On Air was the price he is for a race as he has burnt plenty of people's fingers over the last season or so. Though he might be deemed to be a backable price, I don't think he's as good as people originally thought. For me, this race is MOKA DE VASSY‘s chance to get his head in front.
This is a step up in trip into the unknown for him, but based on the last run at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 which was won by Rock My Way it looks like he needs this kind of trip for him to be seen to be effect. He was well beaten in 5th/10 by 12L but he was held up from off the pace and made some decent ground up the Cheltenham hill in the manner of a horse who has the ability and could land a few races when upped in trip. The form of that race isn't bad, the winner finished behind a horse I like called Weveallbeencaught the time before who will be a nice 3m chaser for next year, and he was ahead of Pembroke who is a highly regarded horse from the Skelton yard.
Moka De Vassy ran in some top races, so connections must feel like he is an above-average type. Last season in his juvenile year he bumped into Pied Piper and then ran in a Grade 2 at Kempton, both times over 2m, which evidently is too short. They've gone for the first time headgear, which could help him out further, and considering this is a Pertemps qualifier, if they want to try and get him in for the Cheltenham Festival, he'll have to be winning this and winning it well to get a high enough rise by the handicapper.
Exeter 4:30 – Senior Citizen 10/3 (1pt)
As I've said on countless occasions, the Veterans' races are my cup of tea. This is another belter with horses who have all had very good careers. I think it's best of going for a ‘new' veteran, a horse who is a 10yo in these kinds of contests. Based on his last run, SENIOR CITIZEN could have a fair bit more to give off a mark of 138.
The final statement could sound a bit daft as he is now a 10yo, but for some reason, Alan King and the McNeill's have kept this horse to 2m 4f or trips similar for the majority of his career, but based on his run lto at Doncaster, you've got to be asking questions why that has happened. He absolutely cruised through that race, sat prominently off a strong pace, travelled like a travelly thing as Matt Chapman would say and when asked to go and win his race he wooshed clear and won with a fair bit in hand.
With Ramses De Teille and Run To Milan (previous winner of this race) in the lineup, it could be a very strongly run race, and I hope they take each other on for the lead so a closer can pick up the pieces.
10/3 seems a fair enough price to get involved at.
Exeter - 3:00 pm
25/1 @ Bet365
Exeter - 4:00 pm
10/3 @ Bet365
Exeter - 4:30 pm