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Friday was a poor day and only one I can apologise for. Silver Lady just couldn't get into it and neither could Ylang Ylang. The latter needs further, that's 100% evident now, but I don't think sitting so far off the pace helped her. Chindit tried his socks off as he always does, and at times I thought he might've gone on, but the winner is 5/5 on the Rowley Mile now, which you can't fault.
Newmarket 3:00 – Vandeek 13/8 (2pt Bet365)
When studying Vandeek‘s win at Deauville on ‘very soft' ground you'd probably think it's worth taking him on now he's on faster ground, but that very soft ground that the Racing Post is total nonsense, it was much quicker that day and the times would suggest that so I think he will be perfectly fine on the faster ground at Newmarket.
It's a shame Atzeni has to give up the ride on this horse as he is now in Hong Kong, but the Crisford team have got a great replacement in James Doyle. On all known form Vandeek is the best horse in this race, and his form is head and shoulders clear of the rest in this field and he has finished ahead of a few. 15/8 is probably a fair price, arguably quite generous from the bookies, but I can see why River Tiber is fancied to potentially overturn the form as he was held up in Deauville and was running on strongly, plus the fact he is trained by the master Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, but as well saw with Ylang Ylang yesterday his horses do get beat and they aren't always guaranteed to win when they come over and challenge the British.
Newmarket 3:40 – Thunder Ball 40/1 (0.5pt EW SkyBet 8pl)
If you play the lottery then Thunder Ball will be a fancy of yours in the big handicap of the day, the Cambridgeshire.
This is obviously one of the hardest handicaps to win as a punter and an owner/trainer/jockey, due to the sheer size of the field. It's very rare you see a flat field with 35 runners in it, so picking the winner out of them is a challenging task but I think Thunder Ball is a decent EW bet. I think being up with the pace in races like this can only be an advantage as you will not want your horse to be scrimmaging for a position or trying to weave a passage through a very busy pack, so having clean open air to run into is where I want my horse to be and Thunder Ball has been ridden that way on a few occasions so I think they might do the same today.
Mohammed Tabti is probably a name many of you won't recognise but he has been going under the radar this year as a progressive apprentice who rides a lot for he Paul & Oliver Cole team. The Cole's clearly think he is more than ready for a big ride and see his 5lb claim as very crucial to this horse's chances of winning. He is great for his 5lb claim and when you combine that with the fact that this yard won this race a couple of years ago with Majestic Dawn in 2020 winning at odds of 40/1, with the same horse being placed the year before, it shows they are very capable of getting one ready for this race.
This horse ran a very big race at Royal Ascot in a big field handicap which had 29 runners in it, he finished 4th and I think that is great to see as he will be used to the hustle and bustle of the big field, and clearly, something he thrives off, which isn't every horse's cup of tea.
Longchamp 1:33 – Emily Dickinson 7/4 (2pt Bet365)
As always, the French going descriptions are very conflicting but according to Turftrax the ground is good and good to soft in places. The weather forecast appears to have no rain falling so will Trueshan run? who knows. Even if he does run I'll be siding with Emily Dickinson.
I put her up at Goodwood in the Goodwood Cup which was won by Quickthorn who got a very easy lead and motored home after being uncontested, but Emily Dickinson did best of the rest and finished 2nd. I've always thought that she is a really strong stayer so the 2m 4f today, though it will be a stamina test, I think she'll relish it. She did well over 2m 4f in Ascot Gold Cup when she finished 4th on very quick ground, so that proves she'll handle the surface today, seemingly better than the favourite.
Trueshan proved last time out that he still possesses plenty of ability, but he is a very quirky horse which is strange at his age, and his free-going nature will massively go against him today over such a long trip.
Longchamp 2:58 – Louis Quatorze 33/1 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower 4pl)
I won't be putting too much on Louis Quatorze but I think he is worth a small bet in this.
David Menuisier does well when sending his horses to France, and he won this race back in 2019 with an average-looking horse, so it's very interesting that he sends two horses for this specific race. Jamie Spencer takes the ride on my selection so is going to be the stables number one pick, and though he hasn't set the world alight in his two races to date he has shown potential. He has been keen in his races so far, so if he can cut that out he will have a nice EW chance in this race.
Longchamp 3:33 – Shamida 11/2 (1pt Bet365)
On all known form Shamida has a lot of improving to do to mix it with some of these horses in this race, but I don't think we've seen anywhere near her best yet.
Dermot Weld does very well with this kind of horse and the fact he has decided to bring her to Longchamp is a big indicator that they strongly fancy their chances for this. She is a strong stayer, which she'll need to be to win this race as there will be no hiding places with a strong pace on offer. The ground should be to her liking with the expected good ground, with all of her wins coming on a similar surface.
Her run at the Curragh in the Irish Leger Trial Group 3 is better than it looks. It was only a four-runner field, and not a strong renewal at all, but the race was a total farce and run at a very slow tempo. That slow pace wouldn't have suited Shamida but she showed her class and versatility to win and see off the persistent runner-up. Dermot has a decent record at Longchamp with the small amount he sends over, so I've optimistic.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Try with this to start the Saturday slaughter
Sat
13:45
silks
2 – Hearitfortheboys @ 11/1
Win
13.45 Ripon
BOL
your selection has never run. the jockey never rides for the trainer and it’s 11/1 up against two short priced horses with only 3 places paid…. granted at least one outsider will be placing and the Tinkmeister had one go really close last night but he is less than 5% with his 2yos so you’re better off sticking all your dosh on Liverpool who are gonna absolutely smash you to bits tomorrow. dare i ask what compelled you to share this with us??
Looks like just the type of horse that would win on a Saturday to me 😂
I hope you eat your words robyn after the spurs game later… Liverpool ain’t smashing anyone today.
Some good racing to watch today but lots of short priced favs at both Newmarket and Paris so not much of a betting proposition unless you look at doubles or trebles but not for me.
In the Cambridgeshire when a fav is so short I generally try to take them on but Greek Order is potentially a group 2 or even group 1 horse next year running off 95. He’s also got the perfect draw in 25 (the last 8 winners came from a 20+ draw) and ground will be ideal. So sometimes you just have to go with the fav.
Greek Order 7/2
The only other horse I’m hoping wins today is Horizon Dore in the 4.43 at Longchamp who I put up on here a few weeks ago for the Champion Stakes at 20/1 and is now best priced 6/1 but all that will mean nothing if he doesn’t go and do the business today.
BOL
Actually I’ve decided to have a go at a few more at Newmarket
1.50 Ghostwriter 7/2
2.25 Cherry Blossom 6/1 ew
3.00 Task Force 7/1 ew
Robyn do you have any tips for today at all
Need all the help I can get this weekend terrible week over all lol
I’m sure Matt chapman got a few bankers for you on the opening show 😂
wish i could stig, wasted too much time looking at the cambridgeshire, nothing is too strong in that given I am punting some outsiders with bets for interest. all of mine today are sketchy so dont chase fortunes with them.
1540 zozimus is 20s and unfancied but is well hcapped in the cambridgeshire…. i punted a few and posted wall of text on yday’s thread.
15:55 mkt rasen – ONE TRUE KING 11/2 four places
NTD won 4 of his last 5, his horse effectively won this race last year and is just about an EW price, off 5lbs lower, lazy pick given not checked rivals, and it seems to obvious but happy to risk despite reservations. KILLER CLOWN weighted OK.
franny norton at chester is interesting, with charlie johnstons running seemingly OK.
hit and hopes:
1440 hay – Spoof 12/1 4 places
1515 hay – Lakota Blue 10/1 4 places
1345 rip – Ingleby Ivy 8/1 3 places
i analyse markets to help so, if i find anything will post them late so keep refershing :D
FRANNY THE GRANNY !!! Course specialist by all accounts 😂 he needs to retire like Hayley turner should 😂
BUH BUH B UH BUHHHH BOBBUHUBUUBUOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.
never slate my man again dazz, i want 100 lines posted, i will never call franny a granny againny.
ghost writer 1.50 nb
Nice one 👍
cheers dazzman 1979
Merlin the wizard 3.40 ew nap
limoncelar 11.35 ew angers France well done all winners yesterday
jetjoy11.50 ew .moulins France
jasnas secret 2.25
gallerist 12.23 Longchamp
Longchamp 🇫🇷
1-33 trueshan 13-8 UNIBET .
Had a prep for this recently which he won, beat Stradivarius in this by 4 lengths 2 years ago.
More rain would help though, run for oscar the danger as he stays the trip comfortably being a decent hurdler.
2-58 stangheli 20-1 ew 4 places paddy power.
3-33 Shamida 6-1 ew 4 places CORALS
4-43 horizon dore 11-8 bet365 NAP *🏇*
I think under certain conditions trueshan is up there with the best stayers I’ve seen 🏇
cheers got on myself but didnt watch it. i watched him last time though when he was pulling begging hollie to let him go, which she did eventually. watching him win the fighting fifth as he manoeuvred his was through the field in the home straight was lovely. best of luck with rest if i see them will stick couple nuggets on.
Stangheli 3rd at 22-1 😬
tried to bet it as suspended :D boom boom though.
NAP wins 😬.
Not a bad day today
Well done winners 🏇
4:40 rip off ripon – kardia 3/1
Chapplehyam it the first ☘️☘️Newmarket 25-1☘️☘️gl all
3:40 Newmarket- crack shot 16/1 on the nose !
340 – one not mentioned is KILLYBEGS WARRIOR, 18/1 is an absolutely monstrous price.
Those yellow and grey silks again ! Activated 11/1
INGLEBY IVYYYYYYY, i dont care if the rest lose, after race two… WHAT A DAY.
Well done nice work 👍🏦
some may question the value of posting after a race, but TASHKHAN what a huge price regular group horse in a hcap on his lowest rating for some time, didn’t put it up but chucked 5 on it when last years race winner was 7 above and co-fav… easy game :D
Nice one data 💪🏇
great run from spoof, 2nd around 12s. the comms team at haydock said yday nothing is coming from the back, if that helps in anyway. glad that didn’t win i’d have lost my voice.
🇬🇧
Couple of Ew plays.
3.40…Eagles Way 25/1 4 places
4.25…Sparks Fly 16/1 4 places
GL all rest of the day. 👍
Bloody hell red eye ! You got a double digit winner !!! Makes a change from a 4/6 shot 😂😂👍
Well done again Rizzel you would of got place money depending who you bet with and a bit of a drift 👍
skybet do not give BOG with extra place races. almost made me retire.
Nobody can escape the horse addiction!!! 😂
islanova 5.15 Frankel filly just cannot ignore these horses well done all winners today
nope Ryan Moore just couldn’t be arsed on it
franberi 4.40
yup well done rizzel drifted to 80/1 from 50/1 nice
sky bet did pay 8 places on the race so well done
Haha granny franny got a 11/1 winner and Hayley got a 25/1 winner they must of read my post and finally got fired up for winning a race !
sickness, i had her first winner, actually clicked ont he 25/1 shot because silks similiar to strong johnson who won 30 mins beforehand. oh well. got 20 up to 120, lost all on cambridgeshire besides 1 place, whacked that on cyan blue 13/2 and that on sparks fly ew winning at 8s, go back to 70 and booom, gone again, god bless saturdays. johnston across the card 5 minute double too, KANTS. one of my best days in terms of winners/places though betting despite ending back all square. think ill give the thread a break maybe cya 2moro
It is pure and utter torment all the time ! The bookies play the game well making you doubt your gut feelings all the time as you think this market knows more than you but more often than not the market is always wrong ! Or are they ? I bet the real market they don’t show you and use that to create a fake market I’m sure ! Not that I’m bitter or anything 😂 I know I will lose more often than not but it’s all about the roller coaster of emotions and the buzz when you do win that keeps us craving more but the bookies always win we know that deep down 😂 never mind will do it all again 2 Moro and if you did win today they will get it back 2 Moro 😂 oh and I had gone rouge earlier but never put it up 😂😂
i personally believe i can win every year having at least one bet per day every day to the same stake. but that requires operating like a pro and taking emotion out of it. i find the more time you invest in the sport the more chance you have, like rizzle mentioned in his write up not many people will have heard of mohammed tabti… i mean, come on, if you are betting every day you should know almost all trainers, all jockeys and which ones ride regularly for which, that is a basic requirement to succeed. you learn this by following results, you’ll be aware of combinations that are rampant years before you hear ITV pundits speak about them as ‘up and coming’.
back on point, there is little excitement in having 1-2 bets per day at a level stake, slowly building profit, even if you’re winning, all things require discipline, your £5 stake a day winning you a couple hundred over a year can eventually reach levels which mean the buzz of gambling isn’t missed. you could even have a strategic betting system, and then have a lump sum to go crazy with on a Saturday…
You think you get tormented?? I am at a stage where I believe I should be able to pick a winner/place in 90% of races… and gutted when me 33/1 instinct horse wins :D I suppose removing the torment is easy but it removes some fun, if you have a stake small enough where you can chance all of your gut picks, then the problem becomes if you’re correct enough of the time that you aren’t winning enough, and if you’re losing then your methods need adjusting.
we know the game is corrupt. and we should also know that the market analysts are not as good as we can be. it is abundantly clear they are not using methods we can use, to set the market there is obviously some work done and then it is guided by money, or is it as you say. they do not dig as deep as we can, lots of things are overlooked and with so much racing you can find plenty of good bets. it is a very hard sport and needs to be taken seriously if wanting to win, if not treat it as a recreation and only lose what you dont mind. look at winners previous form and try to spot ways in which you could have identify it winning pre race.
just by your tips and picks, i can see you are barking up most of the right trees, racing is huge, best to have a niche, like you mate recoba covering the american stuff ;) or elvis doing well with the french, AW was where i started and expanded from there. track your bets and even cross examine them, not that i ever have. but refinement is possible. i bet late as possible just naturally unless heavily studying and banging out big prices the night before.
i am losing the point to anything in this, but yes, check results and trust your gut. stable form is a great guide, look at my 3 ew punts today… tinkler and faye had one last night together placing at dbl figure price, only 1 out today, check the form is it remotely possible?? yes ok then easy. murtagh and nicolls, winner for me recently, knew one outsider was placed, had a run already, discounted one fav etc booom wins 11s. spoof, just a combo i know is capable of popping up through years of being involved, form wise fine for price and 10 ew returned 350… for 3 places, CRAZY!!!!! its leaving the rest of the racing or picking out another 2-3 and placing the same bet which can be peoples issue, start betting race to race or throwing all discipline out the window to get back on track… the longer you keep yourself in the game the tables will turn, like a game of poker, or most things in life, use ur £100 roll on 5 £20 bets and it aint gonna last long, if you hit a couple get to £300, you will be betting 60s and 80s. that is all good but no point to betting if not accruing money.. it’s like you said and most of us know, the buzz of winning and spinning it up, just is often not a limit we cap at and can see it all dwindle away. on a saturday i like to start with X amount and bet all sorts of sizes race dependant a balancing act, and eventually ill land a 50 from a 5 type of bet and the bankroll builds, then have a cap of say 200 for e.g. and every time u go over that amount, withdraw it, forcing u to bet sensible. anyway, enough, point is, the choice is ours, we got all options open to us and no one to blame but ourselves for anything.