Racing tips: Vadream will be praying for the rain to fall at Newmarket

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Unfortunately, the rain came a bit too late for Like A Tiger who had to run on ground which was probably far too quick for him. He travelled nicely into the race, but he doesn't possess the same turn on foot on that type of ground as the others in the field.

Newmarket 4:00 – Vadream 18/1 (1pt EW 4pl WHill)

I was doing a rain dance for Like A Tiger but the rain came too late, I'll be doing the same for Vadream who also prefers a slower surface. This mare is a very good sprinter when she gets her conditions and I think if the forecast rain makes the ground anywhere from good to soft to soft, we're in business.

This is her first try over 5f and I think that will be fine for her. She possesses a lot of speed and stays 6f out very well, so if you combine the hopefully testing ground, the track and the speed from the 5f, she will come out on top as she will be staying on strongly when others are flagging and she'll handle the conditions better than any other in the race.

She has some good form to her name, and her recent win on seasonal reappearance was very impressive. She might be overlooked in this contest, as she is a mare lining up against the males, but I think she is a huge player.

Newmarket 5:15 – Shaquille 3/1 (2pt)

We haven't seen Julie Camacho's Shaquille this year, but he is a very big player based on the form of his juvenile season and he will have improved plenty over the winter months.

When I said we haven't seen this horse, that's a lie, we did see him up at Newcastle but he decided he didn't fancy running on the All-Weather Championship day and refused to enter the stalls, so we did see him on a racecourse, but not running. He was very well fancied for that race before being pulled out and I think that's significant as we haven't seen him, he was running in a competitive race, yet this market vibes were strong.

The form of his 2yo campaign was good, which saw him win on his last two starts, once on the turf and then on the AW at Wolverhampton. The turf win looks decent with the 2nd, 3rd and 6th all boosting the form to a decent level. That run gives me confidence if the rain comes that he'll be okay, as that was on good to soft and he handled that with ease. The AW win has seen the 2nd and 4th win since, and the 3rd has gone up a fair few pounds in the handicap without winning.

Goodwood 1:55 – Araminta 16/1 (1pt PaddyPower)

I think the fact you can get 18/1 or similar odds on Araminta is a bit crazy.

Yes, she has to improve from her winning debut effort to get involved in this, but that was an impressive start to her career and when you take into consideration she ran to a rating of 88 off one run and she will have probably needed that run, it's a great starting point. Being a 3yo there's plenty of improvement to come from her, but also she receives a lot of weight from the older horses, and based on that, she doesn't have to find tonnes with her receiving 13lbs from all but one horse in the race.

Her pedigree suggests she'll handle the soft ground, but also the way she sliced through the soft ground on debut makes me want it to absolutely pour down at Goodwood as I think she will handle that ground better than most, apart from maybe Zellie who had some good pieces of form as a juvenile and ran well in the 1000 Guineas last year.

Henry Candy doesn't have too many horses these days, but he is doing great so far this year, with him operating at a 23% SR and a 30% in the last 14 days. Henry isn't one to rush horses, so the fact he has put this young filly into a Class 1 race on just her second start suggests they think a lot of her and that she won't be out of place.

Goodwood 4:20 – Kuwait City 9/1 (1pt EW 3pl B365)

Kuwait City was put up last Friday when the Sandown card was abandoned due to the bad ground conditions, I had him tipped up for the opening race that day and this is the race which he was meant to run in but it is at Goodwood instead.

Ground conditions at Goodwood are currently good to soft, but they are expecting a couple of millimetres of rain before racing so the ground will more than likely turn to soft, similar to what I was expecting at Sandown. I put up Kuwait City thinking he would handle the ground much better than those in the race last week, and the same comments apply, even though there are a couple of different faces.

I think he is much better than the opening odds of 12/1 would suggest and this time last week he opened up at decent odds and was backed into favourite when they noticed he handles soft conditions, so I'm expecting him to go off much shorter.

He is drawn 7 of 7 which is a bit of a concern as that will put him against the rail and he isn't normally one to race prominently so he'll have a wall of horses in front of him. Hopefully, they have a different plan if he breaks well and they try and make the running and make full use of the good draw.

Thirsk 3:40 – Pisanello 6/1 (1pt EW 4pl)

I like the angle of when a horse goes close in a race one year and connections decide to go back for the same race 12 months on, and that is the case with Pisanello.

Pisanello finished 3rd in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark, which is effectively a 6lb higher mark as Mark Winn rides Pisanello today and he takes off a very handy 5 lbs. There is a lot of rain expected to fall at Thirsk and that should change the going to soft at the very least, if the forecast is true. Though Pisanello has been running well on faster surfaces he was a dual Soft ground winner when trained in France, including a Class 1 Listed race a few years ago, so maybe his optimal conditions have been on a testing surface and he's just not been lucky enough to race on them all too often when being trained in England.

The time off the track doesn't bother me as he won on seasonal reappearance last year after 200 days off the track off a handicap mark of 77, which is what he races off today when you take Mark Winn's claim into consideration. This race is obviously a tough one, but he is weighted to go well and we all know how good David O'Meara is with these kinds of races of 7f – 1m and he'll have Pisanello spot on for this race.

Doncaster 5:55 – Louella 33/1 (0.5pt EW Paddy)

You can often find some decent value in 2yo races, it's just a big gamble going for the ones who are unraced as you don't know what to expect and you're simply going off pedigrees. However, I think the market is massively overlooking the pedigree of Louella.

Invincible Army is a new Sire to the breeding ranks and he has already had a winner from last weekend with Richard Hannon's Love Billy Boy winning on debut on good to soft ground, recording and RPR of 88. Apparently, a lot of the Invincible Army's are very tuned up and look very good for 2yo's, being big and strong and precocious, which isn't a surprise as Invincible Army was like that himself, he was a great-looking horse and was very good as a juvenile.

Doncaster, like most of the tracks today, is expecting a fair amount of rain, so you'll want a horse who will handle the soft ground. I think Louella could handle today's conditions better than the rest based on her pedigree. She is a half-sister to Punchbowl Flyer who is a soft ground specialist sprinter, winning 7x so far and has recorded a peak RPR of 108. The Dam won on soft ground and even Invincible Army won on soft ground and his first winner as a Sire won on good to soft, so that's encouraging.

At odds of 20/1 +, I think she is worth a play, especially when you consider Roger Fell won this race 2 years ago with a newcomer and this filly will be in receipt of plenty of weight with Jonny Peate taking off 5lbs. The race which Roger Fell won this race he won it with a filly and a 5lb claimer, it seems all a bit too much of a coincidence.

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