Racing tips: Unexposed filly Shamida will have too much firepower for her elders

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This part of the thread is normally a recap of the previous day's selections, but I'm out and about on Saturday so unfortunately I can't do that today.

Curragh 4:35 – Shamida 5/2 (2pt)

I put up Shamida at Cork on Friday but she was withdrawn due to some horrendous weather and ground. I thought she would've been fine on the testing ground, but Dermot Weld clearly felt it was the right call to pull her from the race.

The Curragh is expecting a few showers on Saturday so the ground will probably turn to yielding at the most, which should be what Dermot will be perfectly fine with. I think this filly has a progressive profile as I stated the other day and I think she will have too much for the older horses today who don't look amazing. I fully expect Library to be a NR which will leave a decent-sized rule 4, and if she was to run she would've been the main threat. Shamida has won her last two starts and was impressive in defeat to Warm Heart the time before, that filly has franked the form and so have the fillies who were behind Shamida on her two wins. She is a strong stayer, so the small field isn't an ideal scenario as it can become muddling but I expect Chris Hayes to take the initiative and go from the front which he is very good at.

On ratings and weights, Okita Soushi should follow her home, but the others have a big ask to give away the weight to the 3yo. Dawn Rising scrambled home over 2m 5f at Royal Ascot, he might be better over shorter but he was behind Point King in his previous run, and that form doesn't look particularly great. I'd be very surprised if my selection doesn't win this.

Sandown 5:45 – Island Bandit 8/1 (1pt EW)

The Sunday Series is always a competitive card to get stuck into, but I can't leave Island Bandit to go unbacked at the odds.

Heather Main has had a good season so far and does very well with her yard which is clearly a lot smaller than most in the country. This 4yo gelding of Zarak is suited by Sandown and is 2/3 at the track, with the defeat coming on debut as a 2yo on heavy ground, so that's hardly a fair representation as she is much better on faster ground, as she proved when winning on her only other two visits to this venue. She won this race 12 months ago off a mark of 73 which was effectively 68 as Gina Mangan claimed 5lbs that day, which means she will have to run a career best to win this today off a 7lb higher mark with Gina's 3lb claim she has today, but this is a race which has clearly been targetted at because of the 20k on offer which is rare for a horse of Island Bandit's level.

She ran well at Ascot last time and the form looks solid for the Class 4 grade. The 5th and 2nd have come out and won since and the winner still looks capable of winning races in the future of his revised mark.

Heather has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight including a 4.75L win on 28/1 shot Zoulu Chief who was partnered up with today's rider, Gina Mangan. So that shows the odds don't affect this horse's chance of winning and I think he is a cracking EW bet for a race he has clearly been laid out for.

Deauville 3:25 – Valiant Force 6/1 (1pt)

As always with French racing there's a conflicting report on the ground, but I feel like the best source to use is TurfTrax and they claim that Deauville is good to soft on most parts of the track, with a little bit of soft on the straight which won't affect this race. Deauville is expecting sunny spells and the ground should turn to good, so take that into account.

Valiant Force sprung a huge surprise at Royal Ascot when winning at odds of 150/1. Normally you'd think that was a fluke but I think there is plenty of substance to suggest he can continue to improve. The form looks okay, with Elite Status franking the form recently. There's no doubt that there are stronger pieces of form to follow, but I thought he won the Norfolk Stakes with plenty to spare; he was in the lead for a long time and started to get lonely in front which you could notice as he started to wander around.

AMO Racing is really getting into action now and they recently landed their first Group 1 with Adrian Murray's Bucanero Fuerte, he's the trainer of Valiant Force. He will have had them do pieces of work together, so he'll know what level of horse Valiant Force is and it looks like they've got a pacemaker for Valiant Force in the form of Thunder Blue.

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