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Saturday was a bloodbath, and not just for me, but for most punters out there. A couple of my selections ran with credit, one finished 2nd and another finished 4th. The Skelton horse was shocking and The Paddy Pie was equally as bad, as I expected a much better effort from him.
Carlisle 1:20 – Trelawne 11/10 (2pt)
Trelawne always gave the impression he was going to be a nice horse, but one for the future over fences so it's no great surprise to see him chucked into a novice chase race on his fifth run and seasonal reappearance.
It's always risky going for debutantes over fences as you don't know how they will take to them but this lad has plenty of scope about him and I believe he has the class to win this off top weight. Kim Bailey doesn't send too many to Carlisle but when he does they have to be respected as his strike rate is very impressive, especially his chasers which has resulted in 7 wins from 19 runners in his training career, equaling a 37% SR and operating at a profit of +7.88 to level stakes.
Kim won this race a few years ago with a chase debutante who was a decent novice hurdler, and that was Two For Gold who many of you will recognise, he also ran yesterday. That horse made his chase debut off a mark of 132 and he went on to become a 150 horse and win some very nice races. This race doesn't look like a field of particularly well-handicapped horses and of those with the chase experience I thought Brandy McQueen was the main threat to Trelawne, he jumped well on debut and was intelligent at a couple where he got close to, but a 6lb rise in the weights for that race seems harsh and I'd hardly say he's ahead of the handicapper as the race did fall apart a bit.
Carlisle 3:40 – Wasdell Dundalk 7/1 (0.5pt EW 4pl)
I put up a Kim Bailey horse on chase debut in the first race and he has another chase debutante in this race, but this is a very tough type of race to make a chase debut in a hardy handicap with plenty of runners so I'll be staying clear of that one. The one I landed on is an old friend of mine Wasdell Dundalk.
He's been a tip for me on two previous occasions, winning once and finishing as runner-up last time out at Carlisle when finishing strongly behind an even stronger stayer from the Charlie Longsdon yard. That race was over 3m and that's the trip he's been running well over the summer and the start of this new season, winning three on the bounce at Perth on many different types of ground, but what's important is that he handles today's surface nicely. This is a new trip for him today at 3m 2f, and there are obviously going to be doubts until they prove themselves at the trip but he wasn't stopping at the line last time out and the way he went through the race he looked like a winner when turning for home, but it wasn't meant to be.
I'd probably say the previous race was just as tough as today's field, there are a couple of horses I am wary of but my selection is a great price and has the fitness edge on most of these.
Carlisle 4:15 – Denemethy 11/4 (1pt)
Fergal O'Brien sends one horse up to Carlisle and Paddy Brennan makes the trip up for the one ride, which comes in the final race of the day in the bumper.
I don't think Paddy would be wasting him time going up to Carlisle for the last race of the meeting in a 2k bumper if this horse didn't have a very good chance of winning. Fergal won this race back in 2020 with Karl Philippe who turned into a 140 rated horse.
Fergal is 3/6 with bumper runners at Carlisle, with 2 more being placed so it's evidently a track he doesn't mess around with with this specific type of horse.
Carlisle - 1:20 pm
11/8 @ Bet365
Carlisle - 3:40 pm
7/1 @ Bet365
Carlisle - 4:15 pm