This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Talis Evolvere only just managed to get up at Wolverhampton, but was backed in like defeat wasn't in the minds of connections as he went off at 6/5F after being tipped up at 7/2. I don't think the race went to plan with Rossa surrendering the lead to the Johnston runner, and then the runner-up didn't exactly set quick fractions, but Talis Evolvere had the slightly greater stamina and won on the line.
Haydock 2:20 – Blue Fin 11/2 (1pt, Bet365)
The ground is heavy at Haydock, but there is no further rain expected to fall and they haven't put out an inspection in the morning, so it looks like the meeting should remain on. This Chase race over the extended 2m 5f looks like a nice little race with the five runners which take their place, but I thought Blue Fin was being mightily overlooked in the market.
I thought this horse put in a very good effort to finish 2nd on chase debut behind Trelawne at Carlisle on seasonal and chase debut. He jumped nicely, which is always a positive on their first run over fences over rules, and if anything a return to a left-handed track might help as he tended to jump to the left very slightly at a couple of the obstacles. He travelled nicely into the race, but what was nice to see was how well he stayed on after jumping the last when the third horse was pressuring him for the second spot, he pulled clear of the third who had the fitness edge on him and looked like a step up in trip might see him in an even better light.
The handicapper hasn't altered his rating, which is kind as I thought he could've easily gone up a couple of pounds, but based on that I do think he is dangerous to underestimate off this mark. I know PTP form doesn't always work out how you'd like but he was behind Snake Roll by 2L and ahead of Thomas Mor by 10L. The former recently lost his life on chase debut, but he was an exciting horse who'd have been a very nice horse over fences after showing his ability over hurdles when being rated 126 and finishing 3rd in a Grade 2. The latter, is 3/5 over hurdles and is currently rated 141 over hurdles, yet he couldn't land a blow on Blue Fin who finished 3rd in that PTP.
To mention the others I'd probably have the Skelton horse to be the one to worry about. He won on seasonal debut and chase debut, which is a thing of rarity with the Skelton yard at the moment, so if he was to come on for that run he could be a nice horse for the future, but he has been hit with a 7lb hike in the weights. Hurlerontheditch was one of my most unluckiest losers that I've ever backed as he was many lengths clear jumping the last at Warwick, jumped the fence lovely but his feet just couldn't land it. It seems ridiculous that he has been hit with a 10lb rise in the weights, but that is more than enough to put me off, as well as David Bass not making the trip up to Haydock.
Haydock 3:30 – Sam Brown 4/1 (1pt)
For the life of me I cannot understand how Sam Brown is the odds he is, I think this is a very winnable race for the top weight and if he puts in a performance anywhere near the level of the Punchestown race which he was set it to win until falling at the last, that would easily be enough to land this Veterans' Chase.
I can see why people will be backing Good Boy Bobby after two wins in the Veterans' Chases, but he's now returning to a tough mark of 139. He was getting ridiculously well-handicapped at the start of this season and he arguably got away with the win at Chepstow, and I'm saying that when I stuck him up as a selection that day. He then went and won at Sandown, but that race doesn't look as good as this race and off 4lbs higher and over slightly further on heavy ground, I think he is horrendous value. Nestor Park is the horse which people love to back, but he is one of those who will run his race more often than not and finish in the places.
Sam Brown was a very smart chaser, especially on testing ground, he has won a Grade 3 over today's trip and a Grade 2 over 2m 4f on heavy ground, as well as a runner-up to Royale Pagaille over today's C&D in a Grade 2 in January 2022. Obviously, he has something to prove after being pulled-up in the Badger Beer chase at Wincanton just 25 days ago, but at the age of 11 he was more than likely always going to need that run and this is a much easier assignment.
Haydock Park - 2:20 pm
11/2 @ Bet365
Haydock Park - 3:30 pm