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A couple of poor runs from yesterday's selections. The Godolphin horse showed why they gelded him before his first run, he is quirky and his head carriage doesn't help him at all, the Gosden horse won nicely. Luke Morris gave the Sir Mark Prescott horse a stinking ride, but the winner did it easily in the end and did handle the ground much better than I anticipated.
Kempton 5:15 – Ibn Aldar 9/2 (1pt PaddyPower)
It's a big field, but it doesn't look to be full of horses who seem to be ahead of their mark, other than the market leader Ibn Aldar.
I think Kempton will suit this horse if he is given the same type of ride as last time out at Lingfield. It was his first start in over 500 days, but he won going away at the line and I think with a more forward ride/longer straight, it could've been 3-4 lengths with ease, but sitting towards the back at Lingfield is often a struggle, but he made it look easy when he hit top stride. The handicapper has put him up 5 lbs for that win, which is probably on the lenient side as the winning margin didn't show how easily he actually won. I think Kempton's long straight will be suited to him as it will allow him to sit off the pace from quite a wide stall in 10, and his top gear and motor past the horses who are ahead of him.
The bounce factor is a concern, but you could also say that he might've needed that run, even though he won, and he might be even better today. The top weight isn't ideal, but it doesn't look like a great race and he stands out.
Kempton 7:50 – Tamarama 11/2 (1pt Bet365)
It seems a tad strange to see Frankie Dettori riding at Kempton for one ride on a Wednesday night, and that seems like a tip in itself on his ride Tamarama.
We all know this is Frankie's final season riding, and he has always been one to pick and choose when he wants to ride over the last couple of years, so why would he come to Kempton for a ride on the top weight filly if she didn't have a good chance? I can't see how he would waste his time coming for the one ride unless she had a great chance of winning.
It's all well and good trying to solve the problem that is an 11-runner Class 4 handicap by the jockey booking, but the horse has to have some substance to her form, which she does. She hasn't hit the ground running for Ralph Beckett, but she was looking like a progressive filly when trained by Charles Hills last summer. She won on her final start for Charles at Chelmsford over 10f, recording an RPR of 96, though that was her career best performance and she is dropping back to 8f I wouldn't say it's an inconvenience as she does have plenty of pace about her and she is often best running from the front, which she might struggle to do today from a wide stall, but there should be a decent amount of pace, so her extra stamina will help running them down late in the race if Frankie doesn't get the lead.
Kempton Park - 5:15 pm
9/2 @ PaddyPower
Kempton Park - 7:50 pm