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To start off with Tuesday's racing it's quite baffling how Our Jester didn't manage to get the win. He cantered through the race and I was counting my money but as soon as he hit the front he was paddling, so maybe he is better over slightly shorter. Quite a weird performance. Talking about weird, Barzalona messed up in my eyes. French racing is often won from the front and sitting close to the pace (due to the lack of pace), so why he decided to sit last on a horse who had previously run well from the front end is baffling. It's hard to say if she'd have won if she was closer, but it looked difficult for the horses coming off the pace, so would've gone close in my eyes.
This race is probably the worst race of the day in terms of the quality of horses on show, but I think the Tony Caroll trained SOMEDAYONEDAYNEVER could run a big race off joint bottom weight.
This horse has only run three times for Tony since moving over to his yard earlier this season from Kevin F O'Donnell's yard in Ireland. It's not a shock that he acquired this horse as she is related to one of Tony's stable favourites, De Vegas Kid. Tony has done well with the latter named horse, so he must think he can improve her, which isn't out of the impossible due to her having a basement handicap mark of 44. I get the feeling today is the day they actually ‘try' and win, which might sound daft, but those who know their horse racing will understand that comment.
On her two completions (Unseated the rider on stable debut) she has run with promise and looked like a horse who they weren't fully committed to running well. She has been held up from off the pace and has stayed on well on both occasions. One time was over a mile, but was very tenderly handled by the jockey, and was staying on well and nearest at the finish. Last time out under Luke Morris she looked a little outpaced over 7f but stayed on very well to finished 4th, with the distance between her and the winner being better than what it looked as the winner was well-handicapped. They put her back up to a mile which is an obvious plus in my eyes and I think the jockey booking of Jason Watson suggests they fancy her chances in this very weak race. Jason has won 16 times from 84 rides for Tony, with a further 21 placed efforts, which is a 19% winning SR which has yielded a profit of +50.68 to level stakes.
This race is very weak and I think it's best to side with a 3yo who will have more progression to come, and out of the 3yo's this filly has shown the most in my opinion.
As daft as it might sound as this is a Class 6 Selling Handicap (0-60) I think TEMUR KHAN has been targeted this race.
He won this race 12 months ago at odds of 7/1 off a 2lb higher mark and they've taken a similar route to this race this year in terms of the places he's been raced at. Before winning this last year he went to Bath and Nottingham, both places have been visited this year in the lead-up to this race with the Nottingham race playing out similar to last year's run. He finished tailed off at Nottingham, similar to this year where he finished 25L behind the winner before he went on to Bath over 10f where he ran much better than his finishing position suggests. He was blocked on many occasions and was on the bridle when being blocked, before running on again towards the end of the race. He was dropped 2lbs for that run and gets a more experienced apprentice on board today in the shape of Mollie Phillips who has won on him before off a 6lb higher mark.
This race doesn't look strong and I think the move to put him up to 12f again is a positive.