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Low sun caused more problems with many fences being removed at Exeter. I thought Broomfield Present would enjoy the step up in trip, but I don't think the removal of the fences helped him as the pace was stronger than normal as they didn't have to jump fences for the best part of 2m+ in the race, making it into a flat race.

Taunton 2:05 – Morfee 13/2 (0.5pt EW, Bet365)

This looks like a competitive race on paper, but I don't think it's as competitive as it looks as if you look through the form of the horses it's surely just a handful of horses who should be capable of winning this and I landed on Morfee.

Seamus Mullins' horse has been running well, before his 561 day break and after it, apart from his seasonal reappearance which was evidently always going to be needed after such a huge layoff, but his run last time out at Wincanton was a nice return to form. He had previously finished 2nd, fell, won twice and then after his comeback he managed to finish 2nd as I just eluded to at Wincanton and that was over a trip which is probably on the short side for him at this moment in his career so a return to a longer trip will play to his strengths.

I think the form of the race from last time out will work out okay as the winner won that race on his second chase start, doing it nicely, and looking like a horse who could offer a fair bit more off a higher mark. The third horse ran an encouraging race and the fourth is a good yardstick for the grade.

bet365

Though this horse's wins have come on quicker ground, he showed he handled the softer ground last time out which will be crucial to today's run as though it won't be extremely testing, it will probably be tacky ground so stamina is going to be needed, which this horse has shown by winning over 3m 1f and an extended 3m 2f, so he is definitely an EW player in this, running from bottom weight.

Taunton 3:50 – Oscarman 25/1 (0.5pt EW, Bet365)

Oscarman will more than likely need the run on seasonal reappearance for the Suzy Smith yard, but with the form the yard are in with two wins in the last fortnight from four runners I thought it was worth the risk to have an EW bet on him, especially at the prices.

His handicap mark of 95 which is essentially 88 with the 7lb claim of Elizabeth Gale puts him on a ridiculously low handicap mark when you consider his opening handicap rating was 117. I think the tacky ground will suit and the track is a plus in my eyes as well as he likes to jump out to the right, so this right-handed track is a bonus.

This is a trappy race for the grade with some very in-form horses showing up, but if Oscarman was to show a glimpse of what he showed in his novice hurdling days, he is far too big of a price to leave unbacked, especially the way the yard is churning out winners.

Newcastle 12:30 – Canelo 9/1 (1pt, PaddyPower)

It's a tad annoying that some early money has come in for Canelo, I doubt that's serious money from the connections, but punters latching onto the same angle that I've gone for.

Ben Haslam won this race back in 2020 and 2021 with Scoop The Pot, who was also a JP McManus horse, like Canelo. This horse was once a very smart handicapper when trained by Alan King, rated in the 140s just a couple of seasons ago, and was winning races in the high 120s, 130s and even off 142 in a Grade 3 on Boxing Day back in 2020. Obviously, his form has taken a big hit and it just seems like the usual move for a JP McManus horse who has dropped violently through the handicap ratings that they've ended up at Ben Haslam's retirement home for JP horses. However, we've seen it on many occasions with very similar horses that these horses do bounce back to form and it's no great surprise as they are often extremely well handicapped and based on the fact that Ben and JP have won this race twice in recent years, it seems a tad coincidental that this lad has found his way into this race off a mark of 105.

This is the horse's first run in 457 days, so chances are that he'll need the run, but he's on a very tempting mark and has the ground to suit.

I'll just have 1pt straight win on him, as I think he'll either be pulled up or go on to win, I doubt there will be an in between.

Warwick 1:20 – Hermes Boy 9/1 (0.5pt EW, Bet365)

Today seems like the day for outsiders or EW priced horses, sometimes that's how it goes and I did think Hermes Boy was an interesting runner in this race.

He was once a decent horse, has only managed to win once in his career to date but has run well in defeat including just a year ago when finishing just 4.5L behind Love Envoi and then 2nd to Can You Call, those runs came off a mark of 119. Since then, his form has tailed off massively, but his handicap mark of 108 now makes him a very tempting proposition.

Jane Williams has a 30% SR at Warwick and it's interesting they've opted for the first-time blinkers on him today. He handles soft ground and if the blinkers were to revive him and give him a spark, he's well handicapped on old pieces of form and considering he is only a 6yo, I doubt his ability has gone already.

Horse Racing Tips
Morfee
Taunton - 2:05 pm

13/2 @ Bet365

Oscarman
Taunton - 3:50 pm

25/1 @ Bet365

Canelo
Newcastle - 12:30 pm

9/1 @ PaddyPower

Hermes Boy
Warwick - 1:20 pm

9/1 @ Bet365

27 Comments
  1. hibee1 3 months ago

    Trelawne 12:40 Cheltenham Friday 10/3

    Kim Bailey incredible 37% strike rate with his chasers this season with 10 from 27.
    Yard have always rated this horse and always said he was a chaser in the making. He should really be unbeaten if it wasn’t for hanging badly left at Exeter over hurdles. Seems to be happy going left or right handed. Has won at left handed tracks twice already so Cheltenham shouldn’t be a problem. The fact they’ve put him in this better class race just makes you think they really know he’s a decent horse. I’d expect this to be well backed and that’s why I backed this earlier today. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went off favourite on the day.
    Cheltenham is practically on the yards doorstep so little travelling involved which can be such a an advantage for obvious reasons. Yard has had 2 winners from last 3 runners, they were all chasers, the other being pulled up.
    Nice 5 or 6 week rest since last run should be perfect. This will surely go very, very close.

    Could be with watching out for Peter Bowens Methusular entered on Monday at Plumpton as well. Backed it last month when it was travelling like the winner but Sean Bowen was unseated jumping the 2nd last. I said then it was a Peter Bowen plot, he’d run him over too far a trip in previous race and was running him on right handed tracks and he was dropped 5 lb by the handicapper. He then sent him on a left handed track and for me he would would have won. He’s been put up only 1 lb for that run which seems very generous. I said last time he’s potentially very well handicapped based on his winning hurdle form. Will take a closer look on Monday and I’ll try leave a few comments on it if I can.

    Have a Kerry Lee runner also I’m really keen on coming up soon. Hopefully a few spotted Tedtwo yesterday win at 10/1 had been waiting all summer for him to run I’d mentioned last week or so.

    Best of luck gentlemen!

    18
    • smoothsailor 3 months ago

      Cheers Hibee. Appreciated as always.
      Do you have thoughts on Grey Dawning, who looked impressive last time at Haydock (albeit, getting plenty of weight from the Mullins horse).

      2
    • hibee1 3 months ago

      Hi, no worries. Yard are expecting a really good run tomorrow also. Big danger to my bet no doubt. The bookies will just under price horse from the ‘bigger’ yards so for me he’s too short. If the odds were reversed and he was 10/3 and Trelawne was 7/4, I’d be backing Grey Dawning. Its all about getting on at the right prices obviously if you want to be ahead all of the time. For me this Kim Bailey runner is very unexposed, only 5 runs I think. There’s alot more to come I reckon and the yard are very confident of a good run. Should be a great race to watch for sure. I reckon both these horses will be worth following this season.

      7
  2. recoba 3 months ago

    Remington Park- Oklahoma City,Oklahoma
    🇺🇸

    Night cap? No thanks I don’t wear them!”
    2x singles and a double

    Remington Park -Race 8…Midnight Pranks 9/2 ***+ Bet365
    Race 9..Citizen 9/4 ***+

    Probably only 10 minutes max till the off but Pandemic Cat in Race 7 for a Trixie IF you can make it. Currently around 15/8 – 2/1

    GL and well done winners yesterday

    1
    • recoba 3 months ago

      🇺🇸
      Re 🧢.
      Sufferin suckatash… 2 close seconds and a turd! 👎

  3. Gateacre Pete 3 months ago

    Rebel Cowgirl 12.35 Naas. @ 45s top 8 Ew extra
    GL

    1
  4. hibee1 3 months ago

    Storm Control Cheltenham 2.25 tomorrow 5/1 ( current best odds)

    Managed to nick 8/1 on this yesterday. Bookies shortening it up so thought I’d share now.
    Convinced the yard have layed this out for this veterans race tomorrow. They won it last year with Magic Dancer. Only a 10 yo which is young for for these races. Well treated on old form, 3 lb lower than last winning mark. Has won off 8 lb higher mark also. Versatile in trip. Yards horses are running very well especially those making their seasonal reappearance. 6 from the yards last 7 winners have all been making their seasonal reappearance. Has lots of experience at Cheltenham with 6 runs here, 2 of them he has won. Reckon he will run them into submission from the front tomorrow .
    Only negative in the past he’s only won once after a layoff but the way Kerry Lee has them this season says she will have him ready first time. I reckon they’ve been planning this race for a while. Shame the 8s has gone but 5/1 I think there’s still a bet to be had if anyone else was looking at this horse.

    13
  5. busstop.2018 3 months ago

    Hi All Long time since been on here. Hope everyone is doing well .Few of the old regulars not here or not posted yet .

    Anyway gl all

    17
    • azzthewigan 3 months ago

      welcome back bustop

      5
    • Mike33 3 months ago

      Good to hear from you. Welcome back.

      1
    • hibee1 3 months ago

      Remember you. Passionate about his horses. Wide open arms for people like that on here. Glad you can help us out again!

      5
  6. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    karlos 11.45

  7. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    classic maestro 11.55

  8. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    money heist 12.00

    1
  9. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    kauto Castillo 12.20 ew well done all winners yesterday

  10. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    no cruise yet 12.30

  11. hoggie93 3 months ago

    Morfee 💥 you beauty!

    4
    • hibee1 3 months ago

      Nice headline tip Rizzle great price

      2
  12. hibee1 3 months ago

    Just Gino 2.35 Bangor 2/1

    This is the main bet for tomorrow been waiting all day for the prices. Bookies are wise to it as I’d hoped they’d have had Classic Lord the fairly strong fav but they know about this horse.
    Owner has been confident about it and he certainly likes to send his horses where they have a winning chance, he has really good % strike rate, it’s a very nice French recruit that cost a fair bit and this race tomorrow will take little winning. I’m all over the 2/1 I think it’s a great price, it should be odds on imo. No worries regarding ground, they’ve kept him left handed like in Ireland for his point to point. Don’t think I need to mention yards form at the track. Expect this to be well gambled.
    That’s me done, back to work tomorrow ill catch you all Monday if I get the chance. Good luck everyone. Have a great weekend.

    9
  13. spurs55 3 months ago

    Fancy Rakki first race
    Little Ew 💰

    2
  14. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    smooth transition 6.30 ew

    2
  15. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    storm catcher 7.00 nap well done all winners today

    1
  16. azzthewigan 3 months ago

    bubblecraft 7.30 ew nb

  17. dazzman1979 3 months ago

    Race 9 gulfstream- kern river 11/4 – super nap 💰🍻

  18. recoba 3 months ago

    🇺🇸 Trixie and singles plus wee side bets

    Aquaduct -Race 6..Downtown Mischief 7/2 ***
    15l behind the I’ll fated Nable Leaf Mel in Grade 1 Belmont Stakes few months back and if good to go which isn’t usually a problem Statesude he’s the class act
    Race8…Maggie T 7/2. **** looks good for pace in this on slight class drop and younger horse with improvement to come
    Side bet …Combo forecast 8 -2 -1 *+
    Race 8…Clever Forever 6/5
    *Combo forecast 8 -2 -5

    GL

    • recoba 3 months ago

      *Race 8…8-2-4 Fat thumbs 👍

    • recoba 3 months ago

      🇺🇸 Re – 🧢
      I’ll get me coat? ⬆️ 🐎 💩

      Anything after Wednesday with the class this time of iyear s a minefield but Stakes on Saturday hopefully be mote fruitful.
      With so called big meets I’ll need to down my ⭐️ for confidence with these .

      Apologies for the duffers!

      Got Charles Town,Delta Downs and Remington Park etc that I say I was bit unlucky with last night later so be back with something

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