This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
At first glance I thought Arenas Del Tiempo struggled with the step up in class, but after watching the replay I think something was amiss with the horse. Hollie Doyle was niggling along at an early stage, and especially around the bend turning for home. She was beaten by too big of a margin to suggest it was a rise in class which was the problem, especially at a track she handles well.
A short enough price, which is something I'm not a big fan of but COACH CARTER has a very good chance of winning this. I was impressed with his run at the Ayr Festival a few weeks ago when finishing runner-up to my selection, Beakstown. He was staying on strongly, so the drop back in trip might not be ideal, but a mark of 135 looks reasonable and I think he will have the class to win this even though he is dropping in trip. A few weeks ago, Gordon's horses were really out of form, but he was one of a few who ran with credit when he was in a rough patch, so it goes to show that his personal form is bang there. A five runner race, so the odds are quite skimpy, but it would be a surprise not to see him bang there at the finish, especially for a yard who does well at this track (30% SR from 144 runners).
I'm a big fan of Dan Skelton when he target trains a horse, and I think that this race has been the plan for GALIA DES LITEAUX for quite a while, which makes her dangerous to underestimate. She has only raced in Novice company in her two runs, but that has produced a decent level of form. On hurdles debut she beat Fonzerelli by 30 lengths, I don't think you can take that form literally, but that horse has gone on to win a Class 1 Listed Mares Hurdles race at Doncaster. On her next start she finished 3rd at Ascot, with Complete Unknown in 2nd, 0.5L ahead of Galia Des Liteaux. That runner-up is also in this race today, but there are reasons to suggest she can reverse the form with that horse. I think the good ground will be better suited for her, hence why Dan Skelton has kept her away from the big festivals over the last couple of weeks, as the ground could've got testing with the weather forecasts being all over the place. Also, she gets the Mares' allowance in this, which means she is carrying a bottom weight of 10st 7lbs, which is 7lbs less than her next horse in the weights, but gets 10lbs from Complete Unknown, who has previously carried 1lb more. The step up to 3m should suit, based on the fact she was a PTP winner. I think she is being overlooked in the market, and looks good value against some of the horses who are shorter in the market.
I don't think this race is all that strong, so it could be worth siding with COREY'S COURAGE who looks very progressive, and potentially a lot better than her mark of 117. It could be a tough ask for her to win this off a top weight of 11st 12lbs, but the standard of opposition in this isn't crazily good, and I think she should be too strong for them. Olly Murphy clearly thinks she is a talented Mare, as he put her in a Class 1 Grade 2 hurdle at Newbury, but withdrew her due to “Unsuitable Ground”. I don't believe that she needs bottomless ground to be effective, as she won on her sole bumper run on good ground, and won well. The form of that bumper race has worked out well with the runner-up now being rated in the low 120s and the 4th being rated 133. If they think she could hold her own in a Grade 2, then a mark of 117 on handicap debut should be within reach, even off top weight.