Racing tips: The Nice Guy will cement his Stayers’ hurdle credentials for next year with a win in the Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle

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I feel like we should've had a winner yesterday in the form of Sit Down Lucy. She was hampered by a faller, not massively but it definitely checked her momentum, but was also hampered by a loose horse when turning for home. The loose horse pushed her wide and was a big inconvenience, as it put her on the back foot and meant she had to start again. The fact she stayed on as well as she did to get 4th suggested to me that she would've gone close with a clear round. Fury Road was disappointing in the Grade 1 chase, where he clearly lacked the speed to get close to the winner. Bob Olinger was poor, and if you took him on like I suggested, you would've been correct in doing so.

Punchestown 5:20

Sometimes you can overlook races and delve into them a little too deep, when in reality the winner is staring you right in the face. I'm going to avoid delving too far into this as THE NICE GUY is easily the best horse in the race. He sprung a bit of a surprise at the Cheltenham Festival when he won with plenty in hand in the Albert Bartlett (5L). The way he travelled through his race was extremely eyecatching and was done in the manner of a top quality animal. I think you can try and get him beat, but if the same horse who showed up at Cheltenham shows up today, you'll be wasting your time as this lad is in another league, in my opinion.

He's had 40 days to recover from Cheltenham, and I don't think he will have had any adverse effects from Cheltenham, as it appeared to me that he had an easy race, which is baffling to say as it was a Grade 1, but the way he won was so easy. I think Journey With Me is an interesting contender in this. I tipped him up in the race won by Sir Gerhard at the Festival, where he was probably booked for 3rd before falling at the final flight. I think he is a nice horse, and the step up in trip will likely suit, but the ground is a concern and whether he's classy enough to beat The Nice Guy, I'm not so sure. He's a good EW bet in this, if that's your cup of tea.

At odds of 9/4 I am more than happy to take that for this horse, as I think he should be half of those odds, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him backed in 6/4 as 9/4 is simply too big.

Punchestown 5:55

I know it might seem boring to tip up ALLAHO as every man and his dog probably will be doing the same, but it's similar to the previous race, he's the best horse in the race and should win, so there's no point in over complicating things.

People will have doubts over his stamina of 3m, and that's a fair enough argument, but I think he's a better and different horse from a couple of seasons ago, so is worth another chance at this trip. It's not like he didn't stay the trip out when we last saw him over this trip, it was simply a factor of being outstayed by stronger stayers like Minella Indo and Champ, who are strong stayers at the trip. I think he's matured better than those horses, and Paul Townend thinks “he's stronger now”, and it's hard to argue that point. This horse has been electric over the last couple of years, especially during his Cheltenham Festival romps. He is arguably the best jumps horse in training, other than potentially the 2m stars in Shishskin and Energumene. Unlike the previous selection, I think he could drift in the market as the punters will begin to doubt whether he'll stay, hopefully that's the case as it'll mean more money for us.

This race isn't short on ability with last years winner making a return for Paul Nicholls in the shape of Clan Des Obeaux. I do rate Clan as a horse, but every time I've backed and tipped him up, he runs below par. There's no doubting the stable form and the fact he'll be ready to defend his crown, I just think he's not of the same class as Allaho, despite the fact he will be a stronger stayer. I think he is the main danger, and the punters share the same opinion. He is undoubtedly a cracking EW price for you safe bet punters, and one for the placepot if that's what you like doing.

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