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I put a comment in yesterday's thread apologising for the day when it was fairly horrendous. I don't normally put that many tips up on a Saturday as they are extremely difficult days, but I was so confident in every selection running well that I went for it. I came away with one win (NAP), 3x runner-up and one place, so it could've easily been a very good day if things went in my favour.
Ffos Las 3:10
The Welsh Champion Hurdle is always a good race for the start of the jumps season and today's race is no different with everything you'd like. You have a returning winner in the shape of Glory And Fortune, you have the new pretender in GIN COCO and you have an Irish raider with Effernock Fizz. I've gone for the Harry Fry trained Gin Coco as I think his run in Ireland at the back end of last season's jumps season was a great effort and there is much more to come.
Though the race in which he ran at Leopardstown wasn't a great race, being a handicap worth 10k in prize money, I think that the winner was well-handicapped and to run such a big race on just his fourth run ever off a weight of 12st was a great effort. He was given an RPR of 133 that day, which the British handicapper takes a similar view and has rated him 131 for his new mark. Based on that handicap mark I feel like he is better than what he is currently rated, especially with Ben Bromley taking off an extremely handy 7lbs. Ben seems to be a good conditional, as shown by his career 16% SR from 70 rides and is 1/3 when riding for Harry Fry. Speaking of Harry, he has made a good start to his jumps season, operating at a 30% SR from 23 runners, with him being 1/1 in the last fortnight.
With the form of the yard, I think his fitness will be fine and he should be primed for this race, as they will try and make use of his low handicap mark to plunder some nice prizes before he might become a Class 1 horse.
Glory And Fortune is the class horse in the race but to carry 11st 12lbs on seasonal return he'll have to be extremely good and run close to his Class 1 best runs to win, which could take some doing. Milkwood is a good horse and a previous Scottish Champion Hurdle winner and runs well off breaks but hasn't seemed he same level of horse based on last season's runs. Effernock Fizz is probably flattered from his recent 2nd in a Grade 3 against some very good animals, I feel like the others underperformed and weren't quite match fit, but he will make a bold effort from a front running ride.
SUNDAY
Kaiserwalzer 20-1 bet365 ew extra 8 places.
3-00 PARDUBICE (Czech Republic).
Known as the Velka Pardubicka or the great Pardubice steeplechase in UK speak
Patrick Mullins travels over for another stab at this most brutal of tests for jumps horses, he was brought down on this horse in last year’s slogfest..
The oldest and probably the most difficult cross country horse race on the continent has been held since 1874 in Pardubice. Horses and riders must cope with a track 6,900 m long and overcome 31 obstacles. The most feared of them – the Taxis Ditch, may be jumped only once a year, right during the race, held on the second Sunday in October.
Worth a watch this race if you can stream it somewhere
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Love your intro rizzle, you should be a spin doctor for those criminals in Westminster 😆.
Sorry for being facetious, it’s my sense of humour, your Saturday mirrors 99% of punters Saturdays, no shame in saying it’s a shit day.
I part with my money on a Saturday morning and if see any of it again I see it as a bonus 😁
Ffos las
1-35 astra via 15-8
2-35 super size 6-4 top 2 finish
3-10 hardy du seuil 11-8 top 3 finish.
🇺🇸 2x close up 2nds and 2 winners with 5/1 Nap doing it nicely! 👌 Nb was hit with an apple at the finish line…Pipped at the post! 😋
2/5 ain’t the worst . Should made In Italian Nb but to many Chad Brown runners?
🇦🇺 Penorla -R2…Lucasayd 7/4. Bet365
🇺🇸 Get other 2 or 3 for a dig at a Yankee or a Canadian again but meantime these are my 2 best bets
Keeneland- R8…Gigante 7/2 Nb (Won a stakes race on only 3rd outing by 7-8 lengths,on the up!)
R9…Malathaat. EVS Skybet Nap
Me old mate here,seems like he’s being running for ages but still only 4 and this his 13th start in prep for Breeders Cup but more than a prep with the opposition although he should be to good again)
GL all today
Malathaat 11/10 Skybet
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Add for a Canadian to the above…
Belmont -R6…Determined Jester 9/1 (could take to place but going for it in open race after he won well in a stakes race on only 3rd start,workouts been excellent so I read)
R8…Public Sector 7/2
Keeneland- R3…Carbonite. 13/8
GL 🇺🇸 A- 👌
Lyon 🇫🇷
11-35 kizmambo 8-1 ew extra 3 places 1/4 odds.
12-05 katchouka 7-2 win and 5-4 top 2 finish
come to pass 1.40
astra via 1.25
singing the blues 1.50 ew well done all winners yesterday
Bellagio man 2 50 southwell @ 28s ew
GL
So close to a 40/1 winner Pete 👏👏
Well done Sir
Yeah but good drift, cheers Deds
NAP Malathaat is 8/15 Bet365 and 4/6 Paddy Powered but Skybet still go 11/10 with there boost!
Carbonite is NR so replacement horse..
Santa Anita-R7…Counterparty Risk 9/2
Some Canadian now!! 😮 💰 🏦 🙏