Racing tips: The lightly raced filly My Astra holds every chance in the Listed race at Ayr

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Flat racing hasn't been too kind to me of recent apart from the 25/1 winner on Saturday and I'm sure David Probert would like to ride De Vegas Kid again in the Brighton race as he couldn't find the gaps and as a result let the eventual winner get a few lengths up on him. Fingers crossed on a change of luck for today's runners.

Ayr 1:00

Trainer: Tristan Davidson

Jockey: Gianluca Sanna

Form: 4911-8

The jockey booking of Gianluca Sanna in this Apprentice Handicap caught my eye for ALL THINGS BRIGHT. Gianluca surely would've been booked for Cosa Sora who was much shorter in the market at the time of when the markets opened (has drifted now), having rode that horse to a recent win over C&D for Jim Goldie, boosting his record to 2/2 for that yard, so the fact he's jocked up on this horse suggests a big race is ready.

Ayr is expecting a fair bit of rain from Monday afternoon to the time of racing which could possibly turn the ground to soft from the current going of Good To Soft, which will be an advantage for this horse. He racked up a quick double at the back end of last season on soft ground. Those wins came in sellers and claimer races so the form isn't worth much but he has dropped 4lbs since those wins and the recent outting at Ripon looked like a pipe opener for the start of the season as he weakened with a few furlongs to go and wasn't given a hard time in that race, so it looked like they had a race in mind. Tristan Davidson has a very good strike rate at Ayr, where he has a 27% SR at the track with a profit of +12.68 to level £1 stakes. He has never used Sanna before, but in a race like this it can pay dividends going for the better and more experienced jockey, which this yard have done with getting the services of Gianluca.

He is drawn in stall 3 which is ideal for this horse who was seen to be effect when sitting close to the pace or making the running himself. He did his winning over 10f, but if the ground does get testing the drop in trip shouldn't be an inconvenience as he'll have the stamina advantage over most of these and I think at the prices he is worth a small EW play.

Ayr 3:20

 Trainer: William Haggas

Jockey: Tom Marquand

Form: 112-3

MY ASTRA is the lightly raced filly in the race and based on her runs you'd have to say this trip is probably her best at this moment in her career. She was a strong favourite in a Listed race at Kempton one month ago which was a race I tipped up the winner, Roman Mist. I thought that My Astra would be better over longer (race was over 1m) and I thought she might have needed the run, and I think both of those statements are correct. She struggled with the pace and the course of Kempton where she was tapped for a bit of speed but powered home in the final furlong where she got 3rd and lost by 0.5L. That race has been boosted with the fourth since winning a Listed race over 7f at Lingfield. I think the horse in 2nd (Potapova) will win a couple of nice races at somepoint during this season, so I do rate that form. Soft ground will be best suited for this filly, which we saw when she finished 2nd in a Listed race in France at the back end of last season, so the expected rain is a positive. William Haggas doesn't send many to the Scottish track (3/5 60% SR) so it's a good indicator that they fancy her chances. It is a strong Listed race and she'll have to improve to win it, but she has a lovely pedigree and I do expect more to come.

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