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Hopefully, you all managed to get a couple of winners on Friday so you have some extra change for Saturday's racing which looks very busy. You have some good races over in Ireland including the Group 1 for Juveniles which looks like a real top-class Group 1 which is too tough for me to call so I've decided to leave it alone.
It's no surprise to see me backing NIGHT OF LUXURY in this race on the back of Wisper being a winning tip for me the other day at Brighton. Night Of Luxury convincingly beat Wisper when they met and Wisper has since won with plenty in hand and looked like a horse ahead of the handicapper, which is what I feel about Saeed Bin Suroor's 3yo gelding of Postponed.
He won win plenty in hand at Epsom and has only gone up 6lbs in the handicap as a result of that win, which looks generous considering the form has started to work out well and he was rated 93 by RPR for that run. He gets into this race off bottom weight of 8st 11lbs, which is always a bonus, and I think he has the most room for progression in this race off his current handicap mark. His Godolphin mate Falling Shadow will be the main threat, but I wouldn't be confident in backing that horse off his current odds, having struggled last time out, albeit in a stronger race, but he didn't exactly look well-handicapped.
A multiple course and distance winner who always has to be respected at Redcar is GIVE IT SOME TEDDY. Though he hasn't won this race, he has run well in it twice before off marks 78 and 76, which is 6lbs and 4lbs higher than today's current rating.
He is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark which came in this month of last year, which doesn't sound great that it has taken him so long to get in the winner's enclosure again, but he has run well in defeat on a few occasions since, including last time out at Thirsk where he finished 4th/16 in a decent prize handicap. That was a Class 3 (0-90), so he should appreciate this drop in class today, and I get the feeling this race has been the plan for a while considering he has run so well in it before and is a lover of this track.
He is currently around 5/1 which is a fair enough price.
OSCULA is a wonderful filly and I bet she is a pleasure to train and own as she tries her hardest every time she runs. She has had a very busy campaign since returning as a 3yo, but it's something she seems to thrive on. Every time she races I think she surely isn't going to be good enough to win this race, but she proves me wrong every single time, even on the times she doesn't win, she hits the frame and runs extremely well. This race doesn't look strong on paper and is nothing like the opposition she has faced in the past so has to be the one they all have to beat. She seems fairly versatile over what trip she runs over and considering she is a front runner, this track should play to her strengths. The two John & Thady Gosden trained fillies will be the ones who will attract market support, but I don't think they are wonder horses and will have to improve a fair amount to get the better of Oscula.
Orbaan is a horse who a lot of people would have been kicking themselves over when he won at Glorious Goodwood over a week ago. He is a cliff horse of many so when he won at odds of 20/1 it would've hurt a lot of people and many would have been cursing. He runs in this off top weight of 10st 3lbs, which makes this a very tough assignment, especially over a trip which isn't necessarily suited to him, so I think he has to be avoided.
The one I've landed on in this is DIVINE MAGIC who also has to carry a fairly large amount of weight, but is a horse who could still be ahead of the handicapper despite not winning last time around. She hasn't had the best of luck in recent runs, where she has met trouble in running on a few occasions. She was good enough to win at Leicester the time before last where she won with a fair amount in hand, but that didn't tell the full story, having to be switched on a couple of occasions before eventually getting out and winning well. She didn't have the clearest of runs last time out, and was staying on strongly but didn't have enough track to reel back the winner. The third from that race has since come out and won with ease at Haydock last night, which bodes well for the form, and I think the winner could hold her own in Class 1 company considering she won that race at Newmarket off 10st 2lbs. I believe this stiff track will play to her strengths, and if they go a good gallop, it could set it up perfectly for her.
The last bet of the day for me is on a horse who has won this race in the past and won this race for me when I wasn't tipping on this thread and was just a Twitter tipster. ISLAND BRAVE has been targeted this race all season as he has run twice in it previously and has won it at odds of 33/1 as well as running well in fourth last year.
He is 2lbs higher than when he won it in 2020 when it wasn't a Shergar Cup race due to the Pandemic but is 4lbs lower than when running well in this last year, so is handicapped to run well for sure. His prep for this has been decent with a good run in the Northumberland Plate and ran well in a Royal Ascot handicap where his finishing position of 10th looks worse than what it actually was.
I think he will drift in the market, with horses such as Super Superjack running in this who will be a favourite for punters, especially those who backed him last week in the 2m 4f contest at Glorious Goodwood, where they claim he was unlucky not to win. For me, I can't see how he was unlucky. Yes he was stuck behind horses, but he had plenty of time to actually get going and reel back the leader, maybe I'm being too harsh. For me, he is a good horse but is quirky and whether 2m is his favoured trip, I'm not sure, and at the odds, I think he is worth taking on.