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Only The Bold didn't stay the trip in the Welsh National, but I felt he ran better than it looked. He lined up in first two/three, quicky was the back marker and then Jack Tudor tried creeping him into the race and before they were about to turn for home I thought he was in with a chance of placing, but he ploughed through the fence before the turn and was then pulled up.
Leopardstown 1:15 – Fact To File 11/10 (2pt)
Fact To File has an interesting profile which doesn't appear to be the usual route that Willie Mullins takes with his horses, but he went from being a top class bumper horse to skipping the usual hurdling season and has gone straight over fences. He ran well on seasonal and chase debut to finish 2nd to American Mike and it looked to me that he needed the run and would come on for it, so he has every chance of getting a win now.
This is a decent race with Minella Cocooner turning up, who was a useful hurdler from a couple of seasons ago and made a decent Chase debut last November when finishing 2nd, but I think Fact To File is the better horse of the two as he was a very classy bumper horse and Willie wouldn't be going straight for fences if he didn't think he was classy enough to do that. Zanahiyr is an interesting chase debutante in this race, he is a smart hurdler who is just below Grade 1 level when running at his best but he is a flat bred horse, so this race on chase debut looks a big ask against some good horses.
I think Fact To File will have a big season this year, and possibly go for the NH Chase at Cheltenham, which is 3m 6f, however, he is a horse with plenty of speed about him so even though he is being earmarked for that race, this looks a nice opportunity for him to break his duck over fences.
Leopardstown 1:50 – Irish Point 11/8 (1pt)
Even though Irish Point is stepping up to 3m for the first time, I think he has a nice chance of winning this Grade 1, which doesn't appear to be the strongest.
He has to prove he has the stamina on heavy ground over 3m, but based on his form as a novice hurdler I think he has a nice chance of doing well against the seasoned horses. This race has been won by a 5yo four times in the last ten years and the hasn't been won by a horse older than 7 in the last ten years, which makes it a tough ask for every other horse in this race other than Buddy One. Irish Point won nicely over 2m 1f on his seasonal reappearance and that would've been a nice starting point for him, beating a decent mare, Magic Zoe by 1.75L who was 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this year.
Irish Point finished last season off nicely with a Grade 1 win at Aintree over 2m 4f on good to soft ground. The form is a bit of a mix as the runner-up hasn't done anything to frank the form, but Hermes Allen ran well in Kauto Start behind Il Est Francais and others like Springwell Bay (6th) won nicely on first time out this year and Crambo (7th) won the Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 at Ascot last week when finishing ahead of Paisley Park, so overall it looks to be a decent level of form.
I am mostly afraid of Asterion Forlonge who is a talented horse when he wants to be, but he is now a 9yo and is back over hurdles again. I think he stays the trip, but I do have reservations about him staying the trip on heavy ground.
3:23 catterick- Yukon 8/1 e/w
1:40 catterick- claret dabbler 9/1 e/w
Both Panda Boy and Busselton placed in the pp gold Cup at odds of 8/1 and 33/1 but everything else I picked ran well below their form.
Captain Guiness and in particular Daddy Long Legs hated the heavy ground so I think we can just draw a line through both those runs.
Marine Nationale was very impressive and on ground he would have hated. He actually ran 4.3 secs quicker than Dinoblue carrying 7lbs more and is now rightly a very short price for the Arkle.
Unbelievable card at Leopardstown today and the Saville’s chase is without doubt the best line up for a race so far this season.
12.40 Almuhit 7/1 ew 6 places
Ran in the Triumph Hurdle finishing 10th but has been running on the flat since and has a flat rating of 90 so a Hurdle rating of 114 looks thrown in and we know trainer Emmett Mullins is a master at placing his runners.
1.15 Zanahiyr 7/2
At the odds Zanahiyr has to be the bet here even though its his first start over fences.
He’s the highest rated of those with a Hurdle rating and providing he takes to fences he should be hard to best.
1.50 Home By The Lee 15/8
This is between the top 2 in the market and I wouldn’t put anyone off either horse but I just think this has been HBTL’s target and will be 100% ready to defend the race he won last year. Irish Point should stay the 3m but if more rain were to come there would have to be doubts.
2.25 Savviles Chase
I really don’t know what’s going to win this race. GDC can surely be forgiven for his first start which was over an inadequate trip and this is more his type of race and I think he will reverse places with Fastorslow.
The rain has come for Gerri Colombe but the flat track is surely against him as he’s much better when there’s undulations. So if he were to win this he’d have to be a shoe in for the Gold Cup.
Gun to the head I’d go for GDC but I’ll just watch this race with great interest.
3.00 Pertemps Qualifier
Absolute Notions would be my pick but they don’t usually like winning these races but just finish in the first 4 so they qualify for the final.
AN is best priced 14s for the final in March and id sooner be putting money on that than to win here. His mark of 142 is surely on the lenient side so I’d imagine he will qualify and then be put away until March.
Well done to all the winners yesterday
BOL
Minella cocooner 1-15 leopardstown 2-1.
Zanahyir is a very decent hurdler, bit of a bridesmaid and makes chase debut.
Fact to file was beaten comfortably by a chase debutant in American mike last time and has never won a jumps race.
Jockey bookings suggest cocooner is Mullins No1 and it’s a case of whether a year off has left him rusty as the above mentioned have had a spin this season.
Home by the lea 1-50 leopardstown 15-8
DC has covered this above ⤴️
American mike 2-05 Limerick 9-2
Appreciate it 2-25 leopardstown
10-1 ew extra 6 places.
Townsend wouldn’t get the 1st pick of the McManus horse Fact to file Elvis that’s Walsh ride.
Still some to run with couple of winners (not good enough yet) and Turway Park is a minefield I feel so small stakes but by looks of it for a change a there’s a few clear cut horses here worth a shot.
TURFWAY PARK – Race 1..Thalberg 4/1 ***
Race 2…Sherwood Avenue 5/4 ***+
Race 3..Raiseritchiesransom 2/1 ****
Race 4…Free Time 11/4
Race 6..Tenebaum 15/8
Delta Downs -Race 4…Swift N Traffic 4/1
*Repost of sorts! ⬇️
Some still to run from yesterday’s shouts/picks or tips if you will but of course there not for backing TWICE but very confident about a couple.
Penn National-Race 2…Twixter (*****)
He’s best priced 13/8 Bet365 as ratings are clear and Woodbine form surely stacks up better than Penn National and only 10th run so as lightly raced as most in here,dropping from 24k race were 0.6 lengths 4th into 14K race? 🤷♂️
Others from yesterday ⬇️
Penn National- Race 6…Rebel Ruler 4/1 ***
Delta Downs -Race 1…Porto Del Ace EVS ***+
Race 6…Teasin Tesla 7/4.
Race Race 7..Brief 2/1
GL tomorrow folk I’ll be sawing logs literally then in the sleeping sense of the saying.
Full on zombie mode sawing logs 😂
I think the 1:15 looks risky , who to side with
captains nephew 2.40 well done all winners yesterday
lucky zebo 3.00
Just one more to go rizz there’s always one that lets us down hopefully not today hey 😂
conflated 2.25 ew
Well done rizz double landed .I personally never bothered had my fingers burned to many times with Irish favourites tend to leave alone especially with Elvis and dc creating a bit of doubt thought I would be better off losing my money on something else 😂 shout out anyways 👍
Nice one for the double 2/1 great tipping thanks
Now go buy yourself a crème egg ! 😂
Race 9 gulfstream- el rezeen 5/1