Racing tips: The 7lb penalty won’t be enough to stop Alexandra Romanov

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It's been a disaster the last couple of days, I'm hoping tomorrow will be some better results.

Warwick 3:05 – Valentino Dancer 5/1 (1pt)

I'd have been tempted to go with Idalko Bihoue who I recently put up at Perth but the meeting was cancelled, I'd have reservations in this lineup on good ground. I think in a race full of novices, where some of them haven't jumped a fence in public, experience could be key and I opted for Valentino Dancer to come out on top.

This horse has his quirks, he has thrown away a lead when having many lengths on the horse in behind, and he tried his best to do it last time out when idling in front, so clearly is a fruit loop. Though his quirks come with an obvious risk, I don't mind it as I think it shows there's more in the locker that we've not seen from him yet, and would prefer a stronger race as he clearly gets lonely in front. I'd say this is a stronger race than his recent ones, even though they don't have much chase experience, but the quality of horses is better, so it might allow Paddy to deliver him much later and give him less chance of thinking about it when hitting the front.

He is at the bottom of the weights and likes the ground. I expect him to travel well into the race, with the track likely to suit him as he is nippy.

Warwick 3:35 – Alexandra Romanov 9/2 (1pt)

It's good to see a decent field turnout for this race as it will allow me to get better odds on Alexandra Romanov, and I am very keen on her chances in this.

Nearly every horse in this race has questions which need to be answered, but the one I believe is open to progress again is my selection, Alexandra Romanov. This mare is 2/3 when running over today's trip with the only blip being a PU run where something clearly wasn't right as she made that wrong a right when winning last time out off a very big break (239 days). She appears to like the quicker ground and she seemed to love Warwick last time out, she travelled like a dream in that race and would've won by a much bigger margin if she didn't jump the last like a snooker table.

What I also like is that Sheena West is running her with a 7lb penalty, normally, I'd say they are running them with a penalty as the penalty is better than the future mark they would get, but this isn't the case with this horse. The handicapper raised her by 6lb, so she is effectively 1lb worse off at the weights, so they must feel like they have a very strong chance of coming away with the win and she must be flying at home, as even though it's only 1lb, you'd want every advantage given to you.

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