Racing tips: Testing conditions will suit Monsieur Lecoq down to the ground

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Yesterday's sole selection was a non-runner, and there was nothing I felt confident in, so I didn't replace him. Hopefully today's two runners will run, and run well.

Musselburgh 1:15

When PRESENTING DYLAN ran last time out, I was partly kicking myself that I didn't put him put his stablemate Ask Blossomfort up as a selection along with Presenting Dylan, as it seemed very strange for their trainer Brian Francis Cawley to send two runners to Ayr from his base in Galway. The latter named horse won, and the former ran a respectable race on chase debut, and it's interesting that connections have come back over to Scotland with this horse again.

Thankfully, the handicapper hasn't altered his chase rating of 116 from when he made his chase debut in the mid parts of November. I think that was quite generous, as he ran a big race from big odds of 28/1, finishing 4th of 9 and only 3.25L behind the winner. That run was credited an RPR of 123, and I agree that the run was above the level of his current handicap mark. That race looks stronger than this one, so an ease in opponents will hopefully see him land his first win since moving over to Mr Cawley's yard.

Broadway Joe will be popular in the market, as he comes into this race trying to land the hat-trick, but I think he might struggle. This race is tougher than what he has previously won his two races, and even though he gets a decent weight of 11st 2lbs, he will only be receiving 1lb from the selection due to P J Cawley taking off a very handy 7lbs for our pick, despite being 8lbs inferior according to the handicapper.

Lingfield 2:00

For a Monday, this race is very respectable and is full of good quality animals. Today's conditions should be absolutely perfect for MONSIEUR LECOQ, and I think it would be extremely daft for punters to ignore how good this horse used to be.

He doesn't have a great strike rate, but that comes with good reasons. He has been tried at a high level over hurdles, but has bumped into good horses, but has ran with plenty of credit, hence why he has 6 places next to his name alongside his 3 wins from 17 runs. Connections tried going over fences, but that didn't really work out how they hoped, so they have decided to revert back over hurdles, and I think that is the smart decision. His hurdle rating has dropped drastically in the last year, after being rated 145 in January, he is now rated 132, which is effectively 129 as Chester Williams takes off 3lbs, so he is very well handicapped on old pieces of form. I think the key to him is testing ground, and that is what he'll get at Lingfield, as the going is currently described as Heavy, and it shouldn't change too much by the time they start racing. Whilst racing on soft/heavy he has finished 3rd in the Greatwood (Grade 3, Cheltenham November meeting), 4th in the International (Grade 2, Cheltenham December meeting 4.5L behind winner), 2nd in the Betfair Exchange Trophy (Grade 3, Ascot off a mark of 150!), 2nd in the Imperial Cup (Grade 3, Sandown). And even more recently, his 2nd to Amoola Gold in Class 1 Listed chance at Ascot was on soft ground, and the runs either side on good ground saw him finish 6/7 and 11/12, so it shows how ground dependent he is.

I think he will be overlooked in the market, and I hope his price continues to drift as I think he has a cracking shot in this. He has had 3 runs so far this season, so should be fit and ready to go. Jane Williams has made a very good start to her campaign, with a 20% SR so far, and Chester Williams continues to improve and impress with his riding (currently operating at 33% SR in the last 14 days, and 28% for the season).

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