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Haveyoumissedme was a winning tip for the second time this month which was good to see as he was the only selection of Sunday. Today, I've opted for just the one selection again, and I think he is overpriced on old form and shouldn't be underestimated.
There is a chance that TEMPLEHILLS will get an easy lead, and if so, that will give him a good chance in my opinion. He is starting to become well weighted off a mark of 122, and today's conditions would probably be deemed as ‘ideal'. 2m 4f on good ground and around Warwick is a good combination for this horse, and those conditions is what saw him run to a career best RPR of 146.
He was a decent horse when he was first trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, but he lost his way a bit when he moved yards to Jonjo O'Neill, which saw his chase rating drop from 135 to 120. His first run back for Nigel saw him win on the back of a 291 day break, winning at Stratford. At the time the form probably wouldn't have been deemed to be that strong, but in hindsight he beat a well-handicapped horse in Francky Du Berlais. That horse has since improved from a 117 rated chaser to 147, which recently saw him win the Summer Plate Group 3 at Market Rasen. Since that win over Francky, his form dropped off, as he was tried over 2m and 3m trips, which I don't think suits him at all. This season he has fell and finished 7th over hurdles, but now he is back on a low mark of 122 and over fences. The time off the track isn't a worry as he has previously won off a break before, and like I mentioned previously today's conditions should be perfect for him.
My main concern is the form of the stable, who have started this summer jumps season below par. Nigel Twiston-Davies has only had 6 winners from 111 runners, but has had 23 placed horses, so he might be slightly unlucky with the amount of winners he has had.
As for the opposition, I think Vinnie The Hoddie will be one of the main rivals, as he generally runs well on his second run after a break, but I'm hoping he doesn't challenge us for the lead, as that would be a pain. Lock's Corner arguably looks in the grips of the handicapper now, and will take a big run to win off 12st, and the same comments apply to Pink Eyed Pedro. Vision Des Flos and Zoffee are closely matched, and I'd say Zoffee might be better over shorter, and Vision Des Flos struggled to beat that rival, so I'm not totally convinced on that form. Templehills could be the value of the race.
12:00 Wincanton - Race: 1
12:10 Galway - Race: 1
12:25 Wexford - Race: 1