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Yesterday's selection Star Citizen was poor, despite getting the ground he wanted, and was well backed into 11/2. They didn't go a good gallop, which for a 5f sprint is a bit of a joke, but it suited the winner, so you've got to say it was a good ride. However, for the horses in behind it wasn't great, as they were keen. The selection would've preferred a quicker pace to aim at, but he didn't appear to be on a going day.
A trappy little contest this with four decent sprinters taking their chances in a Conditions Stakes, and though he is carrying top weight, I'm going take a chance on TARBOOSH who has been inconsistent this year, but is the biggest price of the lot.
I'm not siding with him just because he is the biggest price, but for the reason that he will handle the ground, which will more than likely remain as Good To Soft and I think he is the quickest horse in the race, and with no great pace likely to be set, he could put his pace to use when it turns into a proper sprint in the final couple of furlongs. He won this race in 2018, doing it easily. This years race looks tougher than the renewal he won, and the weight he has to concede won't be a help either. He was then aimed at this race again in 2019, but he pulled his chances away that day, and the vet said he was showing signs of prolonged recovery.
Kevin Stott takes the ride, and he gets on well with this horse, winning four times and being placed four times in 10 rides. If the lack of pace causes Tarboosh to pull, it wouldn't surprise me to see Kevin go to the front rather than fighting him; he knows the horse better than any other jockey and knows what's best for him. Hopefully he settles, as if he does then he does have a big chance.
Motagally has been in front of Tarboosh a couple of times already this season, and now carries 7lbs less. However, he has been withdrawn the last two times he's been entered to race due to the soft ground, so if they do get more rain than expected it would surely ruin his chances. Dubai Station probably wants further, so would have to set a real strong pace for it to suit for him, but that would probably set it up for the closers. Danzeno would be the main threat in my opinion, as he'll handle the ground and is a previous winner at the course. If Babyduke wins this race on debut, that would be some miracle for connections.
12:00 Ayr - Race: 1
12:15 Cork - Race: 1
12:35 Ayr - Race: 2