This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Kimifive ran a decent enough race at Epsom yesterday. It was a little strange as he appeared to be off balanced when making his challenge up the rail. The fact that happened when he's ran well on similar tracks and ran well at Epsom before, was a little odd. Today I've gone for an EW priced horse at Bath who could outrun her odds.
A horse who should be better than her current mark of 77 in the future is ROYAL EVENT. She's only raced four times to date in her short career, and though she hasn't shown the same level of ability as some of her siblings, she has shown enough to warrant respect off her current handicap mark.
This daughter of Golden Horn is a half-sister to Group 1 winner, King Of Change, and 10 times winner Century Dream, who is also a Group winner and has been rated as high as 117. Unlike her siblings, there is a high possibility that Royal Even will be better over a longer distance, which is why I think she could improve for today's trip of 11.5F. Royal Event is by Golden Horn, which should mean she'll relish this step up in trip, like most of his progeny do, especially on quick ground. Both the Dam and Sire of Royal Event had their best form on a quick surface, so you'd expect her to appreciate today's conditions, despite the fact her siblings appreciate a slower surface.
Her four runs to date has been a mixture of promise and disappointment. Her seasonal reappearance at this track was a good run, when her odds of 22/1 suggested that she had no chance she ran better than those odds and stayed on well over the 1m trip. The form of that race has actually worked out quite well with the 2nd and 3rd winning since. Her next run at Newmarket was also another good run, only being beat by an impressive filly from the William Haggas stable which produced an RPR of 100. As for her final run, it was too bad to be true, and I'm willing to look past that run, as runs like that can happen to fillies where it's hard to explain, as they often run when being in season, without the trainer knowing.
This is a decent enough race for the grade, with a couple of unexposed horses who will be fancied in the market. My initial feeling is that Royal Event will be overlooked in the market, and will offer good EW value.
12:00 Ayr - Race: 1
12:15 Cork - Race: 1
12:35 Ayr - Race: 2