Racing tips: State Man will prove he is a Grade 1 quality horse in the Champion Novice Hurdle

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Fair to say it's been a good couple of days in the thread for me, with back to back days of landing 2/2 selections. Once again, hopefully some of you got on yesterday's double as that returned around 11.5/1 after the rule 4's. Finger's crossed on another good day, it'll be hard, but definitely possible.

Punchestown 6:00

Though it might not seem a risk on backing STATE MAN as he was impressive at the Cheltenham Festival, I do think it is still a risk backing him in a Grade 1, but what I will say is that he's clearly a Graded level horse, and I'm willing to put my money on the line to find out whether he's Grade 1 level or not.

There were whispers around the Festival that State Man was a certainty in whatever race he turned up in, and they weren't wrong. The way he travelled through his County Hurdle win was very impressive. He was positioned quite wide, but that didn't cause any problems as all Paul had to do was keep him out of trouble and he would win, and that's what he did. The form of that race hasn't worked out at all with the horses in behind not running well since, but that doesn't really bother me as he won that race with ease and was clearly well ahead of the handicapper of his mark of 141. The trip is an unknown, but he stayed up the hill at Cheltenham well enough to suggest that a step up in distance will be within reach. Punchestown isn't as much of a stamina test at Cheltenham, so his speed will come into play in this and you better believe he'll be on the bridle turning for home.

I think Three Stripe Life is a very good yardstick, he's been racing in good company for most of the season and has seen the backside of Sir Gerhard for the most of it. He eventually got his day in the sun last time out at Aintree where he got his deserved Grade 1, but it was a fairly weak race in the grand scheme of things, and the fact a 135 rated horse finished runner-up would suggest that. He's had a long campaign, so might struggle to be 100% for this race, and even though he is priced up at decent odds, I think State Man will have the measure of him. Flame Bearer is an interesting runner, and a horse who will be strongly supported on the day (I think), as he hails from a smaller yard and looks progressive. It would be a lovely story if this horse was to win for P M J Doyle, and I do rate him being the main danger, as the form of his Naas Grade 2 win now looks a little better as the 2nd ran a belter to finish 3rd behind The Nice Guy over 3m a couple of days ago at odds of 33/1.

Punchestown 6:35

Billaway has always appeared to be a horse who is a strong stayer, and these days it seems that 3m is on the border of being too short. He only just about won at the Cheltenham festival, doing it in the dying stages and that was over 3m 2.5F, so for that reason I think he is worth taking on. I'm not going to lie, I was expecting slightly better odds on VAUCELET, but despite the fact I think he is shorter than ideal I think he does have the beating of the Mullins horse.

D M Christie, the trainer of Vaucelet has been in good form this year, especially with similar types like this horse. One of his horses ran Billaway to the limits at Cheltenham, so he knows what kinds of horse is required to potentially get the upper hand on him. He is a good trainer with the small amount of horses he has, and I believe this lightly raced 7yo has plenty more improvement to come. He is 2/3 in PTPs and 4/5 in Chases, winning his last race by 20L. He appears to be better suited to a quicker going, where he has done most of his winning. He finished behind Dorking Cock in December, but that was over a shorter trip and on soft ground, so I'd expect a different outcome with today's conditions looking in favour of our selection.

Newmarket 4:45

A horse I tipped up last time, and I was confident of him winning but he didn't was, CAROLUS MAGNUS. He tried to make all at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago, but didn't quite last the race out, looking like a horse who would come on plenty from his reappearing run. With that run under his belt I think he could be tough to beat in this contest. His mark has been unchanged, but gets the talented 7lb claimer, Harry Davies, doing the steering. The ground and trip is fine, and he is effectively lower than his last winning mark when you consider the rider's claim, so it would be disappointing if he wasn't winning this.

Goodwood 5:00

I tipped up DIAMOND CUTTER last year in a Class 2 York handicap, where he was running off a very low weight. He ran a pretty shocking race that day, but his odds of 66/1 suggested that was going to be the case. That run was off a mark of 76, and I thought he was more than capable of being better than that mark, so the fact he runs off 67 today makes him very appealing to me, even though he is yet to win a race and hasn't shown the best level of form in his starts to date. I'm a big fan of David Menuisier, what he does is impressive and I don't think he gets the credit and recognition that he deserves, when his horses are hot, they are red-hot and even though he has only had 2 wins in the last 14 days, I can see a good level of consistency and I think he'll get a few winners over the next few weeks. He is another who is shorter in the market than I was hoping for, but he has been nibbled in the market, which gives me a little more confidence that a big run is on the cards. This is a small bet, as he hasn't shown a great deal, but from bottom weight I think he could run a nice race.

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