Racing tips: Soft ground will see Excelsis Deo return to form

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Floueur was a shocking selection from me in the Midlands National. He was prominent but as soon as he made a tiny mistake he went backwards and it was curtains. 

Chepstow 2:05 – Anglers Crag 11/2 (1pt ew)

I tipped up Faustinovick on seasonal reappearance, managing to tip him for the only win of his career, and I've tipped up Dentley De Mee from his last two runs, but I think I've learnt my lesson with this horse.

Anglers Crag is a horse who has the ability, but things haven't quite gone right for him. I'm still unsure whether he'll stay the trip, but if he does then he's got a cracking chance.

He's got the form from hurdles to suggest he can be better than a handicap mark of 110 over fences. He beat Dubrovnik Harry over 2m 4f on soft ground. That horse then went on to finish third in a Grade 3 handicap at Sandown, recording an RPR of 131, and is now rated 126.

I thought his return run this season was a decent start, finishing 3rd after travelling strongly for a long way at Ffos Las. Though he does go well after a break, he probably did need the run after 279 days away from the track. He then made his chase debut at Exeter where he once again travelled very sweetly until falling three from home after making a slight mistake. Exeter has a fairly long run-in, so it's hard to say what would've happened, but he went off 9/2 that day and was jumping well for the most part, so I think he would've gone close. They then decided to run him again just 9 days later, which in hindsight wasn't the best of ideas. His jumping fell apart that day and he ploughed through a fence, which put his chances to bed. But considering he does tend to run well after a break, running him 9 days after a run was never going to work. They've not run him since, so comes to Chepstow nice and fresh, and if his jumping holds up, he could be one of the unexposed ones who could beat the older horses.

Chepstow 3:50 – Excelsis Deo 11/4 (2pt)

I tipped up Excelsis Deo last time around in a tough Warwick handicap. I was concerned about the ground that day, thinking it might be too quick for him, but I took a chance that his pedigree would suggest it'd suit, but it didn't. Now he's back on a slow surface, I think he can continue his progression, as he did look like a nice horse to follow and 0ne which could definitely improve past his current handicap mark of 135.

When I tipped him up last time around, I put in my comments that when I saw his round of jumping on stable debut I was blown away for a horse to do that to some good handicappers after 320 days off the track and at the age of 4. He was well-supported last time around, into 11/4F, but like I said at the beginning, that ground never suited him, his jumping fell apart due to it and he never looked happy on that type of ground.

He's back into a small field of runners, which should also suit and I think this race is his for the taking. Sail Away was impressive last time around on good ground running over 3m, beating the runner-up by 20L. According to the Racing Post, the runner-up ran to form, just 2 lbs lower than his actual rating, so you've got to say that it was a good performance, despite being 4/6F. However, Sail Away is coming back in trip and on softer ground against better horses, so I think he might struggle. Jetoile was a decent novice hurdler and is a decent chaser but I think he is in the grips of the handicapper and off his current mark he will get beaten by a horse who is ahead of the handicapper, which I think Excelsis Deo is.

Carlisle 3:35 – Sam's Adventure 6/1 (1pt ew)

I put up Sam's Adventure for the Eider Chase three weeks ago and he didn't go a yard. He was eventually pulled up after a shocking run in a race I was quite keen on him running well. I think his confidence went when he didn't jump a few fences well and it was curtains from that point.

That wasn't a true showing for him, and he had been running well until that race, with a 3rd over 3m 6f at Catterick and a win over 3m 1f at the same track. He is a horse who likes testing conditions, which is what he'll get today, and back into a Veterans' only race, I think will suit him as well. He runs off a 4lb higher mark than when winning the time before last, but Patrick Wadge claims 2lb more today than he did that day, so is effectively only 2 lbs worse off. That run at Catterick produced an RPR of 132, so he is well-handicapped based on that and on previous exploits.

I think he will run a big race in this, if his jumps holds up and off a low weight of 10st 7lbs (10st 2lbs with the claimer), he can run a belter.

Sha Tin 8:40am

I know nothing about Hong-Kong racing, so this isn't a tip. But in one of the Cheltenham Festival Previews, one of the guys on the panel said to save some money for Sword Point in the Hong Kong Derby. I'll have a few quid on him, just thought I'd pass it on. Tweet is below:

🗣️ "Save a small few quid after Cheltenham for Sunday morning…"

🇭🇰 What better way to end our 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗺 𝗙𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹 preview night than a tip from @gcunning12 in the 𝗛𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗞𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗿𝗯𝘆… pic.twitter.com/xqDEyai6P3

— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) March 8, 2023

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