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Sevenal definitely looks to be a horse who could be much better than his mark of 84. Hopefully, he'll show his full ability at Nottingham.
Frankie Dettori makes the trip to Nottingham for one ride on Wednesday, with SEVENAL being the horse he makes the trip for. Frankie doesn't really ride many horses at these kind of tracks, especially in recent years as he is now 50 years of age. He generally picks and chooses where/when he wants to ride, and that is normally a good indicator of the horses chances.
Sevenal was better than the bare result at Windsor. He took a keen hold, and when he got to the front, he hung to the left. Despite these issues, once he got the hang of it, he ran on well and put the race to bed, and looked to have plenty left in the tank. John & Thady Gosden have reached for the headgear, which is no surprise, and that should help him settle and hopefully reduce the movement when Frankie goes for the whip.
Off a mark of 84, you'd think there is more to come, as he is a well-bred horse, being by Sea The Stars and out of a Group 1 winning mare.
The form of his three races seems okay, with the main boost coming from Mutasaabeq, who beat Sevenal by 1.25 lengths, and he has since finished 7th in the 2000 Guineas.
Frankie has won 2/6 at Nottingham in the last 5 years (+3.67 to level stakes).
After three good runs, and is now making his handicap debut off a mark of 75, I think GENERAL SAGO is worth siding with.
David O'Meara's lightly raced gelding is the most unexposed horse in this line-up and arguably has the strongest form. He's finished behind a couple of nice types in Spycatcher and Twilight Calls. Though the latter failed to win the other day, he was beaten by another nice horse, and they both look to be at least mid to high 90 rated.
On his most recent start he was beaten by a debutante, but I still believe that the form of that race will work out well. He showed his battling abilities, as he was headed over a furlong from home but he put his head down and carried on to the line, where he didn't quite manage to peg back the winner. The front two pulled 1.5 lengths clear of the third, who was carrying a penalty, as he won a novice race previously, and I think that he will be a decent enough horse as well.
With only three runs under his belt, I expect that there will be more to come.
CITRON MAJOR popped out to me as a horse who would appreciate the fast ground he will encounter today. His best form has come on quick ground, that is why I am willing to forgive him for his two under par performances in his last couple of runs, where the ground was good-to-soft. Prior to those runs, he finished 2nd to Staxton over C&D in a Class 2 race, which has produced some nice form, with Mr Lupton and Desert Safari both winning since.
Last year, Citron Major managed to win over C&D off a mark of 83. Today, he races off a mark of 84, which is definitely a winnable mark for this horse, as he's previously won off 89, 88 & 86 in the past. He is a strong stayer over 6f, so a fast pace will be ideal, and there is a strong chance that he could get that with a few noticeable front runners.
At the time of writing he is the second biggest outsider of the field, so an EW play on him is what I'd suggest. It wouldn't surprise me if he drifts out as well, with the Nigel Tinkler yard being completely out of form.
Advised: Each Way
17:00 Kempton - Race: 2
17:30 Kempton - Race: 3
18:00 Kempton - Race: 4