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Goodwood seems tricky again today, so just the one selections from there. Stratford is the destination for the second selection for their summers jumps card.
A horse who I feel owes me some money is, PATIENT DREAM. This horse was tipped up on this page on Derby/Oaks weekend, and I was extremely confident that he'd win his race, only for him to have a horrible passage on the rail, which ended his chances completely. There is a chance that this could happen again, but I'm willing to ignore the fact that Goodwood can be a hell hole for horses drawn low and get a position on the rail, as I think he is still on a mark where he can be very competitive. So here's hoping for a clear run through.
I didn't manage to back him next time out after the Epsom race, and of course he won. That's what happens when you have at least five meetings or more on per day; you get bogged down and miss horses you'd like to back, but it happens. He's been put up 3lbs for that win, which is instantly negated by Ray Dawson who will claim 3lbs, meaning he is effectively running off that same rating as last time out. He handles Epsom very well, with is a good indication that he will handle Goodwood, as they are very similar tracks, with the downhill finish.
Ralph Beckett has been in good form recently, getting two winners on the opening day of the Goodwood festival, also he's operating at a 27% SR in the last 14 days.
Running off 7st 11lbs, with the jockey's claim taken into consideration, it's hard to see Patient Dream out of the frame, as he has a lot going for him. He should handle the track, he handles soft ground, and he's in good form. Horses with low weights generally do quite well in this race. Since 2016, three horses have won with light weights, including 8st, 8st 4lbs and 8st 2lbs.
The return to Stratford will hopefully help SEE THE SEA run a better race, as she seems to like running at this track.
Two of her best three runs have come at Stratford, which instantly gives the impression she is better at this track than any other that's she previously raced at, and is an encouraging sign that she could bounce back to form. Her two previous appearances at this track have come off handicap marks of 125 & 123, which have produced a 2nd and a 1st. Today, she races off a mark of 114, which makes her reasonably well treated off old pieces of form. For most parts of the summer and spring she has been out of form, but she has slowly been running better races one at a time, with the most recent run being a decent effort, as it produced an RPR of 115.
She was dropped 2lbs for that recent run, which will be a big help, and another big help with be Brian Hughes getting back in the saddle. Brian has enjoyed a nice start to the jumps seasons, operating at a 27% SR in the last 14 days, and has already accumulated 37 winners from 197 rides this season. Donald McCain's horses are in good form currently, he has had 6 winners in the last fortnight and his RTF (running to form) is arguably one of the best in the country at 67%.
Solstalla is a worthy favourite, at the time of writing, as she is in the form of her life and has a good chance of landing the four-timer. She beat See The Sea, but there is a 7lb swing the weights, and that will make life harder for her, but I think this venue will play to the strengths of See The Sea.
17:00 Kempton - Race: 2
17:30 Kempton - Race: 3
18:00 Kempton - Race: 4