This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Flat racing has been so odd this year. There have been so many upsets at the top level and yesterday was no different in the Flying Five Stakes which saw none of the top three in the betting win, which seemed completely out of the picture when looking at the race. The runner-up was rated 102…so god knows what happened, but Art Power was very flat, as soon as he got headed he went backwards very quickly.
Perth 4:47 – Saint Arvans 4/1 (1pt)
I'm not quite sure why Perth have decided to water their track knowing full well they will be getting showers on Sunday night/Monday morning, as it's still classed as summer jumps season and surely they should be looking towards good ground or slightly quicker, but with the rain it might send it to good to soft. I'm hoping not much rain falls as it will hinder the chances of Saint Arvans.
If the rain stays away I think Saint Arvans has a very strong chance now he is dropped in grade. If you look at the most recent run you'd say it was a fairly average performance being 4th/12 and 15L behind the winner, but the winner that day was ridiculously well-handicapped having finished a close second at Market Rasen's Summer Plate, and he won by 12L to the runner-up, so there wasn't much distance from 2nd to 6th. I really do rate that race for form, the fancied horses all ran to their level, they just bumped into a progressive horse. To put the form into perspective, the 7th placed horse won by 21L yesterday on his next start when dropping into a Class 4 from a Class 2.
When I saw Saint Arvans running over 3m earlier this year I refused to believe he would stay, but it's brought out a new lease of life for him and he has looked very good over today's trip, especially with today's apprentice, Connor Rabbit on board. He is already a C&D winner from back in June off a 4lb lower mark, but he won with plenty of authority in that race against a solid opponent in Presentandcounting. This field doesn't look too strong and two horses are very inexperienced over fences and look prone to mistakes. The bottom weight is interesting having won last time out off a similar weight, but I think Saint Arvans is better than the horse he beat, so the top weight shouldn't be an issue. The Lucinda Russell horse is very hit-and-miss and suffered an irregular heartbeat last time out, so is definitely best watched.
Newton Abbot 4:25 – Presenting Yeats 12/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)
Milton Harris won this race last year with Mr Yeats who runs again this year, but I prefer his other horse, Presenting Yeats.
Trainers like to get repeat victories in races, and normally with the same horse so it's no surprise to see Mr Yeats turn up. The problem is, Mr Yeats is 8lbs higher this year and looks in the grips of the handicapper. Also, his regular jockey, Bradley Harris has decided to jump ship to Presenting Yeats who is well-handicapped on old pieces of form and did bounce back to form last time out 36 days ago at Market Rasen. I wouldn't say he's ridiculously well handicapped off his rating, but when you factor in Bradley's 5lb claim, he is then 7lbs lower than his last winning mark back in October of last year.
He is a C&D winner which is always a big tick when looking through form lines and he is a strong stayer, albeit he is a lazy horse. If he does go on to win, Bradley will definitely have worked for his riding fee as he only does what is required and has to be cooled and encouraged much earlier than you'd like, but the ability is definitely there.
Obviously, Emmet Mullins has sent one over so he is the one to beat and is mightily short in the market, but you can't run scared from every Emmet horse, they don't always win and at 12/1 I think Presenting Yeats is good EW value.
Perth - 4:47 pm
4/1 @ PaddyPower
Newton Abbot - 4:25 pm