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Saturday was tough and to be honest, most of this month has been tough. Both selections were underwhelming yesterday and I don't have any excuses to highlight in regards to their performances on the day.
Connections will be disappointed with Live In The Dream, I was confident on that one getting the job done yesterday without any real fuss. My other selection Witch Hunter traveled up well and looked like she was going to swoop past at one point, she found little of the bridle and her chances of winning were over in a flash.
Sunday's racing isn't great and we are limited to just the three meetings within the UK and Ireland.
Racingbreaks Ryder 4/1 – Goodwood 2:10
I tipped this horse on the thread not long ago and although letting me down on the day, I feel he is worth another roll of the dice in this contest.
The handicapper has given Racingbreaks Ryder every chance having dropped him 8lb in three runs this season, two of which have come after his latest run which was probably his best effort this season. Jockey William Buick who rode last time retains the ride which is another positive going into this race.
My selection completed a four-timer at Ascot just over a year ago, his form pretty much spiraled after that and it's taken some time for this horse to show signs of a return to form. Nevertheless, in his most recent race over the same course and distance 16 days ago, he showed signs of improvement by finishing strongly despite starting slowly and finding himself a fair distance behind the main pack. If he can build on that effort and break on terms, he has every chance of returning to winning ways.
Toimy Son is another horse who I've tipped on here in recent times, he too has been running well recently. Toimy Son finished ahead of my selection when the pair met last time out at Goodwood. Toimy Son had first run on my selection that day and is drawn widest for this particular contest which makes things a lot harder which is why I opted to avoid him this time out.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Hamavi 12-23 longchamp 🇫🇷 15-8 bet365.
Putting this up now in case it’s backed which I think it might be.
This Andre fabre horse’s stablemate casapueblo is the odds on favourite but hamavi chased home look de Vega here last month finishing 2nd to that rival who went on to win last week’s french derby.
This only his 3rd run so improvement should be forthcoming.
Roshvar 2-50 longchamp 🇫🇷
11-10 top 4 place BETFAIR (single)
14-1 ew 3 places bet365.
Duffle coat 3-42 Perth 3-1.
Been feeling his way in slowly in chases before winning a much better race than this in Ireland last time.
UK handicapper has been unreasonably harsh but hoping he has left enough in the margins to get over the line.
I’m sure fatty Elliot wouldn’t send him here if he thought he had no chance
Elvis Elliot has sent 3 horses there today .Might be worth a round robin.
GL
Hedonista 4-30 Goodwood 100-30
Ran well on season debut over this 2 mile trip and kops a nice low weight to help, 8 stone 11….
BUS STOP
Elliott’s 3 ⬇️⬇️
1-27 clodders dream 6-5
2-32 muhtaluza 100-30
3-42 duffle coat 3-1
Elvis . .Trouble is ive already bet against 2 of them .
PERTH
14.32. .Belle Of Annandale. .7/2 . .(8/1)
15.07. .Planned Paradise. .11/2. .(8/1)
15.42. .Karl Philippe. .4/1. .(5/1)
16.17. .Cap Du Nord. .9/1. .(11/1)
Prices in brackets are what I got last night just to show why I have bet E/W on them all . But only correct to put the prices up at time of posting but E/W value not as good.
But does show the advantage of looking early
GL ALL
Elvis sorry should have put my bets on a seperate post not attached to yours .
GL
Good luck bus stop, except for Karl Philippe of course 🤣🤣
in reply to hotshotz on yesterdays thread. you claimed the page needs point tracking in order for us to benefit. you claim it is easy and essential. you claim not to be negative despite throwing around -75pts.
you are right, point tracking is easy, so why aren’t you doing it yourself?? it’s your own hard earned cash you’re parting with at the end of the day. if you bet what you can afford to lose, there is no room for crying. relying on someone else to win you money i’ve found is suboptimal.
i have personally tracked this thread since the start of 2024 and can say without a shadow of a doubt, despite a bad start to June, Cairnzy cannot be shot at. in april and may, he gave us 125 chances to win, 30 did, 27 were 2nd. is it his fault the bookies are mugging us off and taking away BOG??? with BOG he is actually in profit.
you point was about implementing a point tracking system. it is useless and definitely not essential as you claim. he could post 10 losers in a week, and then his followers who lose faith miss out a week later when he recoups everything back and much more. you see? sharpen up your betting strategies,bet to a level stake, every tip with a bankroll or take your losses on the chin, in silence. if his writes ups aren’t convicting you, nothing will.
p.s. elvis, stop claiming anytime someone says something negative it’s me :P
Don’t know who you are but your write up here is spot on.
You get one Elvis horsey for your intellectual response to yesterday’s rant from an obviously disgruntled follower of cairnzys tips 🏇.
Thanks for the response juicin.
Firstly spot on about the BOG.
That’s also great info on your tracking, thanks.
If admin won’t post, perhaps you could every so often if your collating it anyway?
As I said in initial post , we ALL go in & out of form… form is temporary, class is permanent as the saying goes.
I think Cairnzys write ups are great & I know he is passionate… not my point tho.
The point is based solely on IMPROVING the thread by being transparent on current form of whoever tipster is.
As you get against the horse / trainer / jockey / track.
(The minus 75 points was plucked out of the air & clearly conveyed belief in a turn around – not one bit of negativity- or ‘crying over loses’ as you said.)
Also I don’t see anything other than honest posts from Elvis , who I don’t know or ever interacted with , so not sure of reason for dig…
Look it’s gambling! The house always wins , yadda yadda …. My WHOLE point is around improving, increasing our chances as a community & utilising the great info provided by cairnzy , elvis , the guys that post on flat only DC etc to the benefit of us all by showing the FORM .
Regardless of it being a free site or not , admin still make money off it & posters will be paid for write ups so have some accountability!
A great example would be the golf betting system – Steve has been providing the info for free for years & shows his results to all – so new visitors / intermediate or regulars alike all have full view….
I’ll leave this here, no intention of upsetting folks, as I have said… constructive observation only.
Peace & love to all
Guys sorry to way in here
But can someone tell me what the tracking system you guys speak of ? What is point tracking.
I come on this thread most days to read the write ups and an place bets some from here some of my own
I am going to be honest here I am a terrible closet gambler
£80 per day stalked per day as I have set my limit on that if I withdraw,winnings I then can bet the amount I withdraw on top
Past 3 years I’m currently sitting £6k losses I’ve had it way down then it goes way up in roundabouts
I’ll be honest I hate the way I bet at times I just go on and throw money at something just for the sheer hell of it
Yesterday had another great day won £550 from my £80 staked across all bets
Have bets on today £80 staked
But getting my head around I need to stop this as I work like hell to give my hard earned money away it really is a drug
ive set a timescale by end of coming week im giving this obsession up of trying to beat the house when it really can’t be done unless you really know what your doing and may have some inside info
Anyway today for anyone interested
£15 e/w double
2. Toimy Son 14.10
4/1
Abstract art 9/2 14.45
£2.50 trixie £10 staked
7. Racingbreaks Ryder
4/1
14:10 Today
5. Kinbara Firstdraft
11/4
14:32 Today
7. Double O One
3/1
15:20
£2.50 trice £10 staked
5. Principality
5/4
14:45
3. King Of Conquest
6/4
17:05
2. Change Sings
9/4
17.40
£15 double
Planned Paradise
5/1
15:07
15:07 Today
4. Cap Du Nord
10/3
16:17
£15 double
3. Euchan Falls
4/1
16:52 Today
5. River Ayr
9/2
17:27
Good luck everyone
as you have read and experienced stig, not many people win at this game, that is for a number of reasons, but it is generally accepted there is a way to at least give yourself a chance if you have half an idea and that is to bet to a level stake for long term gains in hope you remove the swings horse racing is synonymous with.
you are betting loads for someone who is by all acounts, just a casual punter who probably isn’t putting in much time studying/following race day in day out. glad to hear you identifying your problem, definitely start by reducing your £80 down to 20 or 40, and if that takes away the feeling you crave, then perhaps it is best left alone altogether but £20 per day is still more than plenty. there is no need to try and win thousands each day, those that do lose. just £20 a day probably covers your food bill for example… reduce your exposure and chip away at them day by day.
if you bet £20 per day every day, effectively it means your bankroll is £7300 for the year. you could have 200pts with this amount, meaning one point equates to £10, so if you have 1 pick that day, you can double stake it (2pts) at £20, converesely if you have 4, you could bet £5 on each/half a point. if you have a nap and nb and an e/w, you can go £10 win (1pt), £5 win (0.5pts) and £2.50 e/w on (0.5pts)… you’re keeping your head in the game, floating along until you hit a nice winner, then go again, bobbing along and boom another winner.
compare this to betting £20 on a single then £40 on a single, and £20 on a double, your money is gone, and it could’ve been because of luck in running. so you do what you can to give you the most chance of winning long term, like a poker tourney, discipline is key, you fold and fold to keep yourself in the game and eventually you get aces.
so if you followed cairnzy with a bankroll of 100 pts, £1 per point, back all of his selections £1 win, if each way, 50p each way. with his knowledge you should be able to maintain some kind of equilibrium, and be there for when he has good days. this means when he puts up 10 losers in a row, you aren’t really losing because if capable, which so far he has proved to be, he will get it back or most of it. it is the safe sensible approach. people who dont do this are likely chucking the odd bit of cash now and then on cairnzy and potentially miss his good days as they lose faith or lack funds and moan because they followed him for a week where things didnt go to plan.
you should perhaps looking into not backing doubles. or reducing your stake. once the money is on, its on. what if the first wins and the 2nd lose, you win nothing. what if there is a massive market move, the first wins and you know the 2nd cant. id say back the single, then if u fancy it, you can bet it all on the 2nd still, and i doubt you lose my value in price changes. you could also remove the initial stake and stick the profit on the 2nd horse, if the 1st loses you still can back the 2nd as a single… lots of think about, but as i posted earlier in a post yet to be approved, for example, rizzle lost 4 pts one money, but posted over 80 tips, he had spells of 15 loses in a row, but then got all the losses back in his next 7 tips, most people wouldve probably left him alone after those 15 losses and missed out on winning it all back as things balanced themselves out etc…
You seem like one of the few who actually make this game pay I think you should put up some tips as well 😂
Excellent advice , might give that strategy a go myself 😂
gambling is about risking money. a system is about winning money.
if the money you are risking isn’t a problem then do as you like but this game is too hard to voluntarily opt to have a crack at without proper attention, the lure of gambling can intoxicate people, chasing the initial euphoria ensurs rules are broken and before you know it your last £20 is on the 7pm at wolverhampton 3 days from christmas lol. if you want to win i think point tracking is important. it changes your objective, money stops being the main driving force. deciphering the winner from your own analysis becomes reward enough and sharing it with others, in turn the money takes care of itself.
i used to be called an after timer. in reality, i expected people to be putting in the same effort as me. it was not the case, after their pick would win i’d cross examine it and point out where people had got things a little bit wrong imo. i tried to instil some accountability, but that isn’t what this place is, just contributors doing it for their fun from their passion, sure they are trying but how can you win from any of them just backing them sporadically. you cant. if you learn the game, you can then look at others tips and may find yourself scratching your head. you will quickly stop following them and hopefully go it on your own or realise you dont actually care about the sport and just walk away, having the odd bet at the weekend or at festivals.
1st pick in France, hamavi won, always downhill after if the first pick wins.
Off on the Sunday trudge to do the shopping now, good luck today racing peeps 🏇
Crack 365
🇫🇷
Nice one to start day Elvis in France earlier, cheers
Bon appetite get yourself a baguette – for life shopping.
🇨🇦🇺🇸
Don’t think with prices a 4 fold be worth it??
At work so bit copy n paste and one write up
5 Folds
6 Folds
Acca x1
18:44 Woodbine…Rapid Grey 5/2 ****
Gulfstream form on Turf is best in field and this shipper should be favourite imo
20:33 Saratoga….Drake’s Passage 4/5
21:38 Saratoga…Fingal’s Cave 6/5 ***+
23:48 Saratoga…Spirit Of St Louis EVS
21.22 Churchill Downs…Who Dey 5/2 45p Rule 4 deduction # what is this?
19:13 Churchill Downs…:Emery 4/5
00:45 Santa Anita…Parenting 11/10
Fields are decimated with NRs at Saratoga but I excepted that so prices shortening and any im on a better process than stated above are heavily deducted BUT least there running.
Churchill seems fine and Woodbine 🇨🇦 be the NAP
GL yoll 🫡 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🧑⚖️ 🐎 🫎