Racing tips: Pretreville looks cracking value in the Group 3 at Leopardstown

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It's nice when the only bet of the day is a winner and that was courtesy of Rosscarbery who won in good style in her first attempt at Class 1 level for Paddy Twomey who has worked wonders with this filly like he so often does. 

Leopardstown 6:15

 Trainer: Adrian McGuiness

Jockey: Ronan Whelan

Form: 0-1221

To see odds of 10/3 and 3/1 floating around for PRETREVILLE is quite a big surprise as I think he has to be around 2/1 or 15/8 based on his run of last time out and the form of his 2nd behind Pears Galore. I don't think this race is that strong despite some well thought of 2yo's who have now turned 3 and some well established Group horses in Ireland.

Pretreville got the run of the race last time out, there's no denying that but he just looked like a horse who is in tremendous form and can continue to win races at this level. He was ahead of Real Appeal that day who was held up and was apparently “needing the run” but he was 5L behind my selection that day and will have to find a fair amount to swing the form around with him. There is a possibility that they try the same tactics from the front again in this 5 runner field as it looked to be very effective last time, and if they do that, he is going to be a tough nut to crack.

As I mentioned at the start, his form in the Gradguide Heritage Stakes Listed Race behind Pearls Galore reads well now as the winner has since won a Group 2 and the 3rd horse (Cadillac) won at this track in a Listed Race on the weekend just gone, winning by 3.75L.

Earlier this year he beat Thunder Moon who reopposes him today. He beat him convincingly by 1.25L that day on the back of a 90-day absence, so there's no guarantee he was 100% ready for that run, yet he still won with relative ease. Thunder Moon was a Group 1 winner as a juvenile, but things haven't really progressed since then, and I can't see how he swaps the form around with Adrian McGuiness' horse.

As for the two 3yo's in the race, I don't really rate them. Dr Zempf was a smart early 2yo who won on his reappearance this year, but the form of that race looks shoddy. He then bombed out when stepping up to a mile at The Curragh, and even though the form from the 2nd and 4th has boosted it, the argument that “he didn't stay” is total nonsense for the reason of the poor run. He was beaten from miles out and to my eye, he hasn't progressed to a 3yo. Ger Lyons' other horse is stepping up to 7f after being campaigned as a sprinter, so has to prove they are good enough at this trip. He has a mixed pedigree so it's up to debate whether it'll suit, but of the 3yo's I think he has the better chance.

If Pretreville was trained by a more well-known trainer he'd be half the odds he currently is, and that's why he is good value.

Nottingham 4:00

 Trainer: Rebecca Menzies

Jockey: Phil Dennis

Form: 77-014

STANLEY SNUGFIT has been a non-runner for me on both times I've put him up. The same applies to when I last put him on this thread, I'm not going to put too much in the write-up as I've already done it twice 😂.

The form of his Redcar wins has been franked with the runner-up winning twice since, going up 6lbs in the handicap. The 3rd, 5th and 6th have all won since, so for a Class 6 race the form looks red-hot. I think you can forgive him for his last run as it was a fairly fast turn around and he looked a little flat, so with some more time off the track for this run I think you can expect another big run for a horse who could still be a fair bit better than a 55 rated horse as he is still a 3yo and is still lightly raced.

Rebecca Menzies continues to be in good form and has won 3/11 races at this track, which is a good indicator of what to expect as it's clearly not a track she sends many of her runners to. Phil Dennis takes the ride, with this being his sole ride of the day which is also a good indicator.

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