Wednesday is another day where we see six meetings taking place. Bath is the venue for today's two selections, both quite short in the market, but definitely have strong chances.
The top two in the market will probably fight this one out, with It's How We Roll probably playing a part at some point during the race, but LADY ELYSIA appears to have the best chance, in my opinion.
Eve Johnson Houghton's 5yo filly really enjoys racing at this track, and she can hopefully rack up her fourth win at the track at the seventh appearance. Her form from the most recent win over this course and distance was franked by the runner-up, who has recently beat It's How We Roll, so on collateral form, Lady Elysia holds that horse, despite carrying a lot more weight. The form of her most recent run has been franked even though the horse who won didn't win, as he finished runner-up to a horse who was probably well-handicapped, and he will be winning races soon, so I imagine the form will work out quite well. Lady Elysia had to give 8lbs to the Sir Mark Prescott horse, who was well-handicapped, like a lot of his are, running off much lower marks than what they will be come at the end of the season, so it was a big run, arguably a career best.
Contingency Fee is the current market favourite, and is looking to land the four-timer. Despite being in really good form, I think the 5lb penalty which he has to carry could be too much for him, as it means he is effectively racing off 67, and he really struggled off 62 last time, just about winning by a neck. This new revised mark could be enough to halt another win, but he is dangerous nonetheless.
This isn't a very good quality race, but I am surprised to see the price of POINT LOUISE being as it is, as it wouldn't have surprised me to see her close to odds on, or odds on, as the level of form she has better form compared to the only other raced horse, Aradena, and the other horses don't really appeal too much.
Her most recent run at Chester was good, especially if you consider the wide trip she had when trying to make her challenge. She was three wide around the final bend, which isn't an ideal place for Chester, as you have to forfeit a lot of ground, but sometimes that's the route you have to take in order to get a run, rather than risking the inside rail. She ran on strongly to suggest that this step up to a mile will suit her more, and her pedigree suggests that as well.
I can see Stockhill Dream getting a bit of support, and it wouldn't surprise me to see her go off favourite. I get the feeling that in races like this where the favourite (Point Louise) is starting to look exposed, and hasn't won a race after seven attempts, they will back a horse who has a decent enough pedigree in hope they are ready first time out. There is a strong possibility that a newcomer could be better, but I'm not so confident that this trip is what Stockhill Dream will want. She is a home bred horse, and is the first horse out of the owners best horse, Stockhill Diva. She was rated as high as 93 in her prime, but her best trip was over 1m 4f, and she didn't win until tackling 1m 2f, which could mean this 1m trip will be too short.
12:00 Redcar - Race: 1
12:25 Perth - Race: 1
12:35 Redcar - Race: 2