This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Three of the four selections went through their races with plenty of zest but when it came to their finishing kick they lacked it massively. I expected a lot more from Equinus even though he was up in class, but maybe the recent run caught up with him, as he was carrying a very light weight.
Down Royal 12:17 – The Busy Fool 4/1 (1pt Bet365)
This meeting is generally dominated by Gordon Elliott, he targets this meeting heavily so going against one of his odds-on shots might not be the smartest moves, but I do think Better Days Ahead was very overrated last year. That horse came into bumpers with a big reputation but didn't quite live up to it and didn't exactly set the world alight, plus he was beaten at this meeting on his first run, so chances are that he might be best with a run under his belt, so I'm happy to take him on.
Phil Rothwell sends The Busy Fool up to Down Royal and it's his sole runner of the day and one of his regular jockeys, James O'Sullivan makes the trip just for this horse. Phil isn't known for having bumper winners, so the fact that The Busy Fool was his sole bumper winner in the last five years has to be taken seriously. He hasn't got PTP experience like many do in this race, but he has a very good NH pedigree, especially at staying trips so the trip on hurdling debut doesn't concern me at all. His bumper run would give encouragement that this trip is what he wants as he made up some serious ground in that race, as he wasn't positioned towards the front, he sat towards mid/rear and when the 7lb claimer asked for his effort he stayed on nicely.
I get the impression that Phil rates this horse and believes he has a nice one on his hands, he could have easily avoided this meeting as Gordon likes to send his smart novices, so the fact he's willing to take him on with this horse is encouraging. He will have the fitness edge over his market rivals due to his bumper run just 22 days ago, and I think he can hold his own in this.
Exeter 12:35 – Law Of Supply 13/2 (1pt PaddyPower)
I get the impression that there will be some decent horses in this race and the form will be strong as you have some nice-looking novices taking their place. Paul Nicholls has won this race four times in the last ten years so his odds-on shot has to be very respected, but the way Kim Bailey has been firing in the winners recently, I think you can take a chance on Law Of Supply.
He was a PTP winner on his last start as a pointer, he made an encouraging bumper debut in April at Chepstow, but based on that run bumpers was never going to bring the best out of him as pace doesn't appear to be his game. However, I saw plenty in that race which gives me confidence that he can do some damage over hurdles this year, if he's fit enough on seasonal reappearance I believe he can give the odds-on shot a real fright. He was seriously outpaced in that bumper race but when he started to hit top gear he motored, he didn't quite have the legs to reel them in but he finished a fast finishing 4th and staying trips over fences in time is what he'll be best at, but 2m 6f on hurdling debut is definitely a step in the right direction and gives him a chance of showcasing his ability.
Kim Bailey won this race back in 2020 with Bobhopeornohope who is currently rated 140 over fences, so it's a good indicator of the type of horse Kim likes to send to this race.
Exeter 4:00 – Broomfield Present 7/1 (0.5pt EW 4pl)
Though Kim Bailey's horse, Hurlerontheditch, cost me a four-fold the other day when jumping like a stag on chase debut, it's not enough to put me off from backing another of Kim's chase debutantes. This time around it is Broomfield Present.
This horse has always looked like a chaser and it's not a great surprise that they've opted for the switch to fences on just his fourth run. He looks like a proper galloper and the testing conditions will suit him, it'll test his fitness on his seasonal reappearance but this is the type of ground he relishes. Another thing I really like about this horse is that he is a real trier and will give you everything.
The big weight is always a concern but not as much as it would normally be as this horse is used to carrying big weights like he did at Haydock when last seen, winning off 12st and when he carried top weight to a runner-up spot at Catterick, conceding 10lbs to the winner. As I mentioned before, Kim is in great form at the moment and especially with his novices, so I think it does pay dividends to keep onside of trainers like this when they are on a hot streak.
Down Royal - 12:17 pm
4/1 @ The Pools
Exeter - 12:35 pm
13/2 @ PaddyPower
Exeter - 4:00 pm