Racing tips: Passenger can deliver back-to-back Derby wins for Richard Kingscote

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They didn't go a great gallop at Epsom yesterday and that clearly suited the Gosden filly who was always the horse in the race with a turn of foot. I'm not quite sure why Rob Hornby didn't commit for home much sooner and make it into a bit of a slog, as stamina is what Westover is all about over 12f, poorly judged ride for me, but you can't take anything away from the winner.

Epsom 12:50 – Regal Reality 5/1 (1pt)

This race could be messy with a small number of runners, and with Marie's Diamond being the notable front-runner, Hollie Doyle will want to make this a muddling race. However, that horse, even though he was once a Group level performer and he ran well in a good handicap last time out, he might struggle even if getting things his own way.

With the ground likely to be quick, even though they are watering (why are they?) it should be perfect conditions for Regal Reality who has always done his best running on fast ground. He is now an 8yo, so time isn't on his side, but when things click, he is a very capable horse, especially at this level, like we saw at Windsor last year.

The older horses in this race don't really take my fancy, at all. Kolsai is interesting being a 3yo and getting weight from every horse in the race, but the form he's produced isn't exactly strong and I think he is up against it now taking on the older horses. Regal Reality has already had a run this year, on soft ground which was never going to suit, and them pursuing him to run that day suggests it was a run for fitness, and I expect him to be fully wound up for today's race.

Epsom 1:30 – Passenger 7/1 (1pt EW Whill 4pl)

For the big race of the day, I will be sticking to my guns and giving Richard Kingscote another chance on Passenger. Normally, it would be giving the horse another chance, but Richard made a mess of the ride on Passenger in the Dante, and for me, if he got a clear run he would've won well and would be coming into this race as arguably the one to beat.

Richard Kingscote was a Passenger that day, if you pardon the pun, he couldn't find a single gap for over 3f and the horse was travelling sweetly. He eventually got the gap, but it came far too late and he finished 3rd behind The Foxes. There is a strong chance that the same might happen today, as we see on most renewals of the Derby, the position of the horse is key and we see many hard luck in running stories, Westover being the main one from last year. However, this lightly raced son of Ulysses clearly has bags of potential and if his inexperience doesn't hinder him, I think he arrives to Epsom with a very good chance.

Many of the main fancies for the Derby have done their best runs on soft ground, whereas we know for a fact Passenger handles the quicker surfaces, based on his debut win and his run at York. Fingers crossed on a clear run.

Epsom 2:10 – Prosperous Voyage 11/8 (3pt Win)

This race is similar to the first race, it could get messy with the pace, but I think the cream will rise to the top and Prosperous Voyage will come out on top.

Roman Mist put in a career-best last time out, and she made the running on heavy ground and will more than likely try similar tactics, but I don't think she'll be able to get away with setting her own fractions. Prosperous Voyage likes to sit handy and her form is miles clear of anything else in this race, winning a Group 1 and beating Inspiral is head and shoulders clear of the rest. Her form has taken a bit of a nose dive since then, but she's best effective on quick ground like we saw in the 1000 Guineas and in the Sun Chariot last year, she has raced on good to soft and soft since, and I think this track will play to her strengths, and that's proven already as she won here as a 2yo.

Epsom 3:20 – Live In The Moment 8/1 (1pt EW Whill 6pl)

The Epsom Dash is a bit of a lottery, that doesn't really need to be stated, but I think Live In The Moment comes into the race with a nice chance towards the bottom of the weights.

When trained by Adam West he was a very progressive handicap sprinter, winning five times and reaching a peak of 101 rated. His form then went downhill, after trying some big races at Meydan and then not coming back in great form on UK soil, but he did run a decent race in this last year, finishing 8th/20 off a mark of 90. Since then, he has left the Adam West stable and has joined Alice Haynes, who is a superb trainer and does very well with recruits from other yards. His handicap mark dropped to 84 last time out but that saw him return to form over 6f, finishing 2nd/16 recording an RPR of 95. He has gone back up 3lbs for that run, which isn't helpful but I think a real speedster track like Epsom, running off a low mark considering his past form, makes him competitive in this.

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