Racing tips: Paddy Twomey has another progressive filly on his hands with Rumbles Of Thunder

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Some nice action today with the Irish Derby and the Northumberland Plate taking centre stage.

Curragh 1:25

Trainer: G M Lyons

Jockey: Chris Hayes

Form: 21-12

It's not a great surprise to see Ger Lyon's stable jockey, Colin Keane riding the higher-rated two of his horses in this. It doesn't put me off that he has done that as the second string on paper do cause upsets, as we've seen many times before.

PIRATE JENNY is my fancy in the opening race at The Curragh. I was tempted to back her last time out where she was narrowly beaten by another stablemate, Geocentric. That horse is all about speed and Pirate Jenny stayed on strongly that day to make it a photo finish where she didn't quite get her head up on the line.

I think this filly is better over 6f which is a benefit for today's race as she gets going quite late on in her race, so the extra furlong will play to her strengths. She'll have to improve to win this based on what we've seen from her form to date, but that's not out of the question. Her run on seasonal reappearance was pleasing and better than what it looks on paper. She did a lot of the donkey work and had nothing to aim at on the stand's side at The Curragh that day. However, she picked up nicely and showed a nice turn of foot to stretch a couple of lengths clear, but that winning margin was shortened and I think that was due to fitness. She looked tired in the final furlong, but I don't think that's a stamina issue, but more of a first run of the season.

She is bred to be better over this trip, and the forecast rain shouldn't be an issue. Her half-sister was good on soft and the Dam ran well on soft ground when she was racing. Power Under Me is the one they have to beat, but with the weight-for-age concession and the sex allowance, she could prove to be a serious threat.

Curragh 2:00

 Trainer: J P Murtagh

Jockey: Danny Sheehy (3)

Form: 23-521

Johnny Murtagh is still relatively new to the training ranks, but from the years of watching him, I think he is a good target trainer and I think he might have found a nice opportunity to land a decent bit of prize money with his 3yo filly, KARKIYNA.

It's up for debate whether the 3yo weight-for-age allowance is enough to warrant a selection over the older, more mature horses. In this case, I think it makes the 3yo filly of Carravagio an appealing bet as she is running from bottom weight and based on her progression on her handicap mark, she doesn't have to improve all that much to get seriously involved.

Her recent win at Fairyhouse was an easy success, where Ben Coen made the fractions and she didn't see another horse. It wasn't a race full of above-average horses but she did it with a minimal amount of fuss and that was probably to get the confidence into the horse to break her maiden tag. She had previously run well in defeat until last time out, so it was probably an important thing to get a win under her belt. She ran with plenty of credit in a decent-looking maiden at The Curragh where she didn't get the clearest of runs, being boxed in, and by the time she had the gaps, the race was already over. The time after at Gowran Park she was fancied to win that in good style as the 8/11 odds suggested but she might've bumped into a half-decent horse in the winner who improved plenty from her only other run. She finished runner-up that day and pulled clear of the rest, including a horse rated in the low 80s in 3rd and the horse back in 4th has run well on a couple of occasions since.

Though there's good money up for grabs I don't think it's the most competitive. There are some old-timers in this who are on the downward spiral, who could still win due to their dropping handicap marks, but they're susceptible to a progressive younger horse. Emilie Gray is an interesting runner with the 10lb claimer on board, but I'm not convinced this trip is ideal for her with her pedigree suggesting further could be better. Of the others, I thought Affable had a chance at a decent EW price.

Curragh 2:35

 Trainer: A P O'Brien

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Form: 75-290

THE ACROPOLIS doesn't have your typical sexy profile like your usual Ballydoyle horse, but that doesn't mean he's a no-hoper like the odds are suggesting in this contest.

They clearly feel that there is a decent horse in The Acropolis as he has run in two Group 1's back-to-back in France where it didn't quite work out for him. I'm not for one minute suggesting he is a Group 1 animal but the runs he had, he had little chance of showing what he is capable of. The French 2000 Guineas was over at the start where he was held up in last place. With how racing unfolds in France, sitting off the pace isn't ideal as it often turns into a sprint in those races, and it looked like the horses sitting towards the fore benefitted a lot. The first four home were all in the first 5/6 turning for home and weren't far away from the pace and horses from the back struggled to get involved. Ryan didn't go crazy on him that day as he knew the race was over, but he did stick on to his credit and went past horses, showing some level of ability. As for the run in the French Derby, the same applies, but that was a good quality race and he wasn't expected to get close in that contest.

The run on seasonal reappearance showed the ability he had when finishing 2nd to Dr Zempf, who is a horse who put me in my place a couple of weeks ago when hosing up at the same track. I think if he was to repeat that form, he would be bang there in today's race and gives him a better chance than his double-figure odds would suggest.

He still has plenty of Group 2 and Group 1 entries for later down the season, so they are still optimistic about potentially getting him to that point.

Wexford Native is a horse who will be popular in the betting, but I'd be concerned about how hard he pulls in his races. His Royal Ascot run was appalling with the way he pulled Kevin Manning's arms. If he repeats that kind of attitude he might as well stay at home as even though this is a step down in class, it's not a weak race by any means.

Curragh 4:20

 Trainer: Paddy Twomey

Jockey: W J Lee

Form: 187-41

Though there's Mac Swiney in this race, who is/was the class horse, I think the Twomey filly has every chance off a much lower rating.

I tipped up RUMBLES OF THUNDER on her stable debut a couple of months ago where she ran a nice enough race, without troubling the winner, but it was a nice opener for her yard. She then showed that the first run was needed as she pummeled the Listed field, winning without getting into a sweat, doing it by 3L. Obviously, this race will be tougher now she's taking on the boys again, but I don't think it's mission impossible for her to win this.

It's quite annoying to see that she has been put up as favourite, and I think that's the bookies being scared that this filly could progress again like Paddy Twomey has managed to do with similar fillies over the last couple of years. I think this trip is going to be her ideal trip as she has a high cruising speed and a nice turn of foot.

I'm not going to get too excited about her for the future, but I could see this filly following in the footsteps of some of her stablemates who have progressed nicely as they got older, including Pearls Galore.

Newcastle 2:55

  Trainer: Richard Fahey

Jockey: Oisin Orr

Form: 32-552

MONSIEUR LAMBRAYS is a quirky horse and has been for the most part of his career. He's taken his time to get into form since moving stables to Richard Fahey's, but last time out at York was a return to form and a repeat performance should see him bang there in this valuable consolation race.

He has been held up for many parts of his career, but that changed last time out when Oisin Orr had him much closer to the pace. He has the plum draw in Stall 1 if they fancy getting a prominent position which could be handy in this race where a lot of congestion could happen, resulting in getting a hard run through the crowd.

He is rated 4lbs lower on the AW than turf, which is strange as he has won on the AW twice in his six runs. To me that makes him well handicapped on his recent run where he produced an RPR of 94 and was first past the post but lost that in the steward's room. He has run well at this track before and Richard Fahey's yard is starting to hit top form, especially over last week when he had two Royal Ascot winners.

Newcastle 3:30

 Trainer: Jim Goldie

Jockey: Paul Hanagan

Form: 331366

A small chance is taken on one of the bigger outsiders of the field with SIR CHAUVELIN.

Jim Goldie won this race last year win a big outsider, Nicholas T, who carved through the field like the Red Sea. Sir Chauvelin will have to do a similar ride if he wants to win this as he is drawn wide and will be run for luck. He is a hold-up horse anyway, so the wide draw isn't a problem as he would've been dropped out the back regardless of where he was drawn.

This race has been the plan for a long time according to Jim Goldie, and he's probably had this in his mind for this horse since the back end of last year. He's not been running too badly this year, including a 3rd at Kempton behind some runners in this race, who are now higher in the weights. It's obviously a competitive race and you'll get hard-luck stories all over the place, but I thought he was overpriced and was worth a small bet in one of the feature races of the day.

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