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Templehills was an 8/1 winner yesterday…somehow. Not quite sure how he won yesterday, as he jumped like a snooker table. However, I'm glad that I stuck with him and he repaid us for the poor run last time when he was also tipped up.
With a lot of forecast rain expected to arrive at Huntingdon and virtually none of the horses in the lineup are expected to enjoy the ground, so a chance is taken on GLORIOUS LADY.
The selection does seem to handle the soft ground which should be around at the time of racing, but she makes her first start for her new yard. Like a lot of recent selections, she will definitely be overlooked in the market, and you can see why that would be the case. She has been transferred from Keith Dalgleish's yard to Cynthia Woods. Cynthia doesn't have an appealing record, but she is definitely a capable trainer, so it wouldn't be too off-putting, but it will be enough to make people dodge this selection. She is 0/35 in the last five year, but has trained winners of PTP races in that time, so even though the stat doesn't read great, it doesn't help when you don't have the ammunition.
Glorious Lady has had two previous attempts over fences, where she didn't run without promise. She was convincingly beat, but showed enough that she could outrun her odds. All three of her hurdles wins came on soft ground, over 2m 4f or 2m 5f, and two came above today's handicap mark (119). She is currently rated 110, and I believe that is a mark she could get competitive off, especially when today's conditions don't suit a lot of the horses she opposes. Tabitha Worsley takes the ride, and she takes off a handy 5lbs. The time off the track isn't that much of a concern as she has won 3x when running fresh before, if you include her PTP win.
I do think she will continue to get bigger in odds due to her form and switch in stables. I'm not going to be playing a normal stake on this one, so a half stake seems more sensible (0.5pt Win).
ACHY BREAKY HEART appeals the most in a race where you'd think three horses out of the six can have a chance of winning on the bare form.
With the rain likely to hit, similar to the first race, not many will handle the conditions very well. Achy Breaky Heart has been withdrawn on bad ground before, so if the rain is bad and they believe he doesn't function on it, then I'm sure they will withdraw him. However, based on his pedigree, he should handle the ground, which is why I think he will actually run.
Another reason why I think a big run is on the cards is based on the Jockey booking. Paddy Brennan takes the ride, and when Milton Harris swapped a claimer for an experienced rider, he won. Last time Jamie Moore took over from Mitchel Bastyan, and the horse was well backed and won by 2 lengths. An interesting thing about today is that Jamie Moore is at Huntingdon, but Milton Harris has opted for the services of Paddy Brennan. Paddy is still one of the best around despite him getting on in age. He is currently operating at a 29% SR this season, which is 40 wins from 136 rides (Some going).
The horse is in good form and his current mark should be within reach. He won off a 2lb lower mark in July, and he went close off that same mark last time. The main danger is Railway Muice, and he was hit with a 12lb rise, and that might be enough to halt another win.