Racing tips: Olly Murphy is the man to follow when hot

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Thursday was a disappointing day. I took a couple of horses at EW prices, and they both didn't run great. Mumbo Jumbo was a tad unlucky not to win, didn't jump the second last too well and was running on strongly.

Wetherby 3:55 – Lounge Lizard 5/2 (1pt)

There have clearly been some positive vibes around this horse since he went chasing as he was sent off as 2/1F on Chase debut back in November, finished 6th/9 and was 100/30F for his second outing, finishing 3rd/9. Third time was the charm for Lounge Lizard at Catterick when he got off the mark over fences, not going off as favourite, but was still short odds of 5/2. The market strength signals that his horse has been showing a fair bit at home, but wasn't fully translating it to the track, but the blinkers seemed to work wonders last time around, and I think he can push now push on.

I say this quite a lot, but it's true, handicaps are tricky, but I do think Lounge Lizard might have the upper hand in this contest. I'm hoping Sam Twiston-Davies employs the same tactics as last time out, and that was get the lead and not see another rival. I'm not terrible at predicting pace, I look through the races and often think a horse will get an uncontested lead, but then a horse who has never led before decides to push the pace. However, this horse clearly enjoyed running from the front last time, so I expect the same here today.

He has gone up 7 lbs for that win and is now encountering softer ground, but I think he is capable of defying the mark and running on soft ground. He is by Kayf Tara, whose progeny seem to handle any conditions and his Dam was a very good horse herself, being 143 rated over hurdles and placed at Class 1 level, including running well and winning on soft ground.

Sam comes up to Wetherby for one ride, which signals that they fancy their chances in this. STD doesn't ride too often for Henry, and his main jockey for this season, Richard Patrick is also at the meeting, so could've easily sacked it off, but he rode this horse last time around, and clearly thinks he's worth the journey to Wetherby.

Henry is 1/1 at Wetherby this year and is 5/14 in the last five years, so doesn't like to waste his darts when sending his horses to this track.

Wetherby 4:25 – Mexican Boy 12/1 (0.5pt ew)

Olly Murphy is up there with being the most inform stable in the country, alongside Nicky Richards. He has been placing his horses very well, and seems to have a couple of well-handicapped horses who are enjoying their time when being upped in trip like Drop Him In was. I think Mexican Boy is another who will relish today's step up in trip.

This horse has shown very little in his runs over fences and hurdles, but he's clearly been running over distances far too short for him. He is another who is by Kayf Tara, who has produced some good staying horses, but this horse is a half-brother to Mance Rayder who stays 3m 4f, so it's quite apparent 2m isn't going to suit this horse. I always think it's interesting when a trainer goes from one extreme to another, and that is the case today with this horse, as he is being stepped up by a mile! With the yard being in such good form, you can't question their decision, and I think it is the correct one.

The ground is a question mark. His half-brother has been better on a good surface, but there are plenty of horses in the pedigree from the Dam's side who have enjoyed soft ground. I think he is definitely worth a play towards the bottom of the weights and is 12/1.

Olly Murphy has a ridiculous strike rate at Wetherby over fences: 6 wins from 16 runners 38% SR +33.50 profit to £1 level stakes.

Sean Bowen over fences at Wetherby in last five years: 5 wins from 12 runners 42% SR +29.00 profit to £1 level stakes.

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