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Ehraz should've been a winner yesterday at big odds of 16/1 but Ryan Moore moved him from one side of the track to the other to get a clear run. Sometimes they have to do that, and if it doesn't pay off then they get pelters, but it's either that or he waits for room which doesn't come so it's one of them. The other two selections on the day didn't run well at all, with Hollie Doyle going for home far too soon in the Melrose which I did think was a very poor ride.
Deauville 1:33 – Asymmetric 6/1 (1pt Bet365)
Asymmetric was the horse who beat Living The Dream when I put up the latter over 5f a few weeks ago at Deauville and I was impressed with the ex-Alan King trained horse.
This is a decent race and you have Garrus who is a good yardstick, and you have Mill Stream who is the young improver. However, at 6/1 I think Asymmetric is being seriously overlooked and that is good value against the two I mentioned before. His win at Deauville was his first start for current trainer, Maurizio Guarnieri after he had a brief spell with Wesley Ward which saw him run below what would've been expected when they acquired him from Alan King's yard. When he was a juvenile he was one of the top sprinters, which saw him win a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood and then finish 3rd in a Group 1 over today's C&D. I think he is at home on slower ground and that is why he managed to bounce back to form last time out. He had been running on firm ground in America, and though he handles fast ground I think he is better suited with juice in the surface.
He won over 5f last time out, winning by staying on the strongest off a strong early pace, but as a juvenile, he was kept to 6f so today's trip isn't a concern. Garrus is the one to beat on all known form but he is far too short in the market at EVS and he could be on the decline now even though he won earlier this year. Mill Stream won nicely over C&D but I don't think he beat much that day and has been doing his running in handicaps in the UK, so though he is clearly progressing and will be there at the finish I think Asymmetric is the value play and has a strong chance of winning this.
Naas 3:15 – Ocean Quest 13/8 (2pt Bet365)
I don't think soft ground is ideal for Ocean Quest but I think she handles it well enough to win races, and a race of this nature which doesn't look anywhere near as strong as what she has been competing in, should be enough for her to power clear.
She was my selection in the Commonwealth Cup won by Shaquille and I thought she ran a blinder to finish 4th. She was unlucky the time before over today's C&D when drawn on the wrong side of the track and they went into two groups, which definitely saw her being on the wrong side of the track and that saw her finish a close 2nd to The Antarctic. On seasonal reappearance she battered The Antarctic on heavy ground and that put her in contention for some big races this year.
This race doesn't seem strong, you have improving horses, but they haven't got the form close to what Ocean Quest has, apart from Ocean Jewel who was 3rd in the race behind The Antarctic over today's C&D but she was on the same side as the winner, so I think Ocean Quest put in a much bigger performance. I don't think she is amazing odds for this race, but I'd say she is at the right price of 13/8.
Deauville (FR) - 1:33 pm
6/1 @ Bet365
Naas - 3:15 pm