This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Thursday was a poor day and I expected better from both horses I put up. Miaharris was atrocious, she had a wide stall but she is normally held up anyway so that didn't hinder her chances. She didn't pick up in the same way she did at Newbury, maybe the run came a bit too soon for her, I'm not sure.
Katey Kontent ran an okay race, she was penned in on the rail when the race started to heat up, but she got the gap she started to stay on well. She didn't get the clearest of runs and did finish fourth. I know some bookmakers were offering 4 places so hopefully some of you go that rather than what I did and played for the higher odds with Bet365.
Down Royal 6:05 – Crassus 5/1 (1pt Bet365)
I'm a big fan of trends in racing, especially when a trainer has such a good record in a race as they clearly know what type of horse is required to win and it's obviously a target race. Noel Meade has won 3/4 renewals of the Ulster Cesarewitch with the only blemish of those four years coming in a race he didn't have a runner in! Based on that, his runner Crassus is definitely worth a second look in today's race.
On two of the three wins in this race, Noel Meade had Colin Keane booked, so the fact he has managed to secure Colin again is definitely a huge positive. Crassus has been running decent over both codes in recent times and I thought his recent effort at Bellewston was a nice run even though he was a couple of lengths behind Barnacullia who is also running in today's race. That race at Bellewstown was full of amateur riders, and the ride on Crassus looked very weak, especially in the finish where the horse had some left in the tank, in my opinion. With Colin on board, I expect a totally different performance, and he can reverse the form with the horse named before.
That was the furthest he had run on the flat and considering he was positioned towards the rear for the majority of the race and the fact he was starting to stay on again at the finish I think this extra furlong is going to bring out more improvement.
Haydock 3:45 – Diamondonthehill 11/1 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower)
On paper, this is a tough ask for Diamondonthehill with him running off a career-high mark of 87, but I think his recent form put him bang there and if repeating that level of form he could be the one to beat.
He has won four races in his career with three of the four coming over a mile, but I get the impression he might be suited to a drop in trip. He travelled like the best horse in the race at Haydock the time before last but didn't quite have the same finishing effort as the eventual winner, so knowing he has the speed for Haydock over a mile I think the drop to 7f could work to his advantage. He then went to Ripon in a Class 2 race where he was keen early into the race, (another reason the drop in trip will help) and he didn't get the clearest of runs through. Despite that, I thought he ran a mighty race and the 3L margin behind the winner doesn't tell the full story as I think Paul eased his efforts when he knew he wasn't going to win. The winner of that race was Isla Kai and I put that horse up for that race based on how well-handicapped that horse was, so I think the form reads well, especially when the third-placed horse was the one who finished ahead of Diamondonthehill at Haydock in the race previous.
He is drawn in stall 4, so ideally I'd like Paul to get a prominent position like Callum Rodriguez did on him when he rode him at Haydock, so that way he avoids the scrummaging which can happen in a decent sized field. If he gets a clear run I think he could take some stopping.
Down Royal - 6:05 pm
5/1 @ Bet365
Haydock Park - 3:45 pm