This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
A close and frustrating day to sum up Glorious Goodwood Day 1. Prince Of America did what I expected, he actually managed to get to the front, and when he did he was brave as ever and managed to grab 3rd, which didn't look likely but as I stated in the write-up he just keeps going and going and breaks horses hearts who challenge him, but he didn't have enough to win. The Goodwood Cup race was a farce, we all know that Quickthorn does that and yet the jockeys allowed it and they couldn't bridge the gap, with Emily Dickinson doing best of the rest into 2nd. The double started off well with Kinross winning, but the second leg finished last.
Goodwood 2:25 – Fast Response 9/2 (2pt)
If my weather forecast gets this one wrong then I'm in trouble and they should retire the website as Goodwood is apparently forecasting some heavy rain in the early hours of Wednesday and that should continue to the time of racing, which should make this ground a swamp. With that being said, you're going to need a horse that will handle those conditions and has a built-in snorkel in its kit, which I think Fast Response does.
This horse has a superb record when racing on soft or slower. She has won 4x on from seven tries with a further two runner-up finishes. She has won a Class 1 Listed race on heavy ground and finished second in two Listed races as well behind some good horses. She was behind Vadream earlier this season, and that horse is borderline Group 1 quality on heavy ground, so to finish 2nd to her isn't a disgrace by any means. She finished behind Holguin at Chester last time out when Fast Response was given no chance of winning when turning for home being second last, but the ground she made up when they straightened out was quite astonishing. I'm writing this write-up in the morning the day before, so it would be nice if Holguin runs a big race on Tuesday to frank the form, but even if he doesn't I still think it was a very big run by the Karl Burke filly to finish as close as she did on just her second start over 7f, which looks to suit her.
If I'm honest, this race doesn't seem that strong. I can imagine punters will want to get stuck into the more unexposed 3yo's in the race, but I can see many being withdrawn and this 16-runner field being probably half that size come the time of racing, and I think the stand-out claims come from Fast Response who is equally unexposed at this trip and is a proven Class 1 filly.
Goodwood 4:10 – Tropical Island 3/1 (1pt)
a 13-runner 2yo handicap normally wouldn't be my bag, but I feel like Tropical Island could rate a bit better than this field, which doesn't look to be full of star quality.
We've seen it happen at Royal Ascot when a horse has been impressive at one of the Yorkshire-based tracks that the form doesn't amount to much and they aren't as good as what the visuals/times tell you, but I thought Tropical Island ran a belter on debut and it looked like she could progress quite nicely into a potential Class 1 filly. She was slow out the gates at Ripon, but when Oisin Orr asked for her effort she glided through the field on soft ground like it wasn't a problem and won in convincing style. That recorded an RPR of 80, which is a decent effort on debut, especially considering the start she had. She was well-fancied that day, going off as 7/4F, and I think that's got to be taken into consideration as this owner has had some good horses with Richard Fahey over the years and they normally get it right when the money comes. Richard had a similar horse be backed in on debut for these connections called Pretty Crystal, she didn't win on his next two starts but she finished 5th/17 at Royal Ascot in the Albany and then finished 2nd/10 in another Group 3 at Ascot, so I'd imagine they would've been working together and they will have seen that Tropical Island is better than this field.
We know she handles soft ground based on that debut effort and I think she is worth a bet.
Goodwood - 2:25 pm
9/2 @ Bet365
Goodwood - 4:10 pm