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A Couple of close ones yesterday, with Live In The Moment and Platform Nineteen placing. On both occasions, I was getting slightly excited as they both looked like the winner, only for both to come up short. Today I've gone for three selections which are all juvenile races.
I might be going a little crazy with this selection, but either way, I do like to take a chance. In the opening race of day two of the York Ebor Festival my selection is…DREAMS OF THUNDER. Now, I know full well that this selection will not be everyone's cup of tea, and that's perfectly fine. However, if you are a follower of my tips, then I would heavily suggest reducing your stakes on this selection, as she is currently odds of 100/1.
It would be very easy to put up Sandrine in this race, and if I'm honest, I think she does win, but at 13/8, I'd rather take a punt at something bigger, which could potentially hit the frame and get some decent EW money. Based on the figures of previous winners of this race, Sandrine seems the easy pick, as she is already rated 109, and on average it takes a performance of 109.4 to win this race. She has already beaten a few of these in the past, and there is no chance of them reversing the form, in my opinion. Andrew Balding continues to be in hot form, and is definitely aiming for the trainers' championship, and David Probert is in red-hot form too. I could not put anyone off from backing Sandrine, and I am surprised she is not odds-on, as on the bare form, she just wins.
Every now and again I like to push the boat out when I see a big outsider at a big festival, and this one did catch the eye. Dreams Of Thunder is currently rated 74 after her first three career runs, which unsurprisingly makes her the lowest rated filly in the race. She would need to improve 35lbs on average to win this race, and I am fully aware that is near impossible. But, she could definitely outrun her huge odds, and potentially grab a place. To do so, she would need a couple of them to under perform, and she would need to improve at the same time.
My reasoning for her to be a small EW bet is as follows. I get the feeling that this filly is much better than what we've currently seen on the track, and I believe this because she was an expensive purchase at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale, going for 265,000 GNS, which was the 3rd most expensive sale of the day. She must've been showing something, as there is no way that connections would've got her wrong by that much. Cool Silk (owners), generally are spot-on when it comes to their 2yo's, in the past five years they've had a 17% SR. Also, what is interesting is the fact they're still going ahead with this Group 2 race, rather than exploit her lowish mark of 74, which if they think she is a Group horse, then she would easily rack up wins and potentially some big pots along the way, so the fact they're willing to put that in the bin is a positive in my eyes. Furthermore, she still has a Group 1 entry in the Cheveley Park in September, so I am convinced she is showing something at home. Robert Cowell is 1/3 with 2yo's at York, and is currently having a decent year with his juveniles.
The selection in this race is much shorter than I'd have hoped for, but I'm still going to play him, as I do think he has a strong chance. WINGS OF WAR fits the profile of a horse who normally lands this race, if you're a backer of trends, then this is one for you.
In the last 10 years, this race has been won by horses who have been 87 rated or higher, or hadn't ran enough races to claim their handicap mark:
2011 – Not rated (2 previous runs:85 & 93 RPR's)
2012 – 100 Rated
2013 – 95 Rated
2014 – 95 Rated
2015 – 109 Rated
2016 – 88 Rated (3 previous runs: 70, 71 & 84 RPR's)
2017 – 88 Rated (4 previous runs: 65, 79, 75 & 92 RPR's)
2018 – 87 Rated (5 previous runs: 72, 77, 75, 82 & 70 RPR's)
2019 – Not Rated (1 previous run: 87 RPR)
2020 – 92 Rated
Wings Of War currently doesn't have his handicap mark, as he has only ran twice. But, on his two runs to date his runs have produced RPR's of 80 and 87, and those numbers match up with previous winners of this race from the races before they won it (Unrated horses & the horses rated in the 80s). The previous runs show his level of ability and with natural progression between runs as a 2yo, he appears to be good enough to land this race.
I was impressed with his latest performance at Nottingham where he won very convincingly. He made all, which is a big positive for me, as from Day 1 of this festival, it appears that being prominent is an advantage, so the fact he has raced from the front before is a big tick in my books. Going back to his run lto, he put the race to bed very easily, and wasn't pushed out and wasn't asked for his maximum efforts, so there was probably another gear or two left. The form of that race has actually worked out quite well. The third recently won at Windsor, creating an impression he was a smart horse, winning by 3.5 lengths and producing an RPR of 91. Wings Of War firmly put him in his place, so it was encouraging to see him go and win so convincingly nto. His debut form is working out extremely well, as well. The winner has won a nursery since, but the horses in behind are definitely the ones who franked the form. Mr McCann has won twice, and has ran creditably in Class 1 races, and is rated 101. Maglev won his next race, and was beaten by a head at Chester in a Class 2, and is now rated 91.
This is obviously a competitive race, and there are plenty of enhanced places with multiple bookies, so if this isn't something you fancy, make sure you make use of those offers.
A horse who I am quietly confident of a big run from tomorrow is, MR MCCANN. It may appear that I am just following the form lines of the selection before, but I can assure you I am not, but I do think this lad could carry a big weight and run well.
As I previously stated, York has appeared to be a track which is favouring front runners, which was on show yesterday. Copper Knight, Royal Patronage and Tweet Tweet were all winners who raced from the front, and arguably stole the race. Mr McCann is a horse who does like to get on with things and bowl out in front, which is what I'm hoping will happen again. To win this off a mark of 101 would take some asking, but he is aided by 5lb claimer Pierre-Louis Jamin, who has hit a good bit of form recently, and had a winner in the closing race of Day 1 at York for Tom Dascombe, who is the trainer for this horse. Effectively, he is racing off 96, and a weight of 9st 2lbs, which is a big help, and will obviously make his life a lot easier. The majority of horses in this race are racing off 8st 5lbs or lower, and chances are they are well-handicapped, hence why they are here for a 36k prize to the winner. There were a few which caught my eye at the bottom of the weights, but I was still more confident of Mr McCann running his race, as he generally always does.
Mr McCann easily has the best form on offer, and that is the reason why he is the top rated horse in the race by a country mile. He was beaten by 2.25 lengths in a Group 2 at Newmarket, with the winner being Native Trail. Native Trail is arguably one of the top 2yo's for Godolphin this year, so the fact that he wasn't annihilated by him and the others, shows his class. The form of that race has worked out well. The second horse, Masekela, won a Listed Race on the weekend just gone, beating a nice horse called Bayside Boy. Dhabab was third, and he was favourite for the Coventry at Royal Ascot, and wasn't beaten far into 6th that day, so is clearly useful. Great Max back in fifth was 3rd at Royal Ascot the time before and was beaten by Point Lonsdale, who is Ballydoyle's #1 juvenile this year. Austrian Theory (6th) was then 3rd next time out in a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood. And, Mot And The Messer won nto beating Maglev at Chester in a Class 2. In Mr McCann's next race, he was beat by another Godolphin hotpot and Angel Bleu, who has since franked the form.
If I was pushed for a horse to run well at the bottom of the weights, I'd have gone for Bastogne, who seems to be weak in the market. He has form tied in with Aswan, and he is much shorter in the market, which doesn't make sense in terms of the price difference. His wide stall is a worry though.
15:50 Ffos Las - Race: 6
16:00 Epsom Downs - Race: 7