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A busy Friday's racing with seven cards scattered across England and Ireland, including the jumps and turf/AW racing, so there's plenty of options for everyone today.
MIRAMICHI has a series of 1's next to his form and at some point it will end, but I don't think it will end just yet. Tom Dascombe's 3yo gelding has been ultra-progressive this year, and has gone from being 64 rated to 85, and I believe he can possibly win one more time before the handicapper gets the grip of him.
There is a strong chance that he'll get an uncontested lead, which is something a lot of Dascombe's horses have done over the years at Haydock, normally under Richard Kingscote, but with their recent split, Jane Elliot has been getting a lot of chances, and she takes the ride. Haydock is seen to be a track which favours front runners, so I see this as a positive that they can set the pace which suits him, and the rest will have to play catch me if you can. Going back to the jockey, Jane Elliot has been in tremendous form this year, and that is due to the fact she has been given an opportunity to ride some better horses. She rode 8 winners last year at a 5% SR, whereas this year she has had 21 winners and is riding at a 13% SR, and she has rode this horse to all four of his wins, so clearly gets on well with the horse.
As for the form, I'd say it's pretty rock-solid. He beat a subsequent winner last time out, who won a Class 4 with ease and has been put up to a handicap mark of 90 from 83. As for the others in the field, Bake has been popular in the early market but he's not bred to stay this new trip, and his runs don't suggest it'll suit either. Camelot Tales was 4 lengths behind the horse Miramichi beat lto, so it's hard to envisage him getting the better of Miramichi if the collateral form works out how you'd expect. Fairmac is a consistent horse and was a previous winner for us on this page, and is more than likely going to be the main threat.
Not my strongest fancy that I've ever done, but I will be having a small play on INVINCIBLY in the penultimate race at Haydock as I think the drop back to 7f could give him a chance.
There are some big owners in this race including Shadwell, Godolphin and Juddmonte so you'd expect their horses to be at the top of the market all vying for favourtism. Out of those three, I think the Shadwell horse, Tadreeb has the best chance, and I think he has the strongest form of the three and will prefer this flat 7f than his stiff 8f that he race lto. However, I am backing the biggest priced horse in the field, and at the moment he's not a massive price, but I think he does offer value.
His most recent run can be overlooked as he was given a suicide ride by Paul Mulrennan who didn't try and settle the horse and just went off like the clappers, going 8 lengths clear and it was obvious that he was going to be caught. The runs before that there was some promise. The second at Redcar has produced some winners, with the 1st and 3rd both winning since. His run the time after at Nottingham over the extended mile was a decent run which has produced winners from the 1st and 5th as well as some good efforts from the 2nd and 3rd in their next races. On both occasions, Invincibly's effort petered out in the final furlong, so that is why I think the drop to 7f will be beneficial. Haydock is a flat track, so he might even find more improvement on this type of track as it doesn't have the same level of emphasis on your stamina.
He's had a recent wind-op, and gets the services of Tom Marquand which is a noticeable jockey booking for Karl Burke, who doesn't use Tom all that often.
It's a shame there's only 6 runners in the field, as it kind of kills the EW betting angle, so I will be having a small win bet.
12:00 Ayr - Race: 1
12:15 Cork - Race: 1
12:35 Ayr - Race: 2