Racing tips: McCain goes for gold with Gold Emery

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Monday was a decent day with both horses winning. There was rule 4's on both selections which reduced the profits slightly, but it wasn't a huge amount. 

As for the races, I can't exactly comment on how they won or raced. Carlisle was on the receiving end of some terrible fog which made 95% of the race not seeable, so you only really saw them jump 1 or 2 fences/hurdles at a maximum. Either way, both came out on top and that's all that matters.

Ayr 12:35

The second race of the card at Ayr looks a tricky one on paper, as you could give a chance to a fair amount in this. In my opinion, I couldn't have Charm Offensive as the favourite, he's way too short in the betting. He ran okay last time but the difference in odds between him and Dot Cotton is huge considering the latter horse travelled much better in the race and looked in need of the run.

For me, GOLD EMERY could progress past this lot and hopefully take this in good fashion. He's 1/1 over hurdles since moving to Donald McCain's stable from Colin Bowe's Irish yard. Colin is a well-respected trainer in Ireland, especially in the PTP field where he has trained many good horses before selling them for large sums of money. This horse wasn't bought for a stupid amount but he's clearly got some ability. He won 1/3 races when trained by Colin, winning on his final start. I think the form of his Hurdles debut rates as arguably the best form line in this race. I'm convinced the third horse (Heltenham) is well-handicapped over fences, though he finished second last time around (dodgy ride in my opinion). The 4th has since run well in many races, including grabbing a win and is currently rated 111 (ex 90 rated flat performer).

Gold Emery has a decent pedigree and is related to some smart types. He is a half-brother to both Cilaos Emery and Amalfi Doug. The former is trained by Willie Mullins and has won 9/23 including a Grade 1 and multiple G2/G3. The latter has come to the end of his career, but at the age of 12 he is still rated 115 over fences but when he was in his prime he was rated in the 130s and won a few Class 3s. Both of those horses stayed today's trip and in Amalfi's case, he stayed even further, which gives great optimism that today's trip will be fine, but he was a PTP winner over 3m, so that should prove he stays well.

He has to prove his fitness off 281 days but Donald is more than capable of getting one ready after a layoff, and he has the young Peter Kavanagh doing the steering, taking off a nice 5lbs in the process.

Ayr 2:10

This is a race I'd normally one to stay away from but I think you might find some value in the Lucinda Russell runner, ESPIRIT DU POTIER.

The two horses who have experience in bumper races don't exactly have the strongest of form so can be taken on. Obviously, that was the first race that both of them have had in their career so they're entitled to come on for the experience, but I didn't get a wow factor from either of them so I'll chance my arm on a newcomer.

Esprit Du Potier has a decent pedigree and one who will be better as he goes over obstacles, but his half-sister was a 80-rated flat performer and has recorded an RPR of 140 over hurdles in France. The other half-sister won on hurdles debut, winning by a distance and though she hasn't won since she has run consistently in defeat. There is bumper winners in the family further through the family tree.

Lucinda's yard seems in good spirit, recently landing a treble at Kelso on the Saturday just gone. Conner McCann is still an inexperienced jockey but has gotten a few winners from last season, but has the important 7lb claim which brings the horse's weight to 10st 7lbs. I wouldn't go crazy with the stakes on this selection but I think he could run a nice race.

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