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Telmesomething girl didn't jump the best yesterday, she was slow and ponderous over many and out to the right at a few. I thought she ran with plenty of credit, and might've needed the run, but I think her best days are behind her on that performance and the winner looks like a mare on the up. Favori De Champdou did little wrong, he was just simply outclassed and Dreaming Blue ran well as well, but I thought the ground was going to be drying out, but the times and the way the fields were strung out at Doncaster suggested the ground was softer than described, which is frustrating given I backed him on the back of expecting decent ground.
Newbury 1:15 – Our Follet 9/1 (1pt)
This could be a very stupid idea to be putting up Our Follet for this race given he put egg on my face at Carlisle just 13 days ago on chase debut where it was evidently a public schooling, but here we are.
This is a decent race for the grade, so it will be a decent statement for Our Follet to win this, but from the bottom weight and the fact we saw him just 13 days ago when connections clearly weren't bothered about winning, and just giving him a schooling session at Carlisle, I think this might be the time to catch him. Gavin Sheehan interestingly went up to Carlisle for the one ride that day on Our Follet, so I refuse to believe he was going up for what he did, but I get the feeling they might have said to Gavin to get a feel with him over fences as they are going to exploit a low mark in the near future, and here he turns up at Newbury off a 4lb lower mark.
I mentioned when I tipped him up on chase debut that he was repeatedly backed in as a juvenile hurdler like they believed he was a very nice horse, and he often burnt punters fingers, but he showed his ability when winning on his third attempt and doing it nicely in the process. He is the outsider of the field for this race, I do expect money to come in for him, if he is weak in the market then we've got no chance, but for that reason and only two places on offer, it's a straight win selection for me, as he'll either win or be pulled up again.
I do like Martator and I've tipped that horse up three times already this season, but I think she is vulnerable to an unexposed horse like we saw last time out.
Newbury 2:25 – Atlanta Brave 9/2 (2pt)
Going for a horse who is going to stay the trip is going to be needed, and you have proven stayers at the trip, but I've opted for the unexposed Atlanta Brave who I believe will stay this trip, and be an area National horse in the future.
He was a tip on the thread a couple of times last year during his novice hurdling season, and on every start I backed him and watched him run I thought that they seriously needed to step him up in trip, but they clearly wanted to keep that for when they went over fences. This horse is a really strong stayer and I think he'll get this trip with the minimum amount of fuss as I stated at the start I think he will stay 3m 6f with no problem as well. My main concern is his inexperience over fences as these types of races can be tough for young horses who don't have that experience, but to counter that he had plenty of runs over hurdles and has shown a good aptitude for this code and I think he is definitely on a very good mark of 121.
The form of his run at Exeter is mixed, but I think it looks better as you look deeper into it. The horses towards the fore haven't exactly boosted the form but the 4th finished 2nd nto, the 5th won the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day and Sheldon who was PU also won on Boxing Day at Wincanton. If you watch the race back it looked to me that Atlanta Brave needed to be stepped up in trip from the 3m at Exeter as he was doing his best running at the finish, so this step up to 3m 2f on a galloping track should be right up his street.
Haydock 1:25 – Collectors Item 7/4 (2pt)
It wouldn't be racing at Haydock if the ground wasn't described as heavy, swamps in places, would it? It has to be the wettest part of the country, as even during the summer flat season this track is soft or heavy at like 50% of the meetings. I live in the North West of England, and I can tell you that we've experienced some torrential rain and Haydock is going to be getting a fair bit more, so this meeting might not even go ahead even though there is no inspections scheduled, but if it is then I like Collectors Item for the marathon race over 3m 4.5f.
I've taken the same approach as the above race, and that's going for an unexposed horse who hasn't been tried over today's trip. It's always a gamble, but sometimes you get a strong feeling that they will stay the trip and that's what I got from this horse's last run at Sandown over 3m on soft ground where he looked outpaced, but after jumping the last he found a second wind and was motoring up the Sandown hill, and if there was another furlong in that race, I think he would've won that race, and all of that happened under 12st. He looks tailor-made for races like today, whether today's race is when he'll get his head in front, we're going to find out.
This is an interesting race as you have a horse at the top of the weights who definitely stays the trip, and you have a Venetia Williams horse at the bottom of the weights who will be carrying 9st 12lbs, so it has it all for it to be a great race. Collectors Item is carrying 11st 5lbs and has Richie McClernon on his back which is a good booking with Jonjo occupied at Newbury. Richie is a smooth rider and he'll give this horse every chance of staying this trip, even though I don't have doubts anyway. Jonjo has been doing very nicely this season with horses with this profile, and has been doing nicely with horses like this for a couple of seasons now with the likes of Monbeg Genius instantly coming to mind, and for this season you've got Inch House. I do think there is a couple of wins before the handicapper catches up to him now he's running over a suitable trip, and I think he is better than this field.
Newbury - 1:15 pm
9/1 @ Bet365
Newbury - 2:25 pm
9/2 @ Bet365
Haydock Park - 1:25 pm