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To see Southwell called off on Sunday was a surprise considering it is an ‘all-weather' track, but that goes to show how bad the weather has been over the last week. For my only selection of the day which ran in Ireland, he ran okay, and moved through to the lead before turning for home, but I think he lacks speed over 2m and will be suited for further.
Plumpton 2:15 – Midnight Mary 9/4 (1pt, Bet365)
Plumpton is expecting a shed load of rain overnight and in the morning so it's going to be a test out there, so having a strong stayer is going to be needed. Midnight Mary is the strongest stayer in this race, in my opinion, and her most recent run was a nice return to action.
She might've needed the run over today's C&D last time out, but I think she'd have preferred it if it was more of a stamina test as she was running on strongly at the finish and it looked to me that she was outpaced rather than needing the run, so the deteriorating ground will play to her strengths and I think that will be key to why she'll come out on top in this contest.
Lucy Wadham's 7yo mare stays slightly further than today's trip, as she was placed over hurdles when trained by Stuart Edmunds over 3m 3f on testing ground and she appeared to stay the 3m 5f at Fakenham in their Norfolk National, only weakening after the last fence, so the combination of soft ground at 3m 1f looks perfect. She was behind I See You Well and ahead of Tip Top Mountain. The former already had fitness on his side and the latter clearly needed the run, but his constant jumping out to the right is a major negative and I think he'll struggle in today's conditions in a better race to what he has done his winning in.
Plumpton 2:45 – Pretending 9/2 (1pt, Bet365)
I might be blinkered but I really do believe that Pretending is on such a low mark based on some of the pieces of form she showed last season in her juvenile year over hurdles.
I stuck her up on seasonal reappearance at Fakenham where she was under the cosh down the back straight, I thought she was starting to stay on again but then she made a mistake and fell. Lucy Wadham has come out and said she's been fine since the fall and that she has schooled very nicely since, so clearly it hasn't knocked her confidence. With that run under her belt, her fitness should be much sharper and she'll be a bigger danger to today's opposition.
This is her first time at 2m 4f, and though that raises new questions, she should be staying this trip as she stays 1m 6f on the flat, and with how the flat races are run at compared to jumps, she should have the stamina in the tank to be able to run over today's trip. The soft ground is another question as she has been kept to good and good to soft, but the trainer says she handles it, which I'm willing to trust as I highly doubt they'd run her on ground which isn't to her liking, especially after a fall.
Lucy is in good form with 3 winners from her last 10 runners and Harry Cobden is an eye-catching jockey booking, as he takes over from the injured Bryony Frost who normally rides a lot for Lucy.
- 2:15 pm
@ The Pools
- 2:45 pm