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Good day for Tuesday's action with two of the three selections winning. I was gutted not to land the clean sweep as I was expecting a big run by Lakeside Lad. That horse didn't jump which fluency at times, but was slowly getting into contention before being badly hampered and that put his race to bed.
This is a fairly average race for a Class 1 Listed race, but that could be a little harsh as they are all lightly raced fillies who are obviously going to improve this season. With that being said, I couldn't touch any of the horses at the top of the market based on what they've shown or is simply too short (Above The Curve). The one which I like is drawn in stall 1 and could potentially make the running and not see another horse. MOON DE VEGA could improve plenty this year, and this could be a nice starting point for this filly.
The draw bias at Chester is arguably one of the important factors compared to any other track in the country. Having a low stall number is a huge advantage due to the track being totally round and you're pretty much always running around a bend. The fact Moon De Vega is drawn in Stall 1 and the fact she has run from the front before is a positive in my eyes, and she is worth a small EW bet in this. She's not had a run so far this year, which is always going to be a concern, but they could've easily gone for a handicap off a mark of 80, so I get the impression she'll be spot on for this. Ralph had a runner in the 1000 Guineas who didn't have a prep run, and she managed to finish 2nd, so that's a good indicator of what to expect in terms of fitness.
The pedigree of this horse is eye catching, being by Lope De Vega out of a Azamour mare. That is a very nice pedigree and is a pedigree which suggests any juice in the ground will be an advantage. Chester is expecting quite a bit of rain from now (10pm on Tuesday) to the start of racing, and that could see the track go anywhere from good-to-soft to soft (if accurate). This horse has already won on soft before, so if the rain comes I'd expect this filly to shorten in price.
A very competitive 7f race but the chances for BROKEN SPEAR seem nice enough for me to back him at his current odds. I read the Betfair article which was composed by Daryl Carter today (does it most days in Tony Calvin's absence) and he mentioned how ratings are commonly misused. By that he meant how people say horses are “well handicapped” because they have dropped below their last winning mark etc, which is true and does get said a lot. He said the horse will be well treated and well handicapped off that current mark if today's conditions are suited and it's not just as simple as dropping to a certain mark. I totally agree with what he said, and I think this horse has those comments applied to him today. Off his current mark of 84 (79 with 5lb claimer) I think he is well handicapped based on today's conditions (track and potential ground, if the rain comes) and at the odds I think he is a worthy EW bet.
This horse won this race last year at odds of 25/1 under today's jockey, Kieran Schofield. He won this race off a mark of 85, so a pound heavier than this year, and he had similar conditions for this years race. He was drawn in 3 last year, drawn in 5 this year, so has a handy draw if breaking well. The ground was Good to Soft, which will hopefully be the ground for tomorrow (softer wouldn't be a problem either) and he likes this track. He's ran well so far this year when you consider he's been running over a mile, which is a trip which doesn't suit as it's a furlong too far for him, and his stamina doesn't quite last that distance, so the fact he finished 5th in the Lincoln which has produced some good form since, is a cracking run. The race after at Redcar has produced some good form as well, and he came with a chance in that, but his stamina folded in the final furlong. As for his latest run at Redcar, I think you can cross that off and give him another chance, as they are not robots and they do have off days.
12:00 Southwell - Race: 1
12:15 Bath - Race: 1
12:20 Punchestown - Race: 1