Racing tips: Irish traveller Aussie Girl is great value at Ayr on Friday

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To walk away with just a midge of profit on Thursday is criminal. Danny Tudhope, what were you thinking? Yet another best horse in the race hasn't won because of a poorly judged ride, which happens far too often on the flat. Auld Toon Loon should've won at Ayr yesterday, and I think he would've won it on the bridle by the way he travelled into the race, but Danny just couldn't find a gap for the best part of 3f. 

Ayr 2:15  – Queen's Guard 16/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)

Some of you might remember a couple of weeks ago I put up Queen's Guard for the Lowther Stakes Group 2 at York, she was a NR on the day and the race was eventually won by Relief Rally.

She was withdrawn from the race with a vet's certificate, which can mean anything, but I think they believed the ground was too fast for her. Ayr is going to be a real test on Friday, as they are going to get a least 5mm of rain, which should make the ground soft as it is already good to soft. Though Queen's Guard is unproven on the surface (to some extent) I think this is the type of ground she'll like. She has a decent knee action which would suggest she would prefer a slower surface, and she was coping well on soft ground over 6f on her debut before she got very tired entering the final furlong.

She was well-fancied on debut, which is normally a good indicator with the Clippers Group (owners) that they believe they have a smart one. I've seen it on plenty of occasions when their horse is backed in on debut, doesn't win, but then goes on to win in good style the time after at decent odds, before running well in Class 1 races. I firmly believed that she was going to run a big race at huge odds last time at York, so I'm definitely sticking with her for today's race, which is a decent race with some good form lines from the horses taking their place in this race.

Ayr 2:50 – Aussie Girl 6/1 (1pt EW Bet365 4pl)

This race hasn't been great to favourites since its inaugural running of 2018 with the only favourite to win it was in last year's renewal. There have been many good favourites beaten in this race, so it's not a race I'd want to get stuck into too much. However, I think with Fillies at this level, ratings can go out of the window and you can go for an improver. Aussie Girl has done nothing but improve this year, winning and running very well in handicaps in Ireland and since she has made the move into Class 1 races, she has been just as good, without getting a win.

This filly enjoys soft ground, does stay slightly further than the 5.5f trip today and I think she has some of the best form in the race. J A Stack doesn't send many over to the UK, and though his record isn't inspiring with just 2 winners, I don't think you can read into that too much as his horses do often run well even when they don't win. I think Aussie Girl has a cracking chance in this race, she ran a belter at Naas last time out when finishing 2nd to my tip, ocean Quest. I think She was on the wrong side of the track that day, but she won the race on her side, and that's normally a very good indicator that they will be winning races soon.

I don't think the UK contingency is anything special, and I don't think connections will be sending their filly over for a day out.

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