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To walk away with just a midge of profit on Thursday is criminal. Danny Tudhope, what were you thinking? Yet another best horse in the race hasn't won because of a poorly judged ride, which happens far too often on the flat. Auld Toon Loon should've won at Ayr yesterday, and I think he would've won it on the bridle by the way he travelled into the race, but Danny just couldn't find a gap for the best part of 3f.
Ayr 2:15 – Queen's Guard 16/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)
Some of you might remember a couple of weeks ago I put up Queen's Guard for the Lowther Stakes Group 2 at York, she was a NR on the day and the race was eventually won by Relief Rally.
She was withdrawn from the race with a vet's certificate, which can mean anything, but I think they believed the ground was too fast for her. Ayr is going to be a real test on Friday, as they are going to get a least 5mm of rain, which should make the ground soft as it is already good to soft. Though Queen's Guard is unproven on the surface (to some extent) I think this is the type of ground she'll like. She has a decent knee action which would suggest she would prefer a slower surface, and she was coping well on soft ground over 6f on her debut before she got very tired entering the final furlong.
She was well-fancied on debut, which is normally a good indicator with the Clippers Group (owners) that they believe they have a smart one. I've seen it on plenty of occasions when their horse is backed in on debut, doesn't win, but then goes on to win in good style the time after at decent odds, before running well in Class 1 races. I firmly believed that she was going to run a big race at huge odds last time at York, so I'm definitely sticking with her for today's race, which is a decent race with some good form lines from the horses taking their place in this race.
Ayr 2:50 – Aussie Girl 6/1 (1pt EW Bet365 4pl)
This race hasn't been great to favourites since its inaugural running of 2018 with the only favourite to win it was in last year's renewal. There have been many good favourites beaten in this race, so it's not a race I'd want to get stuck into too much. However, I think with Fillies at this level, ratings can go out of the window and you can go for an improver. Aussie Girl has done nothing but improve this year, winning and running very well in handicaps in Ireland and since she has made the move into Class 1 races, she has been just as good, without getting a win.
This filly enjoys soft ground, does stay slightly further than the 5.5f trip today and I think she has some of the best form in the race. J A Stack doesn't send many over to the UK, and though his record isn't inspiring with just 2 winners, I don't think you can read into that too much as his horses do often run well even when they don't win. I think Aussie Girl has a cracking chance in this race, she ran a belter at Naas last time out when finishing 2nd to my tip, ocean Quest. I think She was on the wrong side of the track that day, but she won the race on her side, and that's normally a very good indicator that they will be winning races soon.
I don't think the UK contingency is anything special, and I don't think connections will be sending their filly over for a day out.
Ayr : 1:45 – media shooter 9/2
Gambling is just another tax on your wages ?
Yaajooz 4.40 kempton @ 35s ew extra top 6
GL
Sneaked in 6th
Great shout gatey ✔️
?
Totally agree terrible ride
Saint cloud ??
1-50 caliyza
11-4 bet365.
3 of these finished close up to each other last time out, this one could improve past those 3. from top frog yard (graffard)
3-00 dilawar
7-1 win
6-4 top 3 finish bet365
20-80 stake
A year ago this would be the favourite here, not ran since November and since changed yards which suggests he might be on the downgrade !!
Ran with credit in several group races in last 3 years and if fit must be in the mix
walk in clover 2-00 Newton abbot 9-4 bet365.
The other horse was better over hurdles but had yet to jump over the big sticks.
?????????????
Agador 5-02 Toulouse ?? 2-1 .. NAP..?
Ran up a sequence of 4 wins before being a beaten favourite in a class 1, back down to class 2 today, from a decent yard (Rouget)
Chantilly rose 3-10 newton abbot
12-1 ew 2 places 1/4 odds.
Has to beat one of the 2 favourites most likely, claimers 5 pound means he has nearly a stone off his stablemate presenting nelly and more off the favourite manimole.
Chantilly rose also has relations with form on heavy ground which could come into play
not just rizzle with traffic problems, honour your dreams met plenty, not an issue but absolutely sick i began the day heavily focused on roger fell, he banged in 2 outta 3 and wi went in another direction all together. not going to force the ”tips” out, no real look today, chancing a few in the calvary charge albeit i am taking big liberties. good luck.
1525 ayr – Catch Cunningham 28/1 (owner/trainer/jockey 2nd last year at 40s), Sir Maxi 22/1 (punt) , Trabajo Detecho 22/1 (roger fell band wagon i missed yday), Ghathanfar 20/1 (a lot to take on trust)
I Know what you mean database,
I backed catch Cunningham a few days ago in a class 5, ran like a pig and finished last of 11.
Today runs in a class 2 stampede and will no doubt be Lazarus like and win ?
I fancied sir maxi too at the bottom of the weights but he ran shit here yesterday.
I’ll go for Jordan electrics 20-1 ew 6 places ???????
luckily for us racing isn’t a very logical sport, frustrating i still ignore my instincts which often point me towards good things i go on to overlook based on paper form. good to see you still plugging on, did enjoy the ‘elvis has a gambling problem saga’. anyway i’ve transitioned, the name is robyn, do not be insensitive ;)
as for jordan electrics, i went through each runner, my notes were, given he has done best over 5f, and has front running jockey on board in joe fanning… i suspected he would be up there pushing the pace for one of goldie’s other runners, he also carries a penalty. fahey said sir maxi missed the break and jockey didnt try him.
o’meara is obv the master of these races, i swear he had a 1-2 yday as well, he must make a bomb the forecasts.
as for 3 of my 4, we got 4th 5th and 6th, all placing, so happy with that, did like the winner, a 7f horse which always seems to be something to look for but could be worse.
Or 3,4,5,6 between us both Robyn ?
Not bad given the field Size.
150% ROI from 4 horses priced bigger than 20/1, had worse days, good shout from you as well.
bauhinia 12.40
roman secret 1.15 ew
ballerina boxer 1.35 ew well done all winners yesterday
caliyza 1.50 France
the big chap 2.05 nb
purosangue 2.15 nap
3.25 Ayr
Trabejo Detecho
22/1
Small E/W bet
?
presenting yeats 2.35
2:50 Ayr perdika 20/1 ??
3:00 Saint Cloud- donner earl 8/1
Spewing up dog shit ?
Pol roger 4.00a 8-1☘️☘️gl all
My last attempt to claw back the day ?
Las cuatro – 10/1 e/w my spidey sense is tingling with this one !
8:15 kempton that is ?
And dark street 8:30 Dundalk 15/2 ?
got my fingers crossed for u dazzman, would hate to think of you chasing losses later at belmont and woodbine, if you blow it there i guess there’s alway Pune in the morning ?
Don’t forget Hyderabad as well ??
bungle bay for me dazzman
bol
going with dark street
hopefully won’t jinx it
bol
Agadar Nap win 2-1
Dilawar won 7-1 though 80% of the bet was on the 6-4 place outcome and Jordans electrics placed 20s.
Other 3 filed under ?.
Well done winners today and dazzman take heed of Robyn’s wise words
Switch off your laptop, regroup and focus on tomorrow’s Saturday carnage.
There is no such thing as recouping losses, if you think like that you are heading for cardboard city and a life of going through the bins behind Tesco and looking for fag butts.
Take each “affordable” bet as it says in the tin.
I’d it loses so be it, that bet is finished.
Next bet should have nowt to do with that losing bet
If you chase losses it’s not affordable.
Sermon over ✝️
Better off chasing women instead hey ?
cheers dazzman
start tomorrow with another number 9
first race ayr
Nice to finish the day with a 15/2 winner
Hooker tokens ?????