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Saturday's racing is one of the best days of racing in recent months in my opinion, with many Class 1's and big handicaps. Hopefully you can pick out a few winners.
Haydock 12:40
To see Defuture Is Bright as the favourite in the early stages of the market isn't really a surprise, but I don't think he is the most likeliest winner. I've watched his most recent race back, and even though it was a good effort, I don't think you could be confident in him staying this longer trip today. He looked a tired horse last time at Cheltenham over 2f shorter, and even though you could argue that this track is flatter and won't take as much to get, he finished 2nd over this trip at the course, and he got outstayed in the final furlong, so I'm not quite sure he'll stay. Don't get me wrong, I think he will be travelling one of the best throughout the race, but his finishing effort might not be as strong as others, and one who I think will be staying on is FURIUS DE CIERGUES. This horse raced in the same race as Defuture Is Bright, but finished around 13 lengths ahead, and even though there is a swing in the weights between the two, I'd rather side with the fact he looked like a true stayer.
The selection gets into this race right at the bottom of the weights, and races off a minimum weight of 10st, before you take away any apprentice claims that Defuture Is Bright has, who would then be classed as bottom weight. Even though this race in recent years has been dominated by horses who have carried top weight or close to top weight, I can't get away from the chances that this horse has. The ground should be spot on for him, he races off a low weight and he should relish this trip. His only effort over this distance resulted in a win, and his previous efforts over slightly shorter have been consistent in defeat, but that probably proves that he wanted further.
At the odds I think he offers great value. Fingers crossed on a nice round of jumping, and if that's the case then he should be fighting for the win.
Haydock 1:15
A small EW bet will be placed on LIGNOU, who makes his stable debut for Jannie Candlish. He has not been seen since moving from Noel Meade's yard, and hasn't raced in 166 days, which is a slight concern in terms of his fitness. However, he has got bits and pieces of form from when he was in Ireland, that is decent. Today's conditions appear to be suited well for this lad, as both of his wins came over 2m 3.5f and 2m 4f on good ground, which is something which is relatively close to today's conditions. His win in April has worked out well. The runner-up, Hewick, has improved from a 111 rated from when they met, to an 130 rated hurdler, and is now a 140 rated over fences, with his most recent run recording an RPR of 155. Further behind the selection that day was a Willie Mullins horse who has since won two chases and looks a good prospect over fences.
I feel like you will need to be relatively well handicapped to win this race, and none of them really scream out to me, other than maybe Our Surprise & Mackenberg, with the latter probably having a stronger chance. They are closely matched from their last race, but the McCain horse should be race fit today, but I feel like the odds which are on offer for Lignou, and the fact a stable switch could bring out improvement, he is worth a small EW play. There is always a chance that he'll need the run, but you don't need to go overboard with the money you back him with. A mark of 132 could be low for a horse who was previously owned by Gigginstown and was bought for 120k a few years back. He is still a 6yo, so has time for improvement, and Jennie Candlish is a very underrated trainer.
Haydock 2:25
Emmet Mullins is one of the most shrewdest trainers around, so the fact he's brought his horse over for this contest is a big statement in my opinion. He doesn't send many horses to Britain, so when he does, it should always be given a second look. RIGHTPLACERIGHTIME has been well found in the market, and it's no surprise really, as punters will latch on to his runners and the bookies will price them up as as short price, as they are worried of getting their panned by the punters.
He's no mug is Emmet, and his horse gets in the race right at the bottom of the weights with him carrying 10st 2lbs, but then he has opted for the services of in form apprentice rider, Harry Kimber, who takes off another 7lbs, so effectively he is running off 9st 9lbs, which is a ridiculous low weight. He must believe that this horse is extremely well handicapped, and he clearly believes he's found a nice opportunity to land a nice prize, which this is (£56,950).
This horse is still unexposed, especially now he is trained by Emmet. Emmet obtained this horse from Kevin F O'Donnell, and since then he has raced 3x and has been sent off favourite on all three occasions. He recently won last time out over fences (has had all 3 races for Emmet over fences) and he did it with ease. He clearly appreciated the step up to 3m, but now he has to prove he can do it over the small obstacles. What I find very interesting is that connections are willing to come to Britain in a Class 1 race on an inflated handicap mark, than rack up a series of wins in Ireland. His Irish handicap mark is 108, yet he races in this race today off a mark of 125. That fact alone gives me all the confidence I need that they believe this horse is that much well in.
Haydock 3:00
Another small EW bet will be placed on CHATHAM STREET LAD, who will be the joint lowest rated horse in this race, and on paper should have little to no chance in this. However, even though A Plus Tard and Bristol De Mai will be popular in the market, the rest of the field isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, and at the very least, the selection should be heavily considered for a place.
A Plus Tard is the deservedly correct market favourite, and no one can really argue against that point, as he is the highest rated horse in the race, and proved last year that he is a serious staying chaser for the next couple of seasons. However, like we've seen from Henry De Bromhead's horses this season, they appear to be needing their first runs of the season. This is a big race, so you'd expect his horse to be spot on for this, but there would be a slight doubt of mine that Minella Indo and others have needed their first run, and a similar thing could be in store for A Plus Tard. Bristol De Mai will be 100% ready for this race today. This is his Gold cup, and he will give everything to win it again for a fourth time, but the slight concern if you're backing him has to be the ground. He handles this surface, but he is best effective on bottomless ground, which he should not be getting unless the heavens open and the weather forecasts are totally wrong.
Which leaves me thinking Chatham Street Lad is the next best choice. He has already had a run this season, so should be race fit. He stays 3m, so even though it's a gamble that he'll stay this slightly further trip, there are strong possibilities that he will. The trainer was confident that a quicker surface would in fact suit, and he said this when he ran in the Marsh chase at Cheltenham where he ran a belter, and the form has worked out extremely well. Runner-up Fusil Raffles won the Charlie Hall. Shan Blue back in 5th would have won the Charlie Hall by a landslide if he didn't fall, but looks like a proper staying chaser who will be contesting in all the big contests in the Spring. Back in 3rd was Asterion Forlonge who has since a decent pot at Punchestown when carrying a heavy weight in a handicap.
He is currently sitting at around 40/1 and that seems big enough to have a small ew bet on. As for the others which I haven't mentioned, Waiting Patiently isn't the horse everyone hoped he would be, and that's down to the amount of injuries he's had. He's changed yards, but I don't think he's the same horse he once looked. Royale Pagaille was impressive when winning a Class 1 Handicap, but that might be what he is, a very good horse at carrying top weight in a handicap, but can't bridge the gap into Grade 1 company. Imperial Aura is an interesting runner, and is unexposed at this trip, but his odds are much shorter than ideal. Next Destination is also interesting based on his form with Galvin, but he also is short odds and can be passed.
Ascot 2:05
With the amount of pace on offer and the good ground, I think this could be set up for LOSTINTRANSLATION, who returns to the track with his yard in great form.
This horse was touted to be a Gold Cup horse, but for whatever reason it didn't quite click after he beat Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in 2019. Around the same time Colin's form dropped off big time, and it's only just recently started to pick up again, and I think that's down to Joe Tizzard being the main trainer now, and Colin is the trainer in name only, until the end of this season. The yard is absolutely flying, and his horses have been running extremely well when fresh, so the time away from the track won't be an issue for me.
I think it's an interesting tactic to drop him back in trip, as he has been campaigned as a stayer since winning that race at Haydock, and even though he does stay 3m+, I think he still does have the speed for this shorter distance. He should be fine on the ground, as his best form has come on good-to-soft, so even though this is quicker, it appears he handles it better than most.
There is a lot of pace projected in this race, with many horses liking to get on with things, so if they decide to take each other on for the lead and set a frantic pace, that should be suited to this horse, who stays further, and has the stamina for longer. Joe Tizzard believes he is still the same horse of old, and has been schooling very well, and he's excited for his run in this race.
Ascot 2:40
MOLLYS OLLYS WISHES comes into this race as the underdog, and you'd have to say rightly so, but I was very taken by her most recent run at Wetherby, and I think she can run a big race in this grade against the boys.
Buzz is the market favourite, and you can see why. He was progressive last season, and won the Newmarket Cesarewitch 42 days ago, so is still in good form. He is much shorter in the market than I was expecting, and now he's going up in trip on ground which isn't exactly ideal for him, I think he can be taken on.
Goshen is a live-wire to say the least, and still needs to brush up on his jumping, but if he handles the ground then he could be a big player. Gary Moore seems to think he'll need the run, and until he proves he can race economically, I will not be backing him.
Song For Someone won this last year, but is also another horse who will like it softer than today's conditions. He's a decent horse on his day, but not exactly a world beater, and can definitely be opposed.
Which leaves the selection, who won eased down in a mares race last time at Wetherby. That wasn't a seriously strong race, but she put it to be in the a matter of strides when Harry took the lead up on the final bend. I think that was a big performance over a trip which I'm sure is too short, so this longer trip should be up her street. Whether she is good enough in this grade, we'll have to see.
2-40 ascot
Olly Molly’s wishes
15-8 top 2 finish main bet
7-2 (betting without buzz) smaller bet
Done write up on other thread.
Buzz 1st and Molly 2nd would do nicely.
E/w extra theif ! 🤣that tickled me
2-05 Ascot master tommytucker.
7-1 each way
7-4 top 2 finish.
2 Nicholls horses that could beat the favourites in their races at Ascot
12-20 flementide 7-4.
12-55 Jeremy pass 13-8
2 singles and double.
———————————-
Auteuil 🇫🇷
1-33 futsala 7-4 top 2 finish.
2-15 galopin de balme 5-1 top 3 finish.
Flementide wins at 100-30 😁
Double landed 100-30 and 4-5
Master tommytucker 2nd😁.
Galopin de balme wins 😁
Wish I’d gone ew on that one 🇫🇷
12:35 – Lingfield – under the boardwalk 8/1 e/w
🎅
2:05 Ascot- Going to go with my old mate dashel drasher won some nice money with this one in the past hopefully can tease a little bit more out
With ya on that looks good
Could be a drifter 🎶
12-35 lingfield aye dazzman.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EPEqRMVnZNU
When it’s not a clear cut winner that’s what you want to be watching and betting on makes for a exciting days racing . Will be all miserable later when everything loses mind you haha best of luck to everyone
Yankee and 2x singles
Gulfstream -R5…Rapturous 13/8 (****)
Aqua-R7…Skim 10/3(*** ex uk and finding his feet well now)
Del Mar-R5…Town Boy(***** 9/4 close and on only 4th start any improvement get him his win)
Gulfstream -R8…Naughty Shirley. 9/4
Pity Rapturous crumbled first up but that’ll do nóicely! 🎲
Late Late show LIVE from…(after 12 anyway!)
Small stakes Trixie I looked out to be placed IF Town Boy won and he did that.
Golden Gates-R6….Miss Glorious EVS
Woodbine-R5…Spegetinmtzballs 2/1
R6…Northern Conquest 11/2
GL if ye bother.
Onwards to tomorrow it looks a good day! 🐎 ⚽️
2x singles and a double right off the bat n tracker for tomorrow,well I ditched Buzz but that was daft.
Buzz..2.40. 6/5(*****)
A Plus Tard..3.00. 13/8(****
Double pays 4.5/1(**) Paddy Power
GL as always
I quite like that one might push my luck with a treble adding deploy the getaway 13/8 13:38 Gowran park
I was looking at Strictly Dancer ThePlug tipped last week. Any thoughts mate?
Quite a quick turn out that is it not?
It’s hooves must be itching to go at home.
Was going to ask Busstop if he backed Oor auld mate Kapga De Lily yesterday at 15/2?
I just caught it before the off in shop with £2.40 change when I seen it myself but win nicely.
Busstops been posted missing AGAIN but!? :/
One for the last race of the day
Wolverhampton 8:00 – Dajarus – 6/1 😀
Ascot…8.45…Valour Road 33/1. Ew(**. Backed this a few weeks ago and was a good 2nd but is out today in same grade against a 1/2 favourite? Don’t know much about grades in Australia so it’s $1.50 Ew as the right up gives it a chance,only negative is wide draw?)
Didn’t realise how close that was to the off in Oz.
6th or 7th anyway
🇦🇺 Ascot Bright Diamond…9.15 2/1(**)
*9.20
Add …
God Has Chosen…Ascot -R10
Zabanca…Towoomba -R8 4/1 for 75p Trixie and interest before ‘ The Opening Show’
Haydock 1315 Thibault 14/1 EW
Haydock 1500 Bristol De Mai 3/1 Money back with sky if second or third up to £10.
🤩 12.35 Lingfield
🇫🇷 1-4 in a R/forecast
Placenet – Margarets Legacy…11.20(**)
Backed ML a few times as it’s clearly a good horse but keeps coming up against likes of today’s fav.
Forms 223 lately and has been 2nd to Placenet
Indigo De Issards…12.58. 7/4(***)
BONKERS BET.
Small stakes
Salamanca bay 1-38 gowran park
Each way extra
30-1 for 10 places main bet
100-1 for 6 places smaller bet.
Well done Elvis, had a little saver on yours to finish in first 6@ 90s thanks
Cheers 👍
Morning all. Well done to all the winners yesterday. I agree with Rizz on Chatham Street lad but with one being pulled from the race, only paying 2 places, although ew extra paying 4 places at 16s, which will at least double your money.
Nothing jumping off the page today so I’m gonna go with a couple of massive prices ew extra.
Scarpeta 12.00 Gowran. 250/1 or 22s for 9 places
Rightful Mind 1.38 Gowran 200/1 or 25s for 10 places
Don’t like going against of people’s selection s but picked it out earlier, so sorry elvis😁
GL with all your bets today
Rubbish today 😒
Would love to see lostintranslation bounce back today. The horse was top class in 2019-20 when it ran a cracker to be 3rd in the Gold Cup. Now that the tizzards are back in form, let’s hope this horse can get back to something like it’s best.
Silva eclipse 12.40 heart of a lion 2.33 well done all winners yesterday
low lie the fields 12.00 ew
Bob Mahler 12-40 Haydock 18/1 ew
Dark Voyager 2-13 Gowran 5/2 Nap
Dark Voyager never a Nap. That was a shocker
Recoba
i wont be backing strictlyadancer today he is gone up another 7lbs makes life a lot harder but he could very well win again , i wouldn’t put you off backing it best of luck if you do . but at the prices i wont be backing it .
Hi
Win
R. 6 – Imphal / Hunting…
R. 5 – Buzz / Ascot
Each Way
R. 5 – Bass Rock / Hayd…
R. 7 – Accrington Stanley / Lingf…
R. 7 – Branston Pikkle / Hunt…
To be Placed
R. 8 – Always Dreaming / Lingf…
BOL & Nice Weekend !!
Went in again with Buzz and A Plus Tard and bit of bravery IF you can call it that pays off handsomely.
Trixie On….
Imphal (bit to close to off,apologies)
Before Midnight(****)
Strictly Dancer
GL
Yahtzee!! 🎲 🐎🇬🇧
Ki$$ my grits le bookies! 😋
Off to the USA and only one from my tracker so one single at the moment..
Del Mar -R6…Adare Manor 6/4 Skybet boost(**** anything like his last run will suffice in similar company)
Off to hunt out the rest 🇺🇸
Nice 1
Well done the winners winners today.
Hopefully more later! 🍀 🇺🇸🤞
Aquaduct-R5…Cost Basis EVS with boost or 5/6 (Ortiz Jnr on board the best horse here should win?)
R9…Serve The King 5/2 (**** showed up really well in a G1 last time and drops in class,tough race but he’s the pick!)
Woodbine – R5…Fascination. 2/1
Del Mar -R6…Adare Amnor(***** as above ⬆️)
GL all
Been shouted a tip for Churchill Downs R8..Sun Path but no odds up for me yet. and Bet365 go 11/10 in a race with a lot of quality.
See how rest go first.
GL
he’s our star 5.00 amount of 2nd on this horse probs finish 3rd now I’ve backed it
Second again 😂
2 up n 1 down in Yankee with a single up.
the last is 11pm so going to back this Sun Path ive been given. 👆
It’s out to 15/8 LiveScore Bet(*** Geroux on board for Brad Cox but as I said tough race)