The May Bank Holiday card sees horse racing at Bath, Beverely, Kmepton, Warwick and Windsor but it's the former that catches the eye as we try to get the week off to a winning start.
TANQEEB is my selection, and if he settles better today then he must have a great chance.
I would recommend watching his race last time, as he was keen throughout and did not get any cover, but still ran on strongly to finish third. Since then, the runner-up has won since, which is always a nice boost.
Though his pedigree suggests he should not be running over this far, I think the extra distance will suit. He won over 1m 2f at this track last year, and it looked like he needed every yard over that trip. He was struggling to keep up and was pushed along from over 4f out, but he stayed on strongly, so the extra 1.5f should help his chances. He is only 2lb heavier than that win last September, and both Ian Williams and Franny Norton are in tremendous form, operating at 31% & 22% in the last fortnight.
I put up COMMONSENSICAL last year, as he had some very nice form amongst a lot of classy 2yo’s, but for one reason or another he did not show his potential.
This year, he has had one run, and he won it nicely at Pontefract. I have watched the race back, and he looked in need of the run, as to my eye he probably was carrying a little excess weight, so for him to win as nicely as he did is a good showing, as I think he will have come on for that run.
At Pontefract, it looked like he was a thorough stayer over a mile, and any extra distance could be ideal, so I think it is interesting that Tom Dascombe has made the decision to put him up in trip. His dam, Critical Path, stayed 1m 2f – 4f, which gives me strong hope that this trip will be his optimal. He has been raised 5lbs for his recent win, so he will need to improve again, but if he produces the same form where he finished behind Fancy Man last year (now rated 106), he could be hard to beat.
THEGREYVTRAIN could make it two wins in quick succession, after winning last week at Windsor, where she beat today’s rival, Katherine Place.
She has gone up 5lbs for that win, but apprentice Tyler Heard negates that weight, so in theory she is running off the same mark as last time. I can see how people would think that Katherine Place could reverse the form, as it looked like she was struggling for room on the rail, but to my eye, it would not have made a difference as Thegreyvtrain won by a convincing margin, and I also think there was enough room for Katherine Place to get through.
Bath is a track where if you can get to the lead, it is possible to steal the race from the front. Thegreyvtrain only has one way of running, and that is to run from the front. There is no real threat for the pace, so hopefully she manages to get an easy lead and dictate the race the way she wants it. She is evidently in good form, winning two times from her last three runs, and though she has only won at this track once, she has been placed eight times.