Racing tips: Heltenham to boost the Skelton strike rate at Southwell

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The form on the page has been a bit in and out recently by me over the past week or so, so to land 2/2 on Monday to kick the week off in the correct way was a big help. 

Both horses were short prices but proven to be value as they won with plenty in hand and both went off at a shorter price than when put up.

Southwell 12:35

If the forecast rain does arrive at Southwell I think you'll get a fair amount of non-runners, which is a shame but the ground was described as ‘good' on Monday, but they are expecting a fair amount of rain, which should change the ground to have some kind of ‘soft' in the description.

For me, I think HELTENHAM is the horse who could be ahead of his mark and with the recent run under his belt, as well as experience over fences I think he could be tough to beat.

He made a good debut over fences at Stratford around a month ago when finishing behind a decent-looking type from the Seamus Mullins yard. It was evident that Heltenham needed the run, as his gas tank emptied fairly quickly, but Harry Skelton wasn't too harsh on him and let him complete in his own time, which still saw him finish second. He jumped well for the most part, apart from some sticky jumping at the start, but for a chase debut, I thought it went well.

Southwell is a track that the Skeltons do well at, especially over fences. Dan has racked up a 41% SR in the last five years over fences, 17 wins from 41 runners, with Harry bettering that with a 45% SR. These fences are a fair bit easier than the ones at Stratford, and that should help a horse like Heltenham who is still inexperienced over fences.

The ground won't be an issue if it turns to soft as he has soft form in bumpers in France and ran well enough on heavy earlier this year at Carlisle in a hurdles race.

Sedgefield 1:55

I am always wary when backing a horse which has a Micky Hammond runner in it, as he is one of those crafty trainers who will land a decent gamble a fair few times throughout the season. Bandit D'Ainay is his runner in this, and after each run in England he is becoming more and more well-handicapped from his French form, and surely it's a matter of time before that mark of 86 turns to a win. I'm hoping today isn't the day, as the odds available for that horse aren't crazy good, so it wouldn't be worth their time for the gamble.

I'm siding with the form horse, BUDARRI, trained by Stuart Coltherd and ridden by his son Sam. Budarri arrives to Sedgefield with a recent win from Musselburgh, winning in good style. That win has resulted in his handicap mark going up 6lbs, which might raise a few eyebrows, but he is still on a good mark on previous form. He managed to win off 95 in 2019 and then followed it up on his next run off 99, so based on that he surely has a great chance today. He is a 9yo, so there's still life in his career yet, and I doubt he won't be able to go close off a mark of 81 today, especially based on that recent run which showed his old jumping ability.

The ground shouldn't be an issue, and running off 10st 9lbs should give him a fighting chance against the other in-form horse, Sabbathical, but that horse has to carry 12st 7lbs. He won recently off a high weight, but he's against an in-form horse of Budarri and that should be tough.

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