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Yesterday's selections were disappointing, but also baffling. Two of three ran well below par, and they ran so bad, they must've had an issue of some sort as they were never at the races. These things happen in racing, and that's why it's a difficult game. Finger's crossed on a better run from today's sole selection.
Today's racing looks hard to dissect with either horses who are odds-on, or races which are competitive. This race is a cracking race, and the odds on offer for LITTERALE CI make her a bet in this race.
Harry Fry won this race last year, and even though his form so far this season hasn't really kick-started, this horse has been running well in defeat, and he has a very good record at this track (28% SR). Litterale Ci ran two blinders when sent to Galway for their summer festival. She ran on the flat early in the week, finishing 3rd, and then ran four days later in a very competitive handicap hurdle where she also finished 3rd. The run over hurdles was her first attempt at this trip, and she definitely appeared to have the stamina on a testing track like Galway, so she should have no problems on a track like Uttoxeter. The form of the hurdle race has been franked on many occasions, and seems like a rock-solid piece of form. Four horses won next time and two more wins came from horses in their second run after.
Her latest run wasn't as bad as it might seem, even though she was beaten by 10 lengths. The horse was well-handicapped on old pieces of form, was receiving 8lbs from the selection, and Phillip Hobbs' yard has been flying at the start of this season. I think she ran to form, and the handicapper thought the same, as her mark remained unaltered. Also, she had two quick runs at Galway the time before so she might not have fully recovered from those races, which was her target all summer long, as she has been targeted at that festival in the past. She has not been seen for 55 days, and that is a good sign, as she has won from similar breaks before, so her batteries should be charged. She has previously won off 60, 69, 67 day breaks, which shows this is the right time to catch her.
For the opposition:
- Jarveys Plate looks handicapped to the point where he probably needs to come down a pound or two, and has to carry top weight of 11st 12lbs.
- Bannixtown Glory has never won when fresh so might need the run, and the fact that Brian Hughes doesn't ride echos that point.
- Ofallthejinjoints needs to bounce back to form, massively. Tizzard's yard has been in horrible form for the past couple of seasons, and he is 1/43 with hurdlers so far this season.
- Trimcomalee & Thunderstruck are seen to be the main threats, in my opinion. Both look progressive, but the latter goes up in class and the former might need the run, and the form of recent runs hasn't exactly worked out.