This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Cheltenham was a disaster across all three days, with some very poor selections from me. Hopefully, Monday will point us into a better direction and get us some winners.
Exeter 1:50 – Moorland Rambler 7/1 (0.5pt EW, Bet365/PaddyPower)
If you were to read the form of this race you'd be instantly drawn to King Turgeon, which wouldn't be a surprise given he finished 2nd on his seasonal reappearance to a well-handicapped Venetia Williams horse. However, he seems to run best when fresh as he won first time out last season and ran well on his first start this season, but that came on heavy ground at Chepstow just twelve days ago, and when it's heavy at Chepstow, it's normally very heavy so I get the feeling he might bounce. David Pipe has another runner in this race, Behind The Curtain. I'm not sure if Jack Tudor gets the decision on the pick of the rides as he is the stable jockey but he is on this horse who is making his stable debut and first run in 1096 days, yes that is three years and I've not typed it wrong. If the money was strong on this one, you'd have to be concerned, but based on that time away from the track, it'll be some training performance to get him to win. If the favourite doesn't back up his fine run from last time out my idea of the main danger would've been Leissieres Express who made a nice chase debut at Wincanton over 2m 4f last time out. I have a sneaky feeling he wont stay 3m at Exeter as he looks to have a bit of pace about him and such a smooth traveller doesn't look like a horse who needs the step up in trip and grade.
I landed on Moorland Rambler for this race, who is trained by Jane Williams. He has won over 2m on heavy ground but has never really looked like a horse for the shorter trips, even despite getting a win. He runs his best races at this track and I thought his chase debut at this venue was more than satisfactory. His jumping was great until the last fence when he was probably a little tired, so he can be forgiven for that. This is his first attempt over 3m, but unlike the Jeremy Scott horse, I think he has been crying out for this for a while. Even in his 2m race which he won, he was off the bridle and his stamina got him the edge. He just seems to be rushed off his feet a bit over shorter trips and that even happened last time out where he was the first off the bridle, but it wasn't the performance of a horse which didn't stay because he did stay on quite powerfully after jumping the last, so though this is a big step up in trip, I think this is what he needs and will bring out some improvement.
Exeter 3:00 – Law Ella 11/4 (1pt, most bookies)
I can probably narrow this race down to two or three horses who have a serious chance, if they don't win then it'll be a bit of a surprise. I like Law Ella for this race, which might seem boring because it's an obvious angle going for the Irish horse making the trip to Exeter, but I just think she is suited to this race better than the others.
She made a nice chase debut last time out at Thurles, she beat a couple of decent Irish handicappers, one of the closer finishing horses has won since, but I wouldn't get too overly excited about the form, it was the manner she won. She travelled nicely into the race, jumped as well as you could expect for a debutante chaser, and I think she might be better over the shorter trip, better than her main rivals anyway. She is a pretty versatile mare and can run over a number of trips but she has always had plenty of pace about her as she showed when finishing 2nd to Ashroe Diamond in the Mares Grade 2 at Aintree in 2022. That race has worked out nicely with the 3rd now being rated 120, 5th is rated 137, 11th rated 124 and there's even more in there. Gavin Cromwell has shown that he doesn't mess around when sending his horses to the UK, especially Cheltenham over the last few years, he's had some winners at the November meeting last week which proves that. I think he sees a great opportunity for some Class 1 winning blacktype for this mare, and I tend to agree.
Lady Adare will be fancied to run well having run Knapper's Hill to a decent win at the Grade 2 at Wincanton the other weekend, but I'm not so sure that this drop in trip is what she wants. She is a very good mare, but she was probably flattered to get as close as she did last time out.
Plumpton 1:40 – Martator 7/2 (1pt, Bet365/PaddyPower)
I put Martator up on seasonal reappearance when he ran at Aintree, his jumping was appalling to say the least but I thought he shaped with plenty of encouragement and something to build on for the future.
You don't need to be a brain surgeon to figure out that Venetia Williams' horses are running out of their skin at the moment and it's normally the case at this point in season that she really starts to get into gear and unleash some of her better-handicapped horses. I definitely believe this horse is much better than his current rating of 119, especially when you consider he was 142 over hurdles when she acquired him from France and when you delve into the French form, he is a very smart horse.
This lad finished 3rd in a Grade 1 over 2m 4f, and to put it in perspective, none of these would've gotten close in that type of Grade, even in France. The winner of that Grade 1 is expected to come over to the UK for the Cheltenham Festival and is one of the big fancies for the stayer's hurdle, to the fact that Martator was 3rd to that horse and was recording an RPR of 142 shows how well handicapped he is. I've had a winner with this profile from this stable, where his form looks shocking on paper but his handicap mark now from what it was when she first got him is much lower and they can capitalise on it.
Plumpton 3:20 – No Risk With Lou 9/4 (1pt, Bet365)
If No Risk With Lou gets a lead in this race then I think it could be over before it's even started, as long as he jumps as well as he did last time out on chase debut at Huntingdon.
He put in a perfect round of jumping, was low and nimble over the fences and didn't spend much time in the air, which is always a bit risky but it gives you the edge and takes lengths out of the rivals. I don't really rate the others in this race, so 9/4 seems a fairly solid bet.
Red Windsor will be better than last time out, but I wouldn't say he's on a particularly good mark as his better runs over hurdles were with a 7lb claimer on his back. Glitche Gumee is making his seasonal reappearance as well as his chase debut, so if he's going to be playing catch up behind No Risk With Lou, he'll have to be spot on. The Gary Moore stable are seriously out of form so you can swerve his runner, with Aviles likely to be a non-runner, which leaves Kotmask as his sole chance in this. The Irish raider doesn't look great and will more than likely be a shorter price than what it should be as it's an Irish horse.
Exeter - 1:50 pm
7/1 @ Bet365
Exeter - 3:00 pm
11/4 @ PaddyPower
- 1:40 pm
7/2 @ Bet365
- 3:20 pm