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With the rain expected to come at Ascot, it's best if you manage to find horses who will handle cut in the ground. If you get on them early, you could get some decent value, as they will drop in price when/if it does come.
I decided to avoid Ascot yesterday, apart from the one punt in the Gold Cup, but today I like the chances of EVE LODGE.
There is a lot of forecast rain for Ascot, and I think that could play into the hands of this daughter of Ardad. She has had both of hers runs on slow ground, so it was not a surprise to see her swerve the Queen Mary earlier in the meeting, as the ground was good-to-firm. Although we've only seen her on slow ground, she looks extremely comfortable on it, and if the rain does come then she should be a huge player.
I recently watched an interview by SportingLife, as they interviewed Eve Lodge's trainer, and he was extremely bullish about this horse. He thinks that she will stay the 6f, even though she's looked pacey over 5f, but he also mentioned that she's been working very well at home, and will be very competitive in any race she ran in at Royal Ascot.
She handles this track, as shown when finishing 3rd on debut, which was a very eye-catching run as she was held up in last place, and didn't get a clear run of things, before running on strongly. The form has worked out quite well with Get Ahead since finishing 6th in the Queen Mary a couple of days ago. Connections also seem to think that her easy win over Sophie's Star at Lingfield is a good piece of form, as apparently the trainer and owners of that filly think highly of her, and she has finished runner-up again.
She is drawn in 13, which has been an advantage for most of the races on the straight track. But, if the rain comes, then the bias might change. Either way, Jamie will have her held up and making a late run, so hopefully he can judge which is the correct way to go.
Advised: Each Way
I was studying the French racecards a few weeks back and noticed SUESA was running, and I thought she would be a cracking selection for a write up, until she opened up at odds on. Nevertheless, I did watch her race despite not backing her at short odds, and she hosed up without being asked for her maximum effort. I think she is a Group 1 filly, but I didn't expect to see her running at Royal Ascot, but I'm glad she is, as I think she has a strong chance of winning this Commonwealth Cup, especially if the rain arrives.
Suesa is currently four wins from four runs, with all of her runs coming on slow ground, which is why it is important that the forecast rain arrives. If it does, then I imagine her price will shorten, so I'd encourage you to back her as soon as possible, if you're following the selections. The form of her wins has worked out quite well, with the recent second finishing horse, Louliana winning a Listed race since. Suesa's win at Chantilly in the Group 3 has produced a Group 3 winner, which came from the horse back in third.
If you have managed to watch her wins, you'll realise she wins them extremely easily and looks a class above from what she's raced against. This race will obviously be her toughest assignment, but based on what we've seen of her, she could be up to it. I feel like connections could've kept her in France and aimed her at sprint races over there, so the fact they're bringing her over to England and putting her in with the boys, shows the amount of confidence they have.
She is drawn in 8, with pace either side of her, so William Buick will have to determine which is the side to go to, as I'm sure they'll split. I expect her to be played late on.
Campanelle will be strong in the market, but I'm not convinced on her form.
Advised: Each Way (5 places Paddypower, I understand this is not an EW play for everyone, but with the extra places, if she places it's virtually a bet to nothing)
A big outsider for the Coronation Stakes, and I wouldn't blame anyone for not backing her on the result of her last run, but I'm willing to give LULLABY MOON another try.
There is a chance that she hasn't trained on, which happens to a lot of good 2yo's as they are generally more forward at that age, and when they race at three, the rest of the pack catch up with them. However, the run in the French 1000 Guineas seemed too bad to be true. I tipped her up for that race as well, and she was supported a little in the market, going off at 11/1. She was wide throughout, and extremely keen, which made her task much harder than it already was. I'm willing to put a line through that race, and give her another chance.
She is a filly who was very good on soft/testing ground last year, so the forecast rain is a big benefit. She will be weak in the market, as she has a lot to prove after that run, but with 4 and 5 places on offer, she could definitely run into a place, at the very least, if returning to form.
Rossa Ryan who rode this filly last year, was extremely excited about potentially get back on this horse this year, which gives me the impression that she has trained on, but for whatever reason, something was amiss last time in France.
She likes to be handy, so the wide draw in stall 12 isn't kind. However, horses drawn to the inside of her are generally held up, so she should be able to get a positive position if breaking on terms.
Advised: Each Way
AADDEEY must have a cracking chance in the penultimate race on Friday, as his form seems to be rock solid.
On his most recent start, he beat Rodrigo Diaz by 4.5 lengths, and it was extremely easy. Rodrigo Diaz was a recent winning tip for us, as he franked that form by winning easily for us at Doncaster. The horse back in 3rd has also ran some nice races in defeat, which strengthens the form. Before he won at Newbury, he finished second to a well handicapped horse called Flyin' Solo, trained by David Menuisier. That horse has since won again in good fashion. The form of that entire race has seemed to work out extremely well, with horses back in 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 13th, 14th all running well in their next runs, or either placing, and the horses who finished 10th, 11th and 12th have all won since!
He is well found in the market, as a lot of punters would've caught on to his good form lines, but I'm still a backer at the current odds. He has been raised 13lbs for his recent win, but he looks like a potential Group horse in a handicap, which is always something to look for, especially at this meeting.
The ground is an unknown, if it goes soft, but his pedigree suggests he should be able to handle it.
Advised: Each Way (5 places most firms, 4 with Bet365)
I'm hoping that WARRIOR BRAVE will be fresh and rearing to go, as he only raced 6 days ago, if he is, then he has the capabilities of running a huge race.
The race in which he ran in last time out is deemed to be good form, as the winner of that race was second to Winter Power the time before, so the fact Warrior Brave got within 0.75 lengths of him, was a good effort. For that run, he is going to be put up 7lbs in the handicap next week, so he is 7lbs well in for this race, which is why they have been tempted to have a crack at Royal Ascot.
Though he'll have to prove that he handles the ground if it was to turn soft, I think he'll handle it. If anything, it could suit him, as it would bring his stamina into play over the 5f, which he seems to stay very strongly, which was on display again last time out where he was off the bridle quite early, but powered on and ran on strongly at the end. In what should be a blistering pace, I think he can pick up the pieces late on.
Advised: Each Way