A cracking days racing on Sunday with Group 1 action over in France, and Class 1 racing in Ireland.
AIR DE VALSE looks to have a strong chance in the opening race of the French Guineas card.
This filly ran many good races last season, especially putting up a good effort in the Prix De l'Abbaye where she finished 6th, 2.25 lengths behind the winner. That is the best form on offer, when you consider, Glass Slippers who finished second, won at the Breeders' Cup in his next race.
Air De Valse's runs this season have progressively got better with every start, but she's probably not ran over her ideal trip of 5f. She doesn't seem to see out a 6f or 5.5f trip as well as she does over the minimum trip, so the drop back in trip should be better for her. She seems to handle any ground, so the fact the ground will probably be soft, shouldn't be an issue, if anything, if she gets an easy lead she could be hard to peg back on soft ground.
Advised: Each Way
Ralph Beckett was very adamant that LULLABY MOON was a very nice filly, but said that she needs soft/heavy ground if you want to see the best of her. Today, she should get the soft or heavy ground she craves, with a lot of rain due to fall.
She was entered in the English 1000 Guineas, but was withdrawn due to the fast ground, and she has been saved for this race today.
Last year she won a Group 3 at Chantilly, where she did it quite easily in the end, winning by 2 lengths. The 6th placed has since won the next three, including an easy success in a Class 1 Listed race.
The form of her other runs, including the 3rd behind Umm Kulthum is solid form. That horse was 3rd in the Chevely Park Stakes Group 1 last year, behind Alcohol Free, who has since ran well in defeat in the English 1000 Guineas.
I expect the ground to get very testing, especially at the time of the 1000 Guineas, with horses already been racing on the track, and this should suit the selection. Rossa Ryan who has ridden her to two wins said that her turn of foot on soft ground is very good, and that horses will struggle to keep up with that. At the odds, she offers good EW value.
Advised: Each Way
The form of his recent runs and his two runs during his juvenile season is enough to think that LOGO HUNTER is capable of winning a Listed sprint. These Listed sprints always look competitive in Ireland, as you have horses who normally compete in Group races, racing in them, but they shoulder high weights. Your usual competitors of Make A Challenge, Urban Beat and Downforce are always ones to take note of, but I think Michael J Browne's progressive and lightly raced 3yo will take the beating, if handling the ground if it gets soft.
On debut he finished behind Aloha Star, that filly has since finished 3rd in a Group 1. On his second start he finished behind Measure Of Magic & Miss Amulet, one is now a 2x Listed Winner and is rated 106, the other is a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed, 110 rated. In his 3yo campaign so far, he won 2x and been runner-up 2x. The win over Mooneista has been boosted as the runner-up has since won a Listed race, beating some of the horses in today's field. Last time out, Logo Hunter finished behind Measure Of Magic again, which is no disgrace, as he is a progressive sprinter.
As a 3yo, he gets the weight for age allowance, meaning he gets weight all around, 3lb being the lowest and 11lb being the most. My only slight concern is the ground. With four places on offer, I'd side with an EW play (you decide whether you want to play it to win or EW, don't have to follow my strategy).
A CASE OF YOU looked to be a sprinter on the up, until he was put in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown, where he was well fancied, but he was too keen and didn't settle. The drop back to 6f is definitely the correct decision, as he looks to have a cracking turn of foot.
The win over Logo Hunter at Dundalk looked easy, as soon as Ronan Whelan pressed the accelerator, he flew home, and that looked to happen with no effort whatsoever. The form of that race has worked out well, as you can see with me tipping Logo Hunter in the previous race.
The soft ground won't be an issue, as he's won on soft before at the Curragh, and Down Royal. I'm hoping he settles better today, and that should be enough for him to run a massive race.
14:35 Cartmel - Race: 5
14:45 Yarmouth - Race: 6